Tag: trend

RSI – Overbought, Oversold, or Overplayed?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

The RSI can be an essential tool in a traders arsenal when used correctly. The problem is that there are a million trading styles and there is no one, single way to use an indicator. So what works best for you? In our quest to bring you tips and tricks from some of the best traders of all facets of trading we have invited Mark Hodge, Head Trading Coach at Rockwell Trading as a guest today. Mark is going to share how he uses the RSI, and if you have a similar trading style it could have a profound impact on your trading.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RSI is an indicator that is often used to identify overbought and oversold conditions when trading. Unfortunately, most traders use this indicator too literally, and miss out on some of the biggest trends. In this article I will introduce how RSI is typically used, and share a different way to use this indicator that could have a significant impact on your trading.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is a popular indicator developed by Welles Wilder, and was first introduced in the book New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. RSI is a momentum indicator used to measure changes between higher and lower closing prices. Continue reading "RSI – Overbought, Oversold, or Overplayed?" →

Trader's Whiteboard: Lesson 2

Posted on by The INO.com Team

In the centuries that people have been trading and charting, those same people have noticed that the market will repeat itself time and again. By studying these patterns, they were able to ascertain that when X occurs, it’s a smart time to do Y.

Do you know what you’re looking at when you open your charts?

In this second installment of the Trader’s Blog Whiteboard Series, Adam shows you what you’re looking at, what it means, and how you can profit by paying attention to these formations.

There is no need to register to watch this series and please feel free to share with friends and fellow traders. Lesson 2 is waiting...

Enjoy!

The MarketClub Team

Widening Deficits

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Today's guest is Olivier Garret, CEO of Casey research. Oliver is going to give us his take on the ballooning deficit. Enjoy and be sure to leave us a comment giving us your thoughts on the deficit!

===================================================================

On March 20, 2009, the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its latest forecast in an effort to take into account the impact of the recently released Obama budget.  The verdict?  A whopping $1.8 trillion deficit for 2009, approximately four times larger than the all-time record established in 2008 ($455 billion).

The concerns raised by this latest forecast are many:
1)    A mere two months ago, the CBO’s estimate for 2009 was “only” $1.2 trillion. They have already grossly underestimated a deficit that will most likely continue to balloon in the coming months.

2)     While the new administration has focused its attention on the spending side of the budget, it has paid little attention to the other side of the equation.  What will happen when tax revenue comes in much lower than current projections?

3)    Even ignoring the likely expansion of the projected deficit, where will we get the $1.8 trillion needed to cover the CBO’s estimated deficit? Foreign investors? Higher taxes? Or that old standby, the printing presses?
Continue reading "Widening Deficits" →

The 3T’s of Trading

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Today I'd like you to welcome Geoffrey A. Smith, from Day Traders Institute. DTI has been a leading the way in trading education for years and I'm very excited to have Geoffrey, the lead instructor from DTI, join us today. Please take time and read the article below on "The 3T's of Trading", then visit the DTI to learn more about them as a company and how they can help you with your trading and investing.

==================================================================

As a trader and instructor, one of the most frequently asked questions I get is “where to take profit”? When I first was asked this, my initial response was “when you are making money”. But after pondering the question for some time, I came to realize that many traders struggle with taking profit hoping that the market would go further in their favor only to get stopped out for a loss. So to help traders with learning to take a profit, we came up with the 3T’s of trading:

Tick
Trade
Trend

Look to trade in thirds, taking 1/3 of your position down at a time. When using the 3T’s, the goal is to first finance the trade and let the last third pay as much as possible. Wouldn’t it be nice to trade with someone else’s money? Well, initially we have to put up the cash to get into the trade and take on the risk of losing money. But if we take enough of the trade off and adjust the protective stop to a point that the trade cannot lose, this eliminates our risk in the trade, relieves the fear of losing, and allows us the legal right to let greed set in.

The first T is the Tick part of the trade. Really it is a scalp, only looking for a small amount. If trading stock, take 1/3 of the position off at $0.30. If trading futures like the Emini S&P, look for 0.50 to 0.75 of a point. This accomplishes two things, it reduces your exposure to the market, and also allows you to pay commission.

The second T is the Trade. Look for twice as much as you got on the Tick part of the trade. Again, if trading stock, look for $0.60 or so. This will elevate 2/3 of the initial position and lock in $0.90. If you adjust your protective stop back $0.50 from current market, then you are on a “free ride”. At this point, you have no more risk in the trade and can concentrate on making money.

