Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Hog Futures

Hog futures in the February contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 67.55 while currently trading at 69.60. I am now recommending a bullish position while placing the stop-loss below the contract low and low yearly standing at the August 5th low of 63.67 as the risk is around $2,500 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The United States and China agreed on a phase one trade agreement, which certainly should pick up demand for pork. China has lost 250 million hogs due to the swine flu as that is why you see hog prices trade higher over the last 2 consecutive sessions and historically speaking, prices look very cheap.

Hog prices are trading above their 20-day but still under their 100-day moving average, which stands around the 72.40 level as prices have been depressed for quite some time because we've had no agreement with China. Still, that situation has changed as I think the risk/reward is in your favor to take a bullish position. I think the 65 level will hold so play this to the upside while making sure that you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the proper risk management strategy.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Live Cattle Futures

Live cattle futures in the February contract is sharply higher this Friday afternoon in Chicago up 250 points at 127.60, hitting a fresh contract high. Prices are reacting strongly because of the phase 1 trade agreement with China as most agricultural markets are higher across the board as that is an extremely bullish fundamental factor for higher prices ahead.
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, December 2019

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for December, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed last June 2018 at 2.800 billion barrels. It estimated stocks were unchanged in November at 2.950 billion, 103 million barrels higher than a year ago.

For the balance of 2019, OECD inventories are projected to drop to 2.932 billion, 72 million higher than end-2018. For 2020, EIA projects that stocks will build by 39 million barrels to end the year at 2.979 billion.

Oil

The EIA estimated that OPEC production dipped by 80,000 b/d in November to 29.52 million. For 2020, it estimates that OPEC production will average about 29.3 million, about 500,000 b/d lower than in 2019. Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, December 2019"

2 Out Of 3 Americans Are Involved In this Industry

Roughly 2.5 billion people around the world play video games, which includes two out of every three Americans per research from the newest Exchange Traded Fund manager Roundhill Investments. Deloitte's research showed $4.5 billion was invested in the eSports industry in 2018 alone, which represented an 818% increase from 2017. Currently, 454 million people watch eSports events, and estimates have that number growing to 645 million by 2022. The global gaming market is expected to hit $152 billion by the end of 2019, a 10% year-over-year growth rate.

The rise of multiplayer battle royale games such as ‘Fortnite,’ increased technology, which includes higher internet speeds, virtual reality headsets, increased processing power. It’s also ushered in the ability to allow gamers to use multiple devices to access games that have been key drivers in changing the industry. In the past, the industry relied on single gaming consoles sales or single games to bring in all the revenue. Today we have in-game purchases; massive esports arena’s selling out for tournaments, advertising revenue from watching streaming video of other players competing in games.

While the video gaming industry has been around for decades, the investment opportunities have never been as good as they are today, especially because from most accounts, it would appear the next catalyst for growth is still in its infancy stages today.

Currently, five Exchange Traded Funds focus on the gaming industry and allow you the opportunity to buy into this industry that could see massive growth over the next decade. Let’s take a look at your options. Continue reading "2 Out Of 3 Americans Are Involved In this Industry"

Good News Is… Good News

If you're a bond investor, maybe you should be praying for impeachment after last Friday's November jobs report.

Granted, based on other indicators, including GDP, leading indicators, and others, the economy is not as strong as it was at the beginning of this year. But it’s still in pretty good shape, as witnessed by the 266,000 jobs that were added to the economy last month.

The immediate reaction in the bond market was a sharp drop in prices and a concomitant rise in bond yields. In other words, good economic news is bad for bonds. By the same token, a strong economy pretty much squashes the idea of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates anytime soon, which is also negative for bond prices. If anything, if this keeps up, the Fed’s next move may be to raise interest rates again, not lower them, which is the prevailing view in the financial markets at the moment.

So that would indicate that the bond investors’ best hope is for the Democrats to be successful in impeaching Trump and as quickly as possible and push the economy in the other direction.

Of course, as some of us might remember from our junior high civics or American government class (do they still teach that in schools?), impeachment is not the same thing as removal from office. President Clinton and President Andrew Johnson were both impeached, but neither was removed from office, having prevailed in the subsequent trial in the Senate. (That’s the part most giddy news stories about the current impeachment drama leave out). But then again, the entire Democrat strategy is really about generating as many headlines as possible with the words “Trump” and “impeachment” close together, as if that’s good enough.

So impeachment isn’t such a great political or electoral strategy. Neither is it a good bond investment strategy.

Let's get back to the jobs reports, which was described variously as a “blowout” or “blockbuster” or words close to that. Continue reading "Good News Is… Good News"

Gold & Silver: Last Drop Ahead Of Santa Claus Rally?

Both metals went amazingly well with the plan that I shared with you a month ago. I have shown you a possible structure of more complex correction and set the time targets for both metals. Below you can see where you thought the completion of the corrective move would finish.

gold silver poll

The votes were split almost even with a little margin in favor of the gold bugs as they preferred January 2020 as the ending point for the current extended correction. Silver fans chose Christmas day as their metal's chart showed it as a result of calculations.

Later on, there was an update where I set the price targets for both gold, and silver for the upcoming drop as the structure got more clarity.

As time goes by and the chart moves to the right, adding more and more bars, we can see the picture even clearer now to adjust both time and price targets for top metals below. Continue reading "Gold & Silver: Last Drop Ahead Of Santa Claus Rally?"