Today I'm going to be looking into the Dow 30 Index. This index is home to some of the biggest and most valuable companies in the world.
Using our Trade Triangle technology, you can quickly see that out of the 30 stocks that make up this index, just three stocks remain in a bullish trend. Out of the remaining 27 stocks, 6 are in a trading range and 21 stocks are in downtrends.
With two-thirds of the stocks in this important index in downtrends, this index is casting a shadow over the general economy.
The 3 stocks that remain in uptrends are rather mundane companies that have been around a long time.
Over the past few years, a predictable trend has dominated earnings season. Analysts lower their profit forecasts in the weeks and months ahead of quarterly results, and then companies manage to slightly exceed the lowered set of expectations. It's happening again.
According to FactSet Research, on an aggregate basis, analysts lowered Q3 profit forecast by 4.2%, slightly above the typical 2.7% downward revision of the prior 20 quarters. In theory, lowering the bar further should boost the chances that companies manage to exceed current consensus forecasts.
But the typical "cut and beat" game may not be the key theme this time around. As third quarter earnings season gets underway later this week (as Alcoa (NYSE: AA) weighs in on Wednesday, October 8), a range of cross-currents promise to make this one of the more unpredictable earnings seasons in quite some time. Both positive and negative factors are likely to keep analysts and investors on their toes. This is not time to take a casual approach to earnings season. After rising 6% in the first six months of 2013, the SP 500 rose less than 1% in the third quarter.