Each Week Longleaftrading.com will be providing us a chart of the week as analyzed by a member of their team. We hope that you enjoy and learn from this new feature.
Weekly Gold Report (October 14th through October 18th)
What can be said about the week that lies ahead? More of the same sounds about right. After Democrats and Republicans spent another full calendar week bickering and positioning, we seem to be no closer to a deal than we were in the prior week, and the threat of a default on debt continues to loom. Continue reading "Gold Chart of The Week"→
The Gold Report:You warn investors against trying to time the market. If even experts don't know a bottom until it's behind them, how do regular investors know when to invest, when to buy the next tranches and when to cut losses?
Louis James: The wisdom of not trying to time the market is tried and true. Benjamin Graham said the same thing 60 years ago. I shouldn't have to defend this premise. Even though investors all know it, they fervently wish it weren't so; they just can't help themselves.
You can't time the market. A bureaucrat in Washington can open his mouth and send the price of gold up or down 5% in an afternoon.
Fortunately, we can look for value. Value tends to be slippery in the junior sector when you have a bunch of companies that, as Doug Casey famously says, are little better than burning matches. They have no income. Even the biggest players in the field are so volatile that Benjamin Graham would never touch them.
However, there are things that we can look for. We can compare companies to their peers. We can look at the ounces in the ground and see if something is out of whack. We can look at cash in the bank. The market is so beat up now that some companies with viable projects are trading for cash or less. It's actually possible in a market this beat up to make relatively low-risk acquisitions. Continue reading "Casey's Louis James Warns: 'Don't Try to Time the Market'"→
The Gold Report: Ron, the Federal Reserve has decided to continue quantitative easing (QE) for the foreseeable future. Gold has risen steadily since that news. Is that what you predicted the Fed would do?
Ron Struthers: It is not that hard to predict the Fed's behavior when you understand what it's trying to do and how it's trying to do it. I do not take what they say literally, except within the context of its goals. The Fed is trying to instill confidence in the economy because of massive U.S. debt and its future debt appetite. The economy needs to improve for there to be higher tax receipts. We need foreign investment to finance the debt. If the Fed can convince Americans and those abroad that its bonds are the safest/most attractive, its stock market will have the best returns and that debt machine keeps running.
But the truth is that the economy is very weak. Employment is weak. Foreign investment has been fleeing. The Fed has to purchase $85 billion of debt a month because nobody else will. The Fed can't do this forever, and it knows it. It has to talk as if the economy is improving so the Fed debt purchases can end in the near future.
If you dig into what's really going on in the economy and markets, you'll find the underlying weakness that guarantees that QE will be here for a long time, as least as long as the markets themselves will allow it or are tricked into allowing it.
Yesterday was an impulsive looking move and something of a statement in itself. But now technically, the metals and miners need to gather themselves (after a potential pullback on profit taking) and make a real statement.
Yesterday was the booster stage (gap up), and another leg up from here would give the precious metals complex the velocity to do some real damage with respect to upside targets. That is because important resistance zones are now at hand. While a pullback would be normal, gold bugs obviously do not want to see a terminal velocity situation where yesterday’s momentum erodes beyond normal profit taking. Continue reading "Precious Metals Must Make a Stronger Statement Still"→
The Gold Report: Mike, the prevailing wisdom in the market favors producers over explorers in the precious metals equities. The thinking seems to be why buy the pasture when entire farms are selling at nearly the same price? What do you think of that strategy?
Mike Kachanovsky: That is a good summary of current affairs. Market values for the entire sector have been trimmed dramatically; even many of the highest rated stocks are down 50% to 60%. From a value perspective, it makes sense to buy higher up the food chain when you have the opportunity, to buy more established companies that offer legitimate earnings and established infrastructure.
TGR: Kenneth Hoffman of Bloomberg Research notes that production from the world's biggest gold mines has dropped 17% since early 2011. He predicts that gold mines, especially high-cost mines in Africa, will start to close as gold hovers around $1,200/ounce ($1,200/oz). Is there a bullish medium-term case to be made for gold given the shrinking supply?
MK: We have been through similar severe price corrections before. At the beginning of this century, gold's market value was below what it cost to produce it. Mines closed and companies went out of business. That scenario evolved into the bull market we have today and the achievement of all-time high metals prices.