Tag: S&P 500 (SP500)

United States Still Going Bananas

Posted on by Gary Tanashian

You see, it’s not a Trump thing. It’s an ‘America is so hopelessly indebted (as are other developed economies) that they have no choice now’ thing.

However, the election shakes out – most likely Democrat president and congress, Republican senate – the stock market is cheering two things in my opinion. It is cheering US dollar compromising fiscal stimulus (Fed prints, politicians spend) and the coming of more US dollar compromising monetary policy (Fed prints, Fed monetizes bonds AKA debt, Fed screws with any other esoteric tool it can get its hands on in the age of MMT TMM, AKA Total Market Manipulation).

I have a still profitable position against the Euro that is about to tick un-profitable this morning. That was my hedge against a firming US dollar, which is the anti-market to the US stock market especially, but also to many global markets because I am long US and global stocks. I may have to pull back to hedging stocks (including gold stocks) with high cash levels. So says the ongoing inflationary operation.

I had projected an A-B-C bear market bounce in Uncle Buck, just to keep the macro honest and put a spook into market bulls. But it appears – due to the joy breaking out everywhere – that I will have been wrong about ‘C’. That’s what this breakdown below support (now short-term resistance) says, anyway.

dxy market

We are going bananas not because Trump is/was just another politician when it comes to the modern American tradition of debt-leveraged inflation to disenfranchise the middle and poor and enrich the already spectacularly wealthy. We are going bananas because Continue reading "United States Still Going Bananas" →

This Is Why You Are Losing To The S&P 500 - Part 2

Posted on by Matt Thalman

In Part One, I discussed how heavily weighted the S&P 500's top stocks are and how, in reality, the bottom 200 stocks in the index don't even matter. Now I would like to talk about potentially better options than buying an S&P 500 index Exchange Traded Fund or mutual fund but still being diversified in a large number of stocks, with a wide range of diversity and having a good chance of beating the S&P 500's returns.

The biggest issue with the S&P 500 is that the top stocks carry all the weighting. The bottom stocks don't mean much. Instead of buying the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), why not purchase something that doesn't hold as many positions and have all the assets focused on just the top companies. This way, when the bigger companies that mean more anyways move, you have more money in them. And since the larger companies are typically less volatile, your portfolio shouldn't have to worry about as many companies going bankrupt or falling apart as someone who owns the S&P 500 would have to be concerned with.

The first ETF I would like to discuss is the Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 ETF (XLG). The XLG is an ETF that tracks a market-cap-weighted index of the 50 largest US companies. In essence, it holds just the top 50 of the 500 companies that make up the S&P 500. The fund has a weighted average market cap of $668 billion and a yield of 1.34%. XLG also has an expense ratio of 0.2% and $1.65 billion in assets under management. XLG is up 19.19% year-to-date and more than 35% over the past 12 months. On an annualized basis, the fund is up more than 16% over the last 10 years, a figure that easily beats the market average of a little under 10%. Lastly, the funds top ten holdings represent more than 51% of the fund with Apple (AAPL) taking the top spot at 12.69% of the assets. Continue reading "This Is Why You Are Losing To The S&P 500 - Part 2" →

This Is Why You Are Losing To The S&P 500

Posted on by Matt Thalman

You recently looked at your very diversified portfolio and compared it to the return of the S&P 500 (SPY), and to your shock, you are underperforming the market. You start to wonder how that can be. You own quality companies and have held their own in 2020 if not even produced a nice return. You also own an excellent mixture of industries, whether it's through individual stock holdings or Exchange Traded Funds.

You are well diversified and have produced a good return over the years and stayed within the S&P 500. But now, all of a sudden, the market is bouncing your performance. Well, shockingly, this may not be because your portfolio isn't good. You haven't been diligent enough following along with your holding's performance and business strategies in the future.

It very well likely has nothing to do with something you may have or have not done. It is likely, the way the S&P 500 is structured and how your portfolio isn't structured.

The S&P 500 is structured by market capitalization. That means the largest companies from a market capitalization standpoint, in the S&P 500 carry more weight in the portfolio than companies that are smaller in terms of market capitalization.

For example, Apple (AAPL) is the largest company in the S&P 500, with a market capitalization of $2.13 trillion and has a 7.06% weighting in the S&P 500. The smallest company in the S&P 500 is Coty Inc. (COTY), which has a market capitalization of $2.83 billion and a weighting of 0.003679% in the S&P 500 index. Continue reading "This Is Why You Are Losing To The S&P 500" →

S&P 500 First To Trigger Weekly Exit

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The S&P 500 issued a new red weekly Trade Triangle today. Could this be the first step in a larger pullback for the market, and could it be signaling the end of the bear market rally?

How soon before the DOW and NASDAQ follow suit? Leave a comment and let me know.

S&P 500 Red Weekly TT

Did you get your email alert letting you know that the S&P 500 triggered a new red weekly Trade Triangle? See mine below: Continue reading "S&P 500 First To Trigger Weekly Exit" →

Election Year Cycles - What To Expect

Posted on by Chris Vermeulen

Every election year over the past five US Presidential election cycles has presented a unique set of price rotation events. Particularly evident in strongly contested US Presidential candidate battles where the voters are consumed with pre-election rhetoric. The 2007-08 election cycle was, in our opinion, very similar to the current market cycle in terms of consumer sentiment and economic function. The 2015-16 election cycle was less similar, yet still important for our researchers.

The economic conditions of the US economy and the global economy were vastly different prior to each US Presidential election cycle and continue to evolve throughout the current 2020 election cycle. Yet, our researchers believe the correlation of price volatility and rotation combined with the distraction for consumers as the election process occupies the hearts and minds of almost everyone across the globe takes a toll on the markets. Prior to almost any US Presidential, price volatility and trends tend to become much more exaggerated and extended.

We’ve published research articles about this technical setup/pattern that occurs in the markets nearly 8 to 15+ months before the US Presidential election cycle before. The basic theory of the setup/pattern is as follows…

  • 12+ months prior to the election date, the parties consolidate around specific candidates where the first battles of the US presidential election cycle conclude.
  • Over the next 12 months, the battle between the selected candidates becomes more heated and aggressive as voters are pushed information and disinformation related to their decisions.
  • The process of the election and the decision-making process for consumers/voters is very stressful and distracts from the normal economic activity for many. This distraction translates into an indecisive market where future expectations (optimism and pessimism) greatly depend on the outcome of the election. Thus, the markets are stuck in a “no man’s land” type of “stasis” waiting for the election event to conclude.

Depending on the events that lead up to the election date, the stock market could be biased towards a bullish trend or a bearish trend which can have a big impact on the pre and post-election outcomes.

S&P 500 Index 2006-09 US Presidential Election Cycle

Let's start by taking a look at the 2006-09 (2008 US election cycle) data/chart. Continue reading "Election Year Cycles - What To Expect" →