Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,523 while currently trading at 1,537 up nearly $28 for the week ending on a positive note all because it certainly looks like a trade war with China is going to escalate.

I am currently not involved in gold, but I do think higher prices are ahead and if you are long a futures contract continue to place the stop loss under the 2 week low standing at 1,488 as an exit strategy as I still think prices break the 1,600 level possibly in next week's trade. I have a bullish silver trade which continues to move higher weekly as I see no reason to be short the precious metals as the U.S. stock market is down another 450 points as the commodity markets remain weak across the board especially the agricultural sector.

Volatility in gold is exceptionally high, and that will continue for the rest of 2019 as prices are still trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average, however for the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the April 13th contract high of 1,546, and I think that situation is going to occur so stay long if you are involved as I see no reason to take profits.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Economist Lays Out The Next Step For The Fed

Mr. Steven Ricchiuto, he of a Masters in Economics from Columbia, has laid out the proper plan for the Federal Reserve in this oh so noisy environment in which an unassuming and fairly quiet man is trying to tune out a personal bully on Twitter, tune out the stock market’s daily whipsaw and do what he perceives to be the right thing.

Today, the academic named above throws in with Trump and politely harangues Chairman Powell thusly in an open letter. You can read it by hitting the graphic…

Stagflation this, Volcker that, deflation the other thing… blah blah blah. But then he gets to the interesting parts, the money parts. Of the post-Volcker era he states…

To rein in excess money supply growth, the Fed trimmed bank reserves — high-powered money — which resulted in dramatically higher short-term rates. This shift in policy served to dampen inflationary expectations, and thus inflation, while increasing central bank credibility. The dollar strengthened and elected officials became strong supporters of an independent Fed as a result.

Indeed, in microcosm, these periodic drives to the lower rungs of the Continuum are all about Fed credibility. Credibility rebuilt after events like last year’s break of the monthly EMA 100 limiter (red dashed line) on the 30 year Treasury yield.

In H2 2018 while the supposed bond experts were uniformly aligned in a BOND BEAR MARKET!!! posture and market participants were wondering why Jerome Powell was being so stern amid the stock market wipe out NFTRH noted that the Fed was not going to self-immolate in a blaze of inflationary expectations (featuring out of control long-term yields). Credibility would need to be rebuilt and here indeed it has been, and then some. Continue reading "Economist Lays Out The Next Step For The Fed"

Bitcoin Is Running Out Of Time

Last month I updated the Bitcoin chart after this cryptocurrency made a buzz at the end of the June pushing through $13,000. In the same post, I shared with you the 4-hour chart where the horizontal consolidation had been spotted. The Bitcoin price was at the $11,500 level then, and I expected it to drop lower to complete the correction.

Let’s see below what you were waiting for Bitcoin then.

Bitcoin Poll

The majority of you expected Bitcoin to drop to the $7,800. Bitcoin haters were second to see head much lower. And the fans were in the third place with an immediate reversal option (stops here).

So far the least liked option of CD=AB at the $8,980 was the most accurate prediction as the Bitcoin indeed dropped lower but only to the $9,071. I think that time emotions were above the calm mind as the 5-digit price tag of the crypto spurred both euphoria and hatred as opinions were divided. Continue reading "Bitcoin Is Running Out Of Time"

Silver Smashed The Target Early; Now I See 3 Options

On the 24th of July, silver had reached the target of $16.6, which I had set in June when the price was at $14.55. It finished that move way ahead of time as the time target; Now on the 2nd of September. It took the poor man’s gold only 41 bars to arrive at the destination instead of amazingly equal periods of 69 bars in AB and BC segments.

Quite often silver makes a surprise for the market as it was submissive before and now it lives in the clouds like an eagle outshining the gold.

Let’s see how you had predicted the future of silver in the poll below.

Silver

No questions, it was one of the clearest ballots on the blog. The majority with absolute dominance had chosen the success of the bullish move and were right, again! Last time one of the readers expressed his fears about those facts that the majority in the ballots predicts very well so far. Here is more fantastic proof! Maybe this is what we call the power of the Hive Mind (Collective Intelligence).

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