It’s been a mixed Q2 Earnings Season for the Gold Miners Index (GDX), with most producers posting solid operational results but revising cost guidance higher to reflect inflationary pressures. These pressures are related to fuel (diesel) and labor inflation, partially related to a tight labor market in prolific mining regions.
However, a few companies have bucked the trend, and others are in a position to claw back any margin declines experienced this year. These miners are the ones to own, and due to depressed sentiment in the sector, they’re trading at large discounts to their net asset value, with two being prime takeover targets.
Alamos Gold (AGI)
Alamos Gold (AGI) is a mid-cap gold producer operating in Mexico and Ontario, Canada, that has three mines and a development project in Manitoba.
The company was one of the few miners not to raise its cost guidance this year due to diesel hedges and operating high-grade underground mines. Notably, it’s also tracking nicely against production guidance, explaining the stock’s sharp rally following its Q2 results.
However, the real news for AGI was the release of its Island Gold Phase 3+ Study, which has outlined an operation capable of producing over 270,000 ounces per year at all-in sustaining costs below $600/oz.
This would make its Island Gold Mine (130,000 ounces per annum at ~$900/oz currently) one of the lowest-cost mines globally and a top-5 in Canada from a profitability standpoint. I believe this is a game-changer, but due to the poor sentiment sector-wide, the stock has not enjoyed the premium it should for this news.
Assuming the expansion is successful and the company can receive permits for its Lynn Lake Mine in Manitoba, Alamos has a path to become a 750,000-ounce producer at sub $850/oz costs by FY2027 a major upgrade from 460,000 ounces at $1,200/oz currently.
This should command a large premium to net asset value ($11.00 per share), yet it trades at a discount at a share price of $7.40, making this a rare opportunity to pick the stock up on sale. Continue reading "Gold Stocks Trading At Deep Discounts"