Bonds And Stimulus Are Driving Big Sector Trends

Falling Bonds and rising yields are creating a condition in the global markets where capital is shifting away from Technology, Communication Services and Discretionary stocks have suddenly fallen out of favor, and Financials, Energy, Real Estate, and Metals/Miners are gaining strength. The rise in yields presents an opportunity for Banks and Lenders to profit from increased yield rates. In addition, historically low-interest rates have pushed the Real Estate sector, including commodities towards new highs.

We also note Miners and Metals have shown strong support recently as the US Dollar and Bonds continue to collapse. The way the markets are shifting right now is suggesting that we may be close to a technology peak, similar to the DOT COM peak, where capital rushes away from recently high-flying technology firms into other sectors (such as Banks, Financials, Real Estate, and Energy).

The deep dive in Bonds and the US Dollar aligns with the research we conducted near the end of 2020, which suggested a market peak may set up in late February. We also suggested the markets may continue to trade in a sideways (rounded top) type of structure until late March or early April 2021. Our tools and research help us to make these predictions nearly 4 to 5+ months before the markets attempt to make these moves.

If our research is correct, we may have started a “capital shift” process in mid-February where declining Bonds, rising yields, and the declining US Dollar push traders to re-evaluate continued profit potential in the hottest sectors over the past 6 to 12+ months. This would mean that Technology, Healthcare, Comm Services, and Discretionary sectors may suddenly find themselves on the “not so hot” list soon. Continue reading "Bonds And Stimulus Are Driving Big Sector Trends"

Your ETFs Are At Risk If US Delist Chinese Stocks

At the beginning of January, the drama of delisting certain Chinese stocks controlled the headlines for a few days. Then, as we all know, other more newsworthy stories occurred, and we all forgot about the delisting of Chinese stocks due to 'national security' concerns.

Several different stocks were being thrown around as possibly being delisted in the future, which could affect you even if you don't own any individual Chinese stocks or Chinese-focused ETFs.

The delisting occurred as a way to 'protect' the national security of the United States against China. So, the main focus of the delisted stocks were those of military importance to the Chinese government. Most of the stocks on this list the average investors would have never heard of before. But, there were three telecommunications companies thrown on the list that some investors may have heard of. However, still very unlikely you would be holding them individually or through a non-Chinese-focused ETF.

However, two Chinese stocks, in particular, are a part of a vast number of popular ETFs in the US. The companies are JD.com (JD) and Alibaba Group Holding (BABA). For whatever reason, these two stocks were and still to an extent being considered as possible additions to the delisting list. Continue reading "Your ETFs Are At Risk If US Delist Chinese Stocks"

Watch Gold, Leave Silver Alone

It is time to update the charts as gold triggered the former valley of $1765 last Friday.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) opens this post.

Dollar Index

Most of you agreed last month with the plan that the dollar index will extend its consolidation to the upside, making a zigzag first to the downside and then to the upside with the target area between 91.40 and 91.80 (blue box). The former was your favorite goal, and it was hit with a margin as the price reached 91.60 at the top of this month. Continue reading "Watch Gold, Leave Silver Alone"

Disney - 146 Million Streaming Juggernaut

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) expects its Disney+ streaming platform will have up to 260 million subscribers by 2040. The company continues to exceed all expectations in the streaming space accelerated by the stay-at-home COVID-19 environment. The company has been posting phenomenal streaming numbers that have thus far negated the COVID-19 impact on its other business segments, specifically its theme parks. Disney has had to shutter all its worldwide Parks and Resorts, and ESPN has been hit with the cancellation of virtually all sports worldwide. There have been ebbs and flows with reopening efforts across the globe with mixed results followed by rolling lockdown measures. Despite the COVID-19 headwinds, Disney’s streaming initiatives have been major growth catalysts for the company. Disney+’ growth in its subscriber base has shifted the conversation from COVID-19 impact on its theme parks to a durable and sustainable recurring revenue model. This streaming bright spot, in conjunction with the optimism of its Park and Resorts coming back online, has been a perfect combination as of late, especially with the vaccine rollout picking up steam.

Disney+ has racked up 94.9 million paid subscribers, Hulu has 39.4 million paid subscribers, and ESPN+ has 12.1 million paid subscribers. Collectively, Disney now has over 146 million paid streaming subscribers across its platforms (Figure 1). Disney+ has been wildly successful via unleashing all of its Marvel, Star Wars, Disney, and Pixar libraries in what has become a formidable competitor in the ever-expanding streaming wars domestically and internationally. Hence the tug-of-war on Wall Street between COVID-19 impacts versus the success of its streaming initiatives, with the latter winning out. Thus far, its streaming success has changed the narrative as its stock has broken through all-time highs and nearly breaking through $200 per share. Disney is a compelling buy for long-term investors as its legacy business segments get back on track in the latter part of 2021 in conjunction with these successful streaming initiatives.

Disney
Figure 1 – Streaming initiatives across its platforms with over 146 million paid subscribers in total

Post Pandemic

Disney’s business segments will inevitably recover as the pandemic Continue reading "Disney - 146 Million Streaming Juggernaut"

World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, February 2021

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for February, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely peaked at 3.210 billion in July 2020. In January 2021, it estimated stocks dropped by 15 million barrels to end at 3.030 billion, 127 million barrels higher than a year ago.

The EIA estimated global oil production at 93.95 million barrels per day (mmbd) for January, compared to global oil consumption of 93.89 mmbd. That implies an oversupply of 60,000 b/d, or 1.9 million barrels for the month. That implies non-OECD stocks dropped by 17 million barrels.

For 2021, OECD inventories are now projected to draw by net 86 million barrels to 2.959 billion. For 2022 it forecasts that stocks will draw by 24 million barrels to end the year at 2.935 billion.

Oil

The EIA forecast was made incorporates the OPEC+ decision to cut production and exports. According to OPEC’s press release January 5, 2021: Continue reading "World Oil Supply And Price Outlook, February 2021"