It's only the middle of the year, but we've already seen quite a lot, even for the seasoned investor.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kicked off the ball in January for what has proven to be a nightmare year thus far. It's caused a lot of tears and fears among investors, some of them went bankrupt in one day after it let the franc go.
Greece and it's possible leave of the single currency zone has been dubbed the "Grexit." It's added turmoil to the markets over the last month with currencies crosses opening with gaps on the last two consecutive Mondays. The single currency zone has never been so vulnerable from the day of its launch, as Greek precedent can find followers and bring Germany a lot of headaches furthermore.
The United Kingdom also played its role with the Queen's speech this May containing words of possible divorce with the European Union in 2017, which was named "Brexit" (Britain's exit) a la Grexit.
All of the cases mentioned above are episodes of the world currency war and the first prey of it is the European single currency that has been damaged a lot. Continue reading "Year Of Shocks: Which Of The Safe Havens Saved The Most?"
Are we experiencing the beginning of the end for the euro? For roughly three years, it seems as though politicians have been kicking the can down the road, putting off the apocalypse right at the last minute. And investors in the currency have had their patience stretched to the limit, vacillating between no hope and naivety that the Greek problem had gone away.
After Greece came Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland, but while the rest have been able to curb the risk and get a grip on things, the Greek problem has kept coming back. Now it seems that we've reached the end, the moment of truth, what investors have been dreading for the last three years – that Greece will eventually default and leave the Eurozone, and that it will spell the end of the euro. But now that the end has come, it seems as though investors have not only learned to live with the idea of a Grexit but to actually want it. The saying goes that you have to hope for the best and prepare for the worst, and more and more voices are indicating that some institutional investors are now hoping for the worst, for Greece to leave the euro. But why? Continue reading "Grexit: Hope For The Worst?"
It seems like this never-ending, ongoing Greek tragedy is like an Energizer battery as it just keeps going and going and going.
In order for something to qualify as a "black swan event", it has to come out of the blue and be a total surprise to the market. Certainly, Greece cannot claim to have just happened or come out of the blue. It seems like this train wreck of a country has been going on forever without a resolution. The fact that the markets are only down a bit as of this writing and have the potential to close unchanged indicates that most of the US equity markets have already discounted the "Greek Effect".
Today I will be looking at all the major indices and commenting on what has taken place. Continue reading "Greece Is Not A Black Swan Event"
Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com takes you through his thoughts and potential option trades for Gold and the Euro based on the Fed's decision and Greece's impending disaster.
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It was back on 13 April that I highlighted the breaking point for the dollar, which could lead to a dollar correction after a prolonged rally. What was that breaking point? If inflation gauges showed that the strong dollar weighed on the inflation outlook, then the dollar would begin its correction. And so indeed, shortly after, the dollar began to plunge against its European peer, the euro, as investors switched into euro longs and dollar shorts. The reason? Data suggested that the US economy wasn't growing as quickly as expected, and most inflation gauges suggested that inflation still wasn't returning.
And then, two weeks ago, the tide turned once again and investors began dollar buying once more as core inflation nudged up and the Eurozone, with the looming Greek crisis, seemed weak again. But is the dollar correction really over? Don't count on it… Continue reading "Dollar Correction Not Over"