China 2017: More Boom Before the Bust

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


Despite the Yuan’s value recently plummeting to an eight-year low, the Chinese economy has been rather stable in the second half of 2016, manufacturing PMI held above 50 (above 50 signals expansion); exports reached $196.8 Bln in November(from $176.2 Bln in January); and in industrial production growth averaged 6.14% Year over Year.

Together, these changes all represent a strong indicator of growth - and of bounce-back - and all thanks to the Yuan. Or more accurately, to the Yuan meltdown. Even as the Chinese Yuan shed more than 7.1% this year, it allowed China’s exports to rebound and stabilize industrial and manufacturing production. But all that stability comes at a stiff price, down the line.

While a weaker Yuan helps exporting sectors, it causes problems in China’s domestic economy. In it, an exceptionally weak currency has the same impact as monetary easing, creating an inverse relationship where, when the Yuan’s value is eroded, China’s housing bubble swells.

The more China’s housing bubble swells, the more its debt problem becomes acute. And, ultimately, the more painful its bust will be. Continue reading "China 2017: More Boom Before the Bust"

Fed Paves The Way For Broad Dollar Rally

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The last FOMC meeting for 2016 has concluded, and the outcome is a slightly more hawkish tone than investors initially expected. The Fed has hiked the federal fund’s target rate by 25bps to 0.75% for the second time in two years. However, this hike was largely in line with the consensus expectations.

What caught investors by surprise was the revision of the Fed’s projection for rates in 2017. A revision that demonstrates that the median of estimates by the Federal Reserve members point to not two rate hikes, as in the September meeting, but three. Experience suggests that investors should take the Fed’s revision with a pinch of salt. After all, it was only this year that we witnessed the Federal Reserve revise its rate projections down, a move that followed an increase earlier in the year. And yet, judging by the reaction of Treasuries and the dollar, this revision is taken with some gravity. In fact, it paves the way for another dollar higher. The question is why? Continue reading "Fed Paves The Way For Broad Dollar Rally"

How The OPEC Deal Impacts The FX Arena

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


The much-anticipated OPEC deal to cut oil production has finally been reached. Brent and WTI Oil futures were not too late to react and jumped more than 7% with Brent Oil futures surpassing the $50 mark. And if momentum continues we could very well be looking at $60, perhaps rather soon. If that is the case, this can change the picture, not only for Oil futures and Oil companies but for currencies of Oil exporting countries, many of which were hit hard when Oil prices took a nose dive and could benefit now that oil prices are taking off.

The question is how exactly would an Oil rally play in petro-currencies in the current macro environment? Is it a good opportunity to buy into the battered Ruble? Or maybe a Norwegian Krona rally against the Euro? The options are numerous, but once we delve into the economic dynamics of each currency, the options narrow fast. Continue reading "How The OPEC Deal Impacts The FX Arena"

Euro: No Longer a One-Way Bet

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


It’s been barely five months since the Brexit referendum and yet here we are again, another European referendum, another political battle. This time around, it is Italy’s future in the balance and the Euro’s integrity at stake.

This upcoming referendum, due on Sunday, is a vote for constitutional reform that will abolish Italy’s dual parliamentarian system. Currently, Italy’s Parliament has two chambers, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. And, peculiar as it may sound, both have the same powers, but rather than balance they simply paralyze one another.

Why It Matters For The Euro

So, that begs the question, why is a referendum in Italy so important for the Euro? In one word: Banks. In the past few months, the Eurozone economy has started to show some signs of life. Among the data releases, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.7, retail sales in Germany has their strongest monthly gain in five years, and the Eurozone trade balance surplus rose by 37.8% over last year. Even in Italy, the Manufacturing PMI is holding above the 50 level, signaling expansion. All of which is "courtesy of a low Euro” that benefits European exporters. And yet, core inflation in the Eurozone is incredibly low at 0.8% and credit activity is weak, with the M3 level turning stagnant. Even the ECB’s €80 billion in monthly liquidity operations have thus far been insufficient to revive credit growth which is essential for the Euro recovery. At the heart of the problem is Europe’s banking system and its need to capitalize. Continue reading "Euro: No Longer a One-Way Bet"

Trumponomics, Bonds And The Dollar

Lior Alkalay - INO.com Contributor - Forex


President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration won’t take place for two more months and yet his proposed economic plan is already sending ripples through markets. Treasury notes and bonds are tanking, stocks are rallying and the Dollar Index has surged to highs not seen in more than 10 years. All of which is in utter contrast to what analysts had expected to occur post-Trump’s election, and which seemingly presents a paradox of sorts. Trump’s two economic focal points are aggressive tax cuts and massive infrastructure investment. Both are expected, according to The Office of Management and Budget, to push the US debt burden by roughly 25% of GDP by 2020. And yet, in conjunction with those expectations, the Dollar is gaining.

Naturally, the most obvious reason would be that higher deficits will lead to inflation and, consequently, would force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. But that is a consequence rather than a reason. The real reason is that both the US economy and the US banking system have been ripe for higher rates for a while, and Trump’s plans for the economy, or “Trumponomics” as we like to call it, is merely a catalyst for an already strong economy. Continue reading "Trumponomics, Bonds And The Dollar"