As Trader's, we've experienced a lot of uncertainty recently around a pending global trade war. In fact, I have read that economists believe a full-blown trade war could cost the global economy $470 billion. Now that's a significant number, and it certainly could negatively impact your portfolio if you're not careful.
So how do you protect your portfolio and preserve capital?
The answer may have come from your Grandma; it certainly did from mine. She used to say this simple phrase to me on what seemed like a weekly basis, "don't put all of your eggs in one basket!"
Well, it turns out Grandma was right! Grandma knew a great deal about the power of diversification and how it reduces risk in different aspects of your life, and we can relate that directly to trading and investing.
It just doesn’t make sense to trade only one market. There is just too much risk and too little opportunity. A trader needs to stay flexible, and at the same time be diversified. Before we get into the meat and potatoes of market diversification, let's take a look at how the dictionary defines "diversification." Continue reading "One Word Can Protect Against A Trade War"
When doing some background research for this column, I came across this article in the May 12, 2017, edition of the Los Angeles Times: “Something Trump and Elizabeth Warren Agree On: Bringing Back Glass-Steagall to Break Up Big Banks.”
Whatever happened to that idea?
As kookie and wrong-headed on other issues as Senator “Pocahontas” often is, she’s at least been pretty consistent when it comes to her view of the banking industry (she doesn’t like it). And according to the article, she wasn’t alone in wanting to “break up the biggest U.S. banks.” Guess who else was on that list? None other than departing White House chief economic advisor Gary Cohn.
Trump himself said, “We’re looking at it right now as we speak,” referring to “going back to the old system” under the Glass-Steagall Act in which commercial and investment banking were separated. Continue reading "Be Careful What You Wish For"
The Biotechnology cohort has finally broken out and reached a 52-week high while making up much of the lost ground during the pummeling from both sides of the political aisle during the 2016 presidential race. Tweets and excerpts from the campaign trail from Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Donald Trump put the biotech cohort through the wringer via taking aim at drug pricing. The sustained sell-off lead to the entire cohort to sell off from all-time highs of $132 to $83 or 37% in only six months as measured via the iShares Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB). From February of 2016 through June of 2017 IBB traded in a tight range from $83 to $98 while Donald Trump continually fired shots against the healthcare sector. Any healthcare related stocks became volatile on the heels of any statement or tweet from Donald Trump. Shortly after the inauguration, Trump stated that drug companies are “getting away with murder” when speaking to the drug pricing issue. The previously proposed healthcare legislation never materialized thus a level of certainty has entered the picture, and the drug pricing threats are not perceived to be as bad as initially feared. Recently the index has had a resurgence moving to a 52-week high of $118 with a much clearer runway ahead as the political headwinds continue to abate. As the confluence of abating political threats, drug pricing certainty, merger, and acquisition activity ramps and continuity of the current health care backdrop, I feel the index has room to continue its upward trend and retrace its 2015 level of $130.
AbbVie Earnings Setting the Tone
AbbVie (ABBV) reported Q4 numbers that beat expectations and updated guidance above consensus estimates for 2018, and as a result, the stock moved up 14%. This earnings announcement stroked the entire biotech cohort and had pumped more life into the group that has seen a steady rise leading up to this statement. Other large-cap companies that have plenty of upside based on its multi-year highs include Celgene (CELG) which is off 35%, Regeneron (REGN) which is off 31% and Gilead (GILD) which is off 29% based on current prices. Even specialty pharma Allergan (AGN) is off a staggering 43% as well. All of these names may be due for a resurgence if quarterly results beat and guidance is raised similarly as AbbVie. Continue reading "IBB - Challenging 2016, Recovering 2017 and Resurgence in 2018"
On January 2, 2018, Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2018. “Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.”
Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2018 includes
“The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude moves above $80. The price rises because of continued world growth and unexpected demand from developing markets, together with disappointing hydraulic fracking production, diminished inventories, OPEC discipline and only modest production increases from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, and Iran.” Continue reading "Why $80 Crude Oil Is Highly Unlikely In 2018"
Now that the Senate has passed a tax bill and President Trump has signed off on it, investors should get ready for a few significant changes that are likely to begin happening. While the bill has been touted as a way to boost the economy and help the middle class, some economists disagree; mainly on the idea that if corporations have a lower tax bill, they will higher more workers and pay their current employee’s more money.
History has shown that when repatriated money comes back to US soil, it is largely used for share buybacks. In 2004 there was a one-time tax holiday when repatriation of foreign earnings was brought back home and taxed at a rate of 5.25%, not the usual 35%.
In 2004 fifteen companies brought back $155 billion, of the total $312 billion. Those 15 companies increased their share repurchases by 38% between 2005 and 2006. There was a clear correlation between share buybacks increasing the repatriation of overseas cash. Continue reading "New Tax Laws Could Mean a Boom for Stock Buy-Back ETF’s"