Commodities Recovery: An FX Game Changer?

Lior Alkalay - Contributor - Forex

It's been less than a week since the big chiefs of the commodities world met at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland, situated along the beautiful banks of Lake Geneva, yet already the markets have begun to adjust its collective expectations. So what's all the fuss about?

Quite simply, all of the commodity moguls, from Gunvor to Glencore to Vitol, all among the largest private companies in the business, have proffered one clear message and it is this: That they, nearly to a one, expect a healthy recovery in commodity prices. With all of the big shots expressing an upbeat view it becomes clear that they are acting on far more information than the rest of us, as one might surely expect, as being in the commodity business allows them ready access to more tangible and viable data. That nearly unanimous upbeat tone should be taken as a rather clear sign that we are about to see a bounce back in commodity prices. Surely, with currencies such as the Aussie, Kiwi, Loonie and the Norwegian Krone, and many more currencies beyond those, being highly sensitive to commodities prices, we are likely to see perhaps a significant impact in the FX arena.

Two Big Predictions

Although the talk at the Commodities Summit was on commodity prices, in general, it was evident that two sectors had drawn more attention than the others. Oil, naturally, because of its importance to the global economy but also Iron Ore, a key ingredient in the making of steel and one of the major commodities exported to China. Continue reading "Commodities Recovery: An FX Game Changer?"

Stocks Peak One Year After Bonds (History Set to Repeat?)

Financial parallels between the 1920s and today

By Elliott Wave International

When the financial media mentions the late 1920s, they usually mean the 1929 stock market top. But today's investors can also learn from what happened in 1928. That was the year that the bond market topped, while commodities peaked even sooner.

You can see this for yourself in a chart published in the September 2013 issue of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

In the deflationary collapse of 1929-32, commodities fell
from lower peaks, not higher peaks; stocks fell
from all-time highs down to the bottom; and bond
prices fell from an all-time high a year earlier.

The Elliott Wave Theorist, July-August,

These markets could see a similar outcome in the near future: Commodities peaked in 2008, while Treasury bonds topped in 2012. The high in the Dow Industrials remains December 31, 2013. Continue reading "Stocks Peak One Year After Bonds (History Set to Repeat?)"

Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction

The 'Commodity' segment, excerpted and expanded upon, from NFTRH 251:

The commodity complex is famous for a sort of 'Whack-a-Mole' quality to it.  Do you remember back in the go-go days when it was NatGas (2005)?  Uranium (2007)?  Crude Oil (2008) and then a cluster of Copper (2011), Grains (2011) and Silver (2011)?

Well today none of them are doing much.  Oil went up but could be topping, Copper went down but is bouncing hard, Uranium, Gas and Grains are nowhere.  The result is this… Continue reading "Commodities, Precious Metals and Economic Contraction"

Here's How To Profit From The Disconnect In Natural Gas

By: Street Authority

A rising tide doesn't always lift all boats. The major stock indexes are up 10% or more this year, but as I recently noted, it has been a brutal few months for commodities. But at the time, I saw a small silver lining.

"These are the kinds of commodities you need to keep tracking, because lower prices counterintuitively set the stage for the next bull market in commodities," I wrote, citing iron ore as an example. However, I overlooked an even more glaring example of how slumping commodity prices can impair production, which leads to an eventual pricing rebound.

I'm talking about natural gas, which has been on fire in the past year.

Simply put, in the spring of 2012, few people saw this kind of move coming. Continue reading "Here's How To Profit From The Disconnect In Natural Gas"

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Gold Is Plunging -- Which Commodities Are Joining It?

By: Street Authority

Although the U.S. stock market has generated a healthy glow this year, the commodity complex appears to be entering into a growling bear market. Just consider these stats:

  • After a sharp drop on April 15, gold has plunged nearly 20% since the year began and nearly 30% since hitting an all-time high of around $1,900 per ounce in the autumn of 2011.
  • West Texas crude oil has slipped from $97 per barrel to $87 in just the past two weeks.
  • Copper has slid roughly 12% this year and is off roughly 27% since the summer of 2011 peak.
  • If aluminum breaches the 80 cents per pound mark (it's currently at 82 cents), it will see its lowest levels since the summer of 2009.

Unless these commodities quickly stabilize, they will all start to break key resistance levels and head even lower. Yet it's unwise to lump all commodities together, and the factors affecting one of them is quite distinct from all others. Continue reading "Gold Is Plunging -- Which Commodities Are Joining It?"

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