Capping Off A Record Week For Stocks

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks continued their momentum Friday ending a record-setting week on a high note after testimony from the top Federal Reserve official signaled that a rate cut was coming.

The Dow climbed +180 points to an all-time high. The S&P 500 traded 0.3% higher and also reached a record. The Nasdaq was up 0.4%.

The S&P 500 also notched a record close trading above $3,000 for the first time this week and looked to close above that level as near the close of trading this afternoon. The Dow closed above 27,000 for the first time Thursday and continues to trade above that level this afternoon.

The major indexes were headed for slight weekly gains. Entering the afternoon session, the Dow is up +1.16%, S&P 500 is up 0.5%, and the NASDAQ is up 0.47% while giving us a new green weekly Trade Triangle joining its brethren.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of congressional leaders this week that "crosscurrents" from weaker overseas economic activity and rising trade tensions are dampening the outlook on the U.S. economy.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Every Success,
Jeremy Lutz
INO.com and MarketClub.com

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the June contract is currently trading at 1,295 an ounce unchanged for the trading week as the trend remains sideways. If you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under major support which now stands at 1,284 as an exit strategy as I still have a bullish bias towards gold, but the risk/reward is not in your favor to take a position at this time. Gold prices are trading slightly under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is lower to mixed as prices have gone nowhere over the last three months. Volatility remains average as prices topped out last month slightly above the 1,350 level as I still think longer-term gold prices look attractive. However, all the interest remains in the U.S. equity market which is hovering right near all-time highs once again. For the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the March 25th high of 1,330 in my opinion so be patient and let's see what next week's trade brings as I do believe bullish trends across the board will start to develop soon.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup

From a post on gold and silver on Tuesday…

Very simply, if it’s an H&S it’s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support. Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. Otherwise, don’t personalize it. A test of the SMA 200 would be normal.

The H&S was not my thing. I tend not to get overly excited about short-term patterns and surely do not announce them far and wide to stir people up. It was a product of the gold community, some members of which have been flipping in head-spinning fashion between bullish and bearish views. I note it again because I don’t want that stink on me. The upside and downside parameters above were my stuff.

Per the NFTRH Trade Log, I shorted a chunk of GLD yesterday (while remaining long gold stocks and even more so, cyclical assets on balance) as gold poked the SMA 50 per the Futures chart below. Gold’s pullback today was not engineered by the Fed or da Boyz or da PPT, PtB, Trump, Mnuchin or some nefarious super algo. It’s normal. Okay, conspiracy mongers? N.O.R.M.A.L.

Click the chart for a clearer view of gold’s situation at the SMA 50. If it does not clear the March high the SMA 200 (at least) continues to yawn with its gaping maw. 1240 is also doable.

gold

Silver looks particularly lame, but ironically this is the metal I am expecting to bottom first with the question being the two noted (green) support areas. Don’t rule out 14.50. Continue reading "Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.40 an ounce while currently trading at 15.16 down about $0.24 for the trading week bouncing off of major support which was also right near a three month low. I don't have any precious metal recommendations as silver continues to remain in a choppy chart pattern as we are now trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned to the downside. However, I do believe the downside is limited. The U.S. dollar is right near a two year high this week as that is what has put pressure on silver and the entire precious metal complex as there are very few strong trends out of the commodity sectors at this time. If you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under today's low as an exit strategy of 14.95 because if that level is broken, you do not want to have any type of bullish position in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Yield Curves, 2-Year Yield, SPX (and a crack up boom?)

While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues…

30yr yield minus 5yr yield

The more commonly watched 10-2 year does this, implying ongoing Goldilocks…

yield curve

While the nominal 2-year yield does this, implying “ruh roh!”Continue reading "Yield Curves, 2-Year Yield, SPX (and a crack up boom?)"