The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. It estimated stocks dropped by 45 million barrels in August to end at 3.120 billion, 179 million barrels higher than a year ago. It estimates that inventories peaked in May 2020 at 3.209 billion.
The EIA estimated global oil production at 91.55 million barrels per day (mmbd) for August, compared to global oil consumption of 94.31 mmbd. That implies an undersupply of 2.76 mmbd or 85 million barrels for the month. About 32 million barrels of the draw for August is attributable to non-OECD stocks.
For 2020, OECD inventories are now projected to build by a net 46 million barrels to 2.939 billion. For 2021 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 44 million barrels to end the year at 2.895 billion.
The EIA forecast was made incorporates the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook - September 2020"