Technical analyst Jack Chan has examined the charts and says the gold sector is on a new major buy signal, which could signal a new bull market. But he is patiently waiting for confirmation.
The gold sector is on a new major buy signal, therefore opening the opportunity of a new bull market. However, Commitment of Traders (COT) data remains in bear market values and is now at levels of previous tops. I remain patient and wait for confirmation, which is when speculation according to published COT data has returned to bull market values, and the 2015 high in gold prices near $1,300/oz is exceeded to the upside.
$HUI is on a new long-term buy signal, ending the sell signal from early 2012. (See chart above).
This morning I actually got excited for a split second when the silver price shot northward to $15.85/oz and I almost fired off a tweet (can't believe I am actually using Twitter) saying that "Silver could easily become the Cartel's Achilles Heel" because as silver was creeping up, gold was sliding down, so these Criminal Cretins just continued to lean on gold down to $1,235/oz from $1,262/oz and the algo-bots did the rest with silver succumbing to the intervention/manipulation and now sits at $15.37/oz, down $0.23 instead of up $0.20.
All images/charts courtesy of Michael Ballanger
The blogosphere has been abuzz since the end of PDAC last Wednesday about the impending "Melt-Up" in gold and silver prices, and when I read the litany of rationale behind the impetus for the move, I thought I was reading an old archive from Harry Schultz in 1976. All of the Keynesian diatribe nonsense that gets shoveled in front of us day in and day out is all designed to deflect attention away from this massive global exercise in currency debasement, and thus far, it has been working. Stocks are at five-week highs and the Dow is again above 17,000 with the SP 500 sporting a 20-handle while Mario Draghi talks about the European Central Bank buying every listed stock on the European bourses. The policy "errors" coupled with moral hazard has been transformed into policy "madness" and moral "lunacy" as the bankers around the planet scurry about trying anything and everything to avoid the ultimate day of reckoningsovereign insolvency. So, in order to create an aura of calm and "business as usual," the first order of execution is always "Take care of that goddam gold market!" so sure enough, after a soft-ish close to the Crimex session, the Globex geek squad decided to play tap dance through the Access Market tulips and added another $10 downside between 1:30 and 4:00 p.m. when the GLD closed for the day. Continue reading "Zero-Hour For The Precious Metals…"→
In the previous post about ‘Gold Miners & Inflation’ it was mentioned that the 2013-2014 would-be bottoming grind in HUI has been almost exactly the duration of the 2010-2011 topping grind. Here is a visual to put with that statement.
The current yellow box is an exact duplicate of the 2010/11 box, which came with an over bought MACD crossed down. The breakdown candle implies that September would be the month that a break UP candle comes into play if this relationship has any predictive power.
Taking it further, as also noted in the previous post, the Ukraine noise does not help the sector and indeed could hurt in the short-term, because it keeps the wrong gold bugs on the tout. So NFTRH keeps open some minor downside targets.
Taking it further still, those downside targets would end up being buying opportunities if gold’s macro fundamentals start to improve, which despite the emails I get to the contrary, really has not happened yet beyond a few ongoing positives. But it had not happened yet in 2000 either.
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There is a growing presence out there talking about a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders (IH&S) on the HUI, which NFTRH has had going since mid-late last year. Below is a simple view of it, with last week's 'Week 2 down' making perfect sense (symmetrically speaking) with 'Weeks 1 & 2 up'.
NFTRH subscribers had a heads up (from both a sentiment and technical view) that it was time for traders to take profits and holders to prepare for corrective activity in and around the Ukraine hysterics that threw over the final upside (right side of the neckline). Continue reading "HUI Gold Bugs Index Symmetry"→