Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,302 while currently trading at 1,310 up about $8 for the trading week. Prices reacted positively off of the Federal Reserve statement that they will not raise interest rates for the rest of 2019 which is a fundamental bullish factor towards gold and the precious metals as a whole. Gold prices held major support a couple of weeks back at the 1,280 level as I still believe we will break the February 20th high of 1,349 in the coming weeks ahead. The Federal Reserve stated that there would be no more interest rates hikes in the near future as that is bullish commodities and stock prices in general as I see no reason to be short gold at these relatively inexpensive prices. Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is slightly higher as I will be looking at a bullish position if prices hit a four week high in next weeks trade as the chart structure is improving daily due to the low volatility. The U.S. dollar has sold off of recent highs as lower interest rates in the United States means a weak dollar which is also bullish gold.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract is currently trading at 1,304 after settling last Friday in New York at 1,299 up about $5 for the trading week bouncing off of major support. The precious metals continue in a longer-term bullish trend as I do think gold prices will break the February 20th high of 1,349 in the coming weeks ahead as there is strong demand. Gold is currently trading slightly below its 20-day moving average, but still above its 100-day as the trend is mixed to higher and the chart structure is starting to improve as the volatility remains low. The U.S dollar has put pressure on gold prices over the last month as that currency is right near a two year high. However, gold prices have held up relatively well and if you ever get some type of sell-off in the dollar that could propel prices higher. If you take a look at the daily chart, the trendline remains intact as palladium prices are right near an all-time high once again as that that is the leader to the upside. If you are bullish gold prices and you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under major support at 1,280 as an exit strategy as that would be a three month low. I would see no reason to be long if that situation occurs.
TREND: MIXED - HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: LOW

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract is currently up $13 an ounce at 1,298 after settling last Friday at 1,299 unchanged even though prices settled right at session highs today. Gold prices are trading above their 20-day but still below their 100-day moving average, and if you look at the daily chart, it basically mirrors exactly what silver has been doing as prices also topped out on February 20th at 1,349 as prices have now hit a two month low this week. The volatility in gold is starting to expand as I'm currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop, but I do think the downside is limited as there is a lot of uncertainty worldwide as Europe is also lowering its growth forecasts as that could send money flows back into the gold. The U.S. dollar hit a 2-year high this week, and that is why you witnessed around a $60 sell off or 4% from recent highs as I think gold prices have held up relatively well despite that fact so look to play this to the upside in my opinion.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Gold Sentiment Lesson

[edit] an article critical of (anonymous) others is an appropriate venue to once again note publicly the biggest mistake of my own, which was an ill-conceived target of 888 on HUI last decade. I learned from that. It’s okay to admit mistakes boys. We all make ’em. But as with humility, that appears to be all too rare in the market writer world as well. It’s okay to once in a while simply state “I was wrong”.

The number in the title is in honor of the boldest forecast burped up by the gold community in February as the metal (and the miners) jerked upward and jerked the holdout would-be enthusiasts into the market. It was included in the anonymous (but real) quotes from a cautionary post last week on the Gold Bull Horns.

We also used these quotes in an NFTRH update in order to try to make a point, despite what were very short-term contrarian bullish readings that day (per Sentimentrader’s data) for junior and senior gold miners.

From the update (2.28.19)… Continue reading "Gold Sentiment Lesson"

Gold Bullhorns Quieted For A Day, At Least

Over in the gold patch, things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.

Any long-time and right-minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence. Wednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.

Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.

In the very few days immediately before that $20/oz. pullback the gold “community” threw itself a gathering of the bullish clans. On just a quick look around the gold websites, some quotes popped out from 2 days before the pullback and one day before Wednesday’s reversal. It’s crickets no more… Continue reading "Gold Bullhorns Quieted For A Day, At Least"