Finally is the third T, which is the Trend part of the trade. This is the last 1/3 of the position that we hope will pay the most. Sometimes you will get stopped out on the last 1/3, but other times the market will continue to trend in the direction you are trading and can end up making your whole day.

These price targets are not set in stone but examples of what you might look for. On a stock that is trading at 50, you can’t look for as much profit as one that is trading at 150 because of the price movement. You will need to adjust your profit targets accordingly. I will look at the ATR (average true range) of the stock and set my first target at 10 – 15%, second target at 30 – 40%, and look for the whole ATR on the last third. Some days the stock will get there, other days it will not, but at least the trade was financed on the way.

Give this technique a try and see how you like it. It helps in reducing the fear of losing and allows you to take some profits as the market trends in your direction. It has been my experience that the first target is hit 85% to 90% of the time, with the second target getting filled about 75% to 80% of the time. Not every trade goes in your direction, however, if 1/3 of the trade has been taken out of the market, then the loss has been reduced as well. Remember as traders, we want to make are losses small and our gains big. The 3T’s is one technique to help us get there.

Good Luck!

Geoffrey A. Smith
Chief Instructor – DTI

How to create an objective trading plan

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Today I'd like everyone to welcome back Dr. Barry Burns. He was a guest blogger a few weeks back and the overwhelming response was "we want him back"! So you asked for him, I called in a personal favor, and here he is again to help teach us.

================================================================

Traders who use technical analysis rely on charts to help establish a probability scenario for entering a trade.

We generally look at 3 things:

Price patterns.
Volume patterns.
Indicator patterns.

There have been countless books written and courses sold on how to use these things to predict future market movement. Despite this, countless traders continue to fail in their attempts to become profitable.

Why?

After years of watching my father trade (he had 70 years of experience in the markets) and many years of my own experience, I’ve come to this conclusion:

None of it works!

That’s right. I haven’t found a single price pattern or indicator that could accurately predict the future of the market with enough probability to make any money.

So, is technical analysis an exercise in futility?

Although I haven’t found any one single thing to prove profitable, favorable probability scenarios can be found by combining several indicators. However this has to be done in the right way.

I identify what I call the “energies” of the market, and have selected certain indicators to measure those energies.

5 of the energies are:

Trend.
Momentum.
Cycles.
Fractals.
Blockages.

The key to success is to wait until all 5 of these energies align telling you the same thing (“go long” or “go short”) at the same time.

Indicators measure these energies. Again, I don’t have much confidence in any single indicator. After all, they only do what their name says: They “indicate;” they don’t “tell” you what the market will do next.

However, when all 5 indicators align, and they each measure a different energy, then this is a time when the probability is now on your side.

You can even use this to “score” a trade on a scale of 1-5 depending on how many “energies” (indicators) align in the same direction.

You may choose to be very conservative and only take trades that are very high probability – so you’ll wait until all 5 energies align. The downside of this is that it doesn’t occur very often and therefore you won’t be very active in your trading.

You may decide you need more trades to be psychologically satisfied and keep your interest and focus on the market. In this case you could take trades that rate a 4 (4 of 5 energies align in the same direction at the same time). You will get more trades, but your
win/loss ratio will be slightly lower.

You can choose your favorite indicators to measure these 5 indicators. Which ones you use isn’t the most critical factor … as long as you know how to use them properly.

Using this approach gives you a very measurable and objective way to make decisions and track your trades.

BIO:
Dr. Barry Burns is the owner of Top Dog Trading which teaches people how to avoid the long learning curve in day trading, swing trading and investing.
He started his study of the markets under the direction of his father, Patrick F. Burns, who became independently wealthy through trading and had over 70 years of trading experience before passing away in 2005.
He has been the featured speaker at DayTradersUSA, and developed a 5 Day Course for WorldWideTrders.
Dr. Burns has been a headlining guest speaker for the Market Analysts of Southern California, given seminars around the country at many Wealth Expos as well as many Traders Expos, been interviewed on the Robin Dayne "Elite Masters of Trading" Radio Show, and is the former moderator of the FuturesTalk chat room.
He has a doctorate in Hypnotherapy and is a certified NLP practitioner, and therefore able to help people with the psychology of trading.