Always One Tweet Away

Hello traders everywhere. Do you find yourself following President Trump closely on Twitter? I sure do and you probably should too. Reason being, recently it seems that we are one tweet away from disaster or prosperity. Take today, for instance, the market overall was barley in the red after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said "The U.S. economy is in a "favorable place" and the Federal Reserve will "act as appropriate" to keep the current economic expansion on track. He then continued to say "the U.S. economy has continued to perform well overall, business investment and manufacturing have weakened, but solid job growth and rising wages have been driving robust consumption and supporting moderate overall growth.”

And Then we get this tweet from President Trump: "As usual, the Fed did NOTHING! It is incredible that they can “speak” without knowing or asking what I am doing, which will be announced shortly. We have a very strong dollar and a very weak Fed. I will work “brilliantly” with both, and the U.S. will do great..."

"....My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi"?

After that exchange, he shifted his sights to China they unveiled new tariffs. China stated that they will implement new tariffs on another $75 billion worth of U.S. goods, including autos. The tariffs will range between 5% and 10% and will be implemented in two batches on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15.

He started tweeting: "Our Country has lost, stupidly, Trillions of Dollars with China over many years. They have stolen our Intellectual Property at a rate of Hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year, & they want to continue. I won’t let that happen! We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far...." Continue reading "Always One Tweet Away"

Stocks Still On Pace For Weekly Losses

Hello traders everywhere. Despite the fact that all three major indexes are up over +1% in Friday trading they will still all lose close to or more than -1% on the week, unable to shake the heavy losses suffered mid-week. The NASDAQ is down -.8%, meanwhile the S&P 500 will lose -1% and the DOW will post we weekly loss of -1.6%.

Falling bond yields are to blame for the volatile markets this week with The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield dropping to a record low Thursday, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year notes dipped to a three-year low as investors sought out safe-haven assets.

Amid all of the volatility, the U.S. Dollar shook off a weekly loss of -1% last week to post a weekly gain of +1.1% gaining strength against global currencies. However, it's still stuck in a tight trading range between $96-$98.

Gold has been the big benefactor of the recent volatility gaining +1% on the week marking three straight weeks of gains against the major indexes posting three straight weeks of losses. That paints a pretty clear picture of a flight to safety by investors. Check out INO Contributor Aibek Burabayev's recent article on gold and where it's headed.

Crude oil is set to post a weekly gain of +.8% after posting four straight weeks of losses, but overall the long-term trend is down for oil and we should expect to see the price oil head lower as we close out the year.

After two weeks of gains, Bitcoin has given back some of this gains losing -7.5% on the week. It's currently stuck in a tight trading range between $9k and $12K, essentially in a sidelines mode.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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Stocks Tumble On Recession Warning

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday giving back all of Tuesday's gains after the U.S. bond market flashed a troubling signal about the U.S. economy. This move ignited fears that a recession may be on the horizon for the U.S. economy.

The DOW was down more than 600 points and is down over -2.3%, meanwhile the S&P 500 slumped -2.3% and the Nasdaq sank -2.5% on the day.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note Wednesday broke below the 2-year rate, an odd bond market phenomenon that has been a reliable indicator for economic recessions. Investors, worried about the state of the economy, rushed to long-term safe-haven assets, pushing the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond to a new record low on Wednesday.

There have been five inversions of the 2-year and 10-year yields since 1978, and all were precursors to a recession, but there is a significant lag, according to data from Credit Suisse. A recession occurred, on average, 22 months after the inversion, Credit Suisse shows. And the S&P 500 enjoyed average returns of 15% 18 months after an inversion before it eventually turns.

The last time this key part of the yield curve inverted was in December 2005, two years before the recession hit.

Key Levels To Watch This Week:

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Stocks Fall On Amplified Trade Fears

Hello traders everywhere. Stocks fell Friday after President Trump suggested that a meeting with China on trade might be canceled, capping a tumultuous week driven by the trade war and emerging currency fight between the U.S. and China.

"We're not ready to make a deal, but we'll see what happens," President Trump told reporters Friday morning. "We will see whether or not China keeps our meeting in September."

The DOW slid -0.9% in midday trading on Friday losing over 200 pts. The S&P 500 dropped -1.1%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ was down -1.4%. The indexes had been down to open the day and fell further as the president commented on trade progress.

For a weekly view the S&P 500 is down roughly -.9 for the week unable to erase the losses of the week, in fact, the DOW will lose -1.2% and the NASDAQ will lose -1% making for a tough week.

Gold and Bitcoin had great weeks posting weekly gains of +4% and +8% while crude oils struggle continued losing -1.4% on the week.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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Trade Tensions Sink Stocks

Hello traders everywhere. China's answer to the latest round of tariffs that President Trump announced last week was to let the Yuan, China's currency, slide below the key 7-per-dollar level for the first time in more than a decade fanning fears that it could further aggravate an ongoing trade war.

The Dow plunged more than 600 points a few different times today losing over -2%, while the S&P 500 sank over -2% and the Nasdaq dropped -3%. The three indexes are on pace to post their biggest-one day loss since May 13. The Nasdaq is on track to fall for a sixth straight session, which would be its longest losing streak since late 2016. The S&P 500 headed for a six-day losing streak as well. The major indexes have also fallen more than 5% from their record highs set last month.

Bitcoin has mounted a comeback that started last week and culminated with a new green weekly Trade Triangle being issued at $11,370.78 signaling a move back to a long position. Bitcoin is currently up +5% backing up its +14% move last week. Is Bitcoin the new haven for China?

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

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