China Cancels Visit Causing Markets To Fall

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks fell to their lows of the day when news that Chinese trade officials canceled a visit to U.S. farms in Montana. Deputy trade negotiators from the U.S. and China resumed face-to-face talks for the first time in almost two months. The deputy-level trade talks are expected to help lay the groundwork for high-level negotiations early next month. This briefly lifted investor sentiment around trade talks.

Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars' worth of one another's goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.

The Dow traded 130 points lower, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.5% and the Nasdaq dropped 1%. For the week the major indexes will post their first weekly loss in over three weeks. The S&P 500 will lose -.30%, the DOW has the most significant losses with a loss of -.66%, and the NASDAQ brings up the rear with a weekly loss of -.49%. The Dow came into Friday's session 1.1% removed from its all-time high while the S&P 500 was 0.7% below its record mark from late July. The Nasdaq remained 1.9% away from its record.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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As Expected The Fed Cuts Rates

Hello traders everywhere. As expected the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points to a range of 1.75 - 2.00%. This cut is the second cut that Fed has implemented in 10 years, the first rate cut came back in July when the Fed cut the rate by 25 basis points to a range of 2.0% - 2.25%.

The market was clearly disappointed by the 25 point cut as it was expecting or hoping for a 50 point cut. The S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ have all headed lower on the day with the NASDAQ leading the way losing -1.0%.

Though the U.S. economy continues growing at a "moderate" rate and the labor market "remains strong," the Fed said in its policy statement that it was cutting rates "in light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures."

With continued growth and strong hiring "the most likely outcomes," the Fed nevertheless cited "uncertainties" about the outlook and pledged to "act as appropriate" to sustain the expansion.

New projections showed policymakers at the median expected rates to stay within the new range through 2020. However, in a sign of ongoing divisions within the Fed, seven of 17 policymakers projected one more quarter-point rate cut in 2019. Continue reading "As Expected The Fed Cuts Rates"

New Highs On The Horizon

Hello traders everywhere. Once again we are on the verge of new all-time highs for both the S&P 500 (3,027.98) and DOW (27,359.16) as both indexes along with the NASDAQ will post their third straight week of gains. Even though the markets overall will end the week mixed on a daily level, all three indexes will end the weeks with gains of +1.1%, +1.6%, and +1.2% respectively.

Will we see record highs on Monday when trading opens?

Crude oil is going to post a weekly loss of roughly -2.8% as trading closes Friday. This drop is a reflection of how fears of excess supply continue to keep crude prices down even as hopes for coming trade talks boost the outlook for the global economy. And although oil prices have rebounded this year, they are down about 20% in the past year, compared with a nearly 4% climb in U.S. stocks.

Bitcoin continues to disappoint as it's trapped below the $11k market and after posting a weekly gain of +9% last week it gave back a bit of that move this week losing -1.8% trading just above the $10k level at $10,300 right below its 50-day MA. We will need to see a move above $10,949.00 for a potential breakout and move higher.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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Market Breaks Out Of Trading Range

Hello traders everywhere. In Wednesday's video, I discussed how the market had been stuck in a trading range for the last month and that we needed to see a move above the 50-day MA to potentially see a move higher. Well, we got that move on Thursday when the news of an agreement between China and the U.S. to set a meeting for trade talks hit the wire resulting in a big move higher which resulted in three new green weekly Trade Triangles being issued for the S&P 500, NASDAQ and DOW.

The market is ending the week relatively quiet as the U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in August, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected jobs to grow by 150,000 last month. Unemployment remained steady at a rate of 3.7% while wages rose more than expected. Wages expanded by 0.4% on a month-over-month basis and by 3.2% year over year. August marked the third straight month that job creation in the U.S. slowed. In June, 178,000 jobs were added while 159,000 were created in July.

After four straight weeks, of declines, the major indexes are looking to post consecutive weeks of gains with the S&P 500 gaining +1.8%, the DOW +1.5%, and the NASDAQ will post a weekly increase of +2%. Will we continue to move higher from here or is just a short-term bump?

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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Trapped In A Trading Range

Hello traders everywhere. There was no doubt that the market would bounce back today after a losing day on Tuesday, after all, that's the cycle we've been in for a while now. But more importantly, it's the trading range that we're currently stuck in. Not familiar with the term "trading range?"

A trading range occurs when a security trades between consistent high and low prices for a period of time. The top of a security's trading range often provides price resistance, while the bottom of the trading range typically offers price support. In this case, we will be looking at the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. With that definition mind, let's take a look at the major indexes.

All three major indexes, the S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ, are all stuck in a trading range between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This range began almost exactly one month ago on August 5th, where we saw all three indexes lose roughly -3%. The NASDAQ led the way with a daily loss of -3.4% with the S&P 500 and DOW close behind with losses of -2.9%. Since then they have failed to break out above their 50-day MA's, the level of resistance, while the 200-day MA is providing a level of support.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

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