The Greek government is running out of money and time. They need to agree to a deal with their Eurozone partners this weekend to secure the final part of its bailout loan and avoid defaulting on its debts. But without a deal, default could push the country towards leaving the Euro - a prospect that has become known as "Grexit".
What do you think?
As always, I would love to hear your thoughts on the looming Grexit. Please take a moment to vote on the poll and leave a comment.
It started in the Far East and was immediately picked up by the European stock markets with many of them soaring over 3% for the day. All of which was overshadowed by the Athens Stock Index which was up over 8%. Can anyone say happy days are here again?
It would appear to this observer that the world wants a positive outcome from this self-induced Greek tragedy.
Last week, on Thursday to be exact, you may remember buy signals were triggered on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ based on the Trade Triangle technology. That signal did not apply to the Dow which remains a laggard. The Dow could join the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ should it trade above 18,169 this week. As of this writing, the DOW is about 30 to 40 points away from giving a buy signal based on the Trade Triangle technology. Continue reading "Optimism For Greece - Can It Last?"→
It was back on 13 April that I highlighted the breaking point for the dollar, which could lead to a dollar correction after a prolonged rally. What was that breaking point? If inflation gauges showed that the strong dollar weighed on the inflation outlook, then the dollar would begin its correction. And so indeed, shortly after, the dollar began to plunge against its European peer, the euro, as investors switched into euro longs and dollar shorts. The reason? Data suggested that the US economy wasn't growing as quickly as expected, and most inflation gauges suggested that inflation still wasn't returning.
And then, two weeks ago, the tide turned once again and investors began dollar buying once more as core inflation nudged up and the Eurozone, with the looming Greek crisis, seemed weak again. But is the dollar correction really over? Don't count on it… Continue reading "Dollar Correction Not Over"→
Let's start with Greece. It is an ongoing disaster that nobody wants to face, especially the bankers who may have to take a 50% haircut on their loans, that's if they're lucky. I think it was Citibank's former chairman, Walter Wriston, that said, "Countries don't go bankrupt." Welcome to the real world Walter. Greece is going to default or there is going to be a revolution in the country.
That leads us to the Federal Reserve. I'm not sure they fully understand and know what they're doing. I think this grand experiment of quantitative easing has gotten way out of hand. In hindsight, it looks like the Fed got the country into something that we didn't have a plan to get out of. The answer to this conundrum was always down the line and some time in the future. The Fed has had over six years to figure this out and there is still no plan to get out of it. "More data" is another way for the Fed to say, "we don’t know!" Ben Bernanke is gone and now has a new job with a hedge fund and Janet Yellen, the new Fed chairwoman, is another disciple from the same school of thought that Ben came from. So, what do you think? Do you think the Fed has any idea what it's doing? Continue reading "There Is Not Much Difference Between The Fed And Greece"→
After nearly three years of extremely weak economic growth, the European Central Bank is finally delivering on Mario Draghi's pledge to do "whatever it takes" to get the region back on track.
The central bank is set to pump $64 billion into the economy through monthly bond purchases through September 2016. The quantitative easing program, alluded to in September, formally announced in January and started on March 9, may already be having an effect on the economy in terms of sentiment.
Q4 GDP growth of 0.3% beat expectations, and manufacturing data showed signs of life in March. Exports to the United States could get a big boost this year on a massive depreciation in the euro versus the U.S. dollar.
All things considered, I would say it could be a very good year for European stocks, and possibly most of 2016 as well.
There is one fly in the ointment. Greece is back in the headlines as officials were said to have informally approached the IMF to delay repayment on the country's debt but were denied. Thanos Vamvakidis, head of European G10 FX strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, said the country may run out of money if a reprieve is not granted at the meeting of eurozone finance ministers on April 24.