Copper Update: Follow The Crude?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


Old trading wisdom says, "The Trend is your friend." I hope that you also prefer trending markets as it is the clearest action of market unity. I was patiently waiting for the upside move in oil to exhaust itself and see a clear break of the trend with a daily close and the following open to be below that close. And it happened today. So let's think about the coming opportunities.

Chart 1: Copper-Crude Oil Correlation: Gap Closed

Chart of the Copper-Crude Oil Correlation
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Oil finally managed to close the gap with the copper thanks to a very sharp trend amid a flat move in copper. Although copper peaked earlier than oil, the former started down first, as usual. They began to diverge again as oil fell below the blue support line while copper bounced up from its Thursday low. We will see if oil is still an early indicator of the copper move and if will they both hit new bottoms.

I refreshed the daily charts below to show you the recent moves in detail. Continue reading "Copper Update: Follow The Crude?"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been a Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 35.92 while currently trading at 38.90 a barrel up around $3 for the trading week continuing its bullish momentum as prices have now hit a 9 week high. Crude is trading above its 20 day but right at its 100 day moving average as the trend is still relatively mixed in my opinion as the commodity markets in general have all bottomed out as volatility certainly has come back into the currency market pushing the commodity markets like a yo-yo in recent weeks. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Copper Update: Flying High!

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


We have experienced an interesting time recently; almost every commodity is volatile and that provides excellent trading opportunities. Last month I refreshed the copper chart to show the miscorrelation of the two assets and, this time, we can see positive changes in the correlation.

Chart 1. Copper-Crude Oil Correlation: Distant But Synced

Daily Chart of the Copper-Crude Oil Correlation
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

As you can see in the chart above, both commodities reversed to the upside on the 11th of February (highlighted with the blue dashed vertical line). Copper managed to shape a higher low and crude oil hit the previous low level, making a new multi-year low, I doubt that we have seen the bottom yet.

Oil won back some disparity, but the gap is still broad and the overall move is flimsy with many zigzags on the graph line. Usually, “black gold” catches up with copper in a few large throws. Copper was less lucky and advanced only 6% compared to the 11% gain of crude. Continue reading "Copper Update: Flying High!"

Copper Update: Bottomed?

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals


If you have read my last update on this metal, you should be aware of a recent miscorrelation between the two core assets. You will see in the chart below that my bold expectations for a rapid recovery of oil didn't come true.

Chart 1 Copper-Oil Comparative Illustration: Investors Choose Metal Over Oil

Comparative Chart of Copper and Oil
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

Neither the first interim low in the middle of December nor the second low in the middle of January could make the much anticipated V-shape rocket reversal. The main reason for that is the oversupply of the oil market. There are rumors that OPEC will soon reach a deal with Russia to cut production for their mutual benefit. This, of course, will cause the price of oil to rise. I think this is a temporary measure and after the short-term rise we will see the price of oil drop again, but it could take some time happen. Continue reading "Copper Update: Bottomed?"