Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the June contract is currently trading at 1,295 an ounce unchanged for the trading week as the trend remains sideways. If you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under major support which now stands at 1,284 as an exit strategy as I still have a bullish bias towards gold, but the risk/reward is not in your favor to take a position at this time. Gold prices are trading slightly under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is lower to mixed as prices have gone nowhere over the last three months. Volatility remains average as prices topped out last month slightly above the 1,350 level as I still think longer-term gold prices look attractive. However, all the interest remains in the U.S. equity market which is hovering right near all-time highs once again. For the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the March 25th high of 1,330 in my opinion so be patient and let's see what next week's trade brings as I do believe bullish trends across the board will start to develop soon.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup

From a post on gold and silver on Tuesday…

Very simply, if it’s an H&S it’s a minor one with a target to the SMA 200 or short-term lateral support. Gold has curled back up to test the underside of its SMA 50. A takeout of 1310 and then the March high could put yeller back in business. Otherwise, don’t personalize it. A test of the SMA 200 would be normal.

The H&S was not my thing. I tend not to get overly excited about short-term patterns and surely do not announce them far and wide to stir people up. It was a product of the gold community, some members of which have been flipping in head-spinning fashion between bullish and bearish views. I note it again because I don’t want that stink on me. The upside and downside parameters above were my stuff.

Per the NFTRH Trade Log, I shorted a chunk of GLD yesterday (while remaining long gold stocks and even more so, cyclical assets on balance) as gold poked the SMA 50 per the Futures chart below. Gold’s pullback today was not engineered by the Fed or da Boyz or da PPT, PtB, Trump, Mnuchin or some nefarious super algo. It’s normal. Okay, conspiracy mongers? N.O.R.M.A.L.

Click the chart for a clearer view of gold’s situation at the SMA 50. If it does not clear the March high the SMA 200 (at least) continues to yawn with its gaping maw. 1240 is also doable.

gold

Silver looks particularly lame, but ironically this is the metal I am expecting to bottom first with the question being the two noted (green) support areas. Don’t rule out 14.50. Continue reading "Gold And Silver Still On The Road To A Low Risk Setup"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Silver Futures

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 15.40 an ounce while currently trading at 15.16 down about $0.24 for the trading week bouncing off of major support which was also right near a three month low. I don't have any precious metal recommendations as silver continues to remain in a choppy chart pattern as we are now trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned to the downside. However, I do believe the downside is limited. The U.S. dollar is right near a two year high this week as that is what has put pressure on silver and the entire precious metal complex as there are very few strong trends out of the commodity sectors at this time. If you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under today's low as an exit strategy of 14.95 because if that level is broken, you do not want to have any type of bullish position in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

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Yield Curves, 2-Year Yield, SPX (and a crack up boom?)

While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues…

30yr yield minus 5yr yield

The more commonly watched 10-2 year does this, implying ongoing Goldilocks…

yield curve

While the nominal 2-year yield does this, implying “ruh roh!”Continue reading "Yield Curves, 2-Year Yield, SPX (and a crack up boom?)"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,302 while currently trading at 1,310 up about $8 for the trading week. Prices reacted positively off of the Federal Reserve statement that they will not raise interest rates for the rest of 2019 which is a fundamental bullish factor towards gold and the precious metals as a whole. Gold prices held major support a couple of weeks back at the 1,280 level as I still believe we will break the February 20th high of 1,349 in the coming weeks ahead. The Federal Reserve stated that there would be no more interest rates hikes in the near future as that is bullish commodities and stock prices in general as I see no reason to be short gold at these relatively inexpensive prices. Gold futures are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is slightly higher as I will be looking at a bullish position if prices hit a four week high in next weeks trade as the chart structure is improving daily due to the low volatility. The U.S. dollar has sold off of recent highs as lower interest rates in the United States means a weak dollar which is also bullish gold.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"