The U.S. dollar is the primary benchmark for the expense of the time value of the money around the world. It affects all asset classes, and I want to analyze it to see if the speculation about the coming cycle of the rise in interest rates is valid or not.
The wise trader once said; “if you want to know the market trend just squeeze the chart to see the perspective.” I used that advice to focus on the long-term perspective, and in this post, I would like to share the result of my research in the three graphs below.
Chart 1. The Yield Of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Notes Quarterly: Downtrend Could Be Over Soon
Chart courtesy of stooq.com
The chart above shows the history of the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury notes (UST) from 1980 to present day. I chose that period to highlight the whole move down of the yield from the top in 1981 at the 15.84%. I chose this instrument as it is a benchmark showing investors’ sentiment about the future interest rates for the U.S. dollar. Continue reading "Gold And The Era Of Rising Interest Rates"→
OPEC agreed in Algeria to limit future oil production. This represents a major shift in the policy announced in November 2014 to compete for market share through lower prices.
The OPEC communique stated the group will retain output to a "target range of 32.5 to 33.0 million barrels per day" (mmbd). In the latest OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), OPEC reported that production average 33.4 mmbd in September. While that is not far above the target range, there are other problems looming on the horizon; several countries—Nigeria, Iran, Iraq, and Libya—all want to restore their output to levels they were at before their supplies were disrupted, and that could push OPEC’s output up to nearly 35 mmbd if they succeed.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih reversed KSA’s position from last April when it would not freeze output without Iran’s agreement to do the same. Instead, he said, Iran, Nigeria and Libya would be allowed to produce "at maximum levels that make sense as part of any output limits which could be set as early as the next OPEC meeting in November."
Oil has come a long ways, in really short order, rising from $26.21 on February 11 to over $38 as of March 31 (a 46% increase).
Hedge funds have become “as bullish on crude as they’ve ever been, according to the latest CFTC data,” said CNBC’s Melissa Lee on Wednesday.
Is the bullishness justified? Let’s try to sort all this out.
To start, here’s video of a Lee’s and Timothy Seymour’s CNBC interview of PR Advisors founder Robert Raymond. To me, Raymond’s analysis makes a lot of sense. See what you think. I’ve excerpted several statement from Mr. Raymond, followed by my comments (labeled Feik) to give you my view.
Raymond: “(The bullishness) is actually part of what has us concerned.”
Feik: I agree. John Templeton provided a favorite investing maxim of mine (and of many others) when he said, “Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” With so many people trying to bottom-fish in oil and energy right now, I don’t see the kind of pessimism or skepticism that sparks bull markets. So, like Mr. Raymond, that has me concerned. Continue reading "Oil And Trump Both Need To Pause And Catch Their Breath"→
How would you like to know exactly what to do the next day with any given market and the price you want to do business at? What if the odds are amazingly in your favor when you trade and approach the market this way?
Sounds like a no-brainer.
The trading approach I'm about to share with you is one that has proven to be successful in both bull and bear markets.
If this sounds like some "pie-in-the-sky," too good to be true idea - it isn't. I have been involved with the markets for many years and this is the one approach that I have seen consistently make money. In fact, it is the genesis of my success in the markets.
This trading approach produced gains of 65.3% and 77.1% last year. Was that a fluke or just sheer good luck? How much does luck count in the market? Very little in my opinion, what really counts is having an approach that is well thought out and has proven to be successful. Once again, luck has nothing to do with that. The only lucky thing is perhaps you're reading this post and beginning to understand that there is a way to make money in any kind of market.
This well planned out approach has produced gains in one of our strategies as high as 501%, with the lowest gain being 35.3% in 2010, it has never had a losing year.
As we begin the second quarter of 2014, I want to bring to your attention one of the "hidden jewels" of MarketClub.
A Portfolio With Results!
MarketClub's World Cup Portfolio (WCP) has never had a losing year in the 6 1/2 years that we have been tracking this portfolio.
When this portfolio was constructed almost 7 years ago, it was designed to include common elements that we thought would be important to the world. With an ever-expanding population worldwide, food is going to continue to be a major item. Likewise energy is going to play an increasingly important element in the world's economy. Over the years, the Dollar has also had its ups and downs and provided some great opportunities. Lastly, we looked at a store of value that has been in place since time begun and that is why we wanted to be actively involved in the movement of gold.