After Thanksgiving, I was perusing the crypto space and kept seeing 2022 price targets for Ethereum (ETH) that were frankly all over the place.
I saw everything from $5K, $6K, $7K, even $14K. And with a recent price of about $4,700, I figured that these nosebleed predictions were way too bullish. And that’s coming from someone who has sung Ethereum’s praises time and time again.
I couldn’t have been more wrong. After I did a little analysis, I came up with a 2022 price target for ETH that put even these huge predictions to shame.
The Outlook For Ethereum (ETH) Is Huge
First off, I don’t like price predictions. They don’t really mean much. And in my experience, they aren’t that reliable.
But they’re fun to play around with. So, as we set out on my quest to predict the price of ETH in 2022, take my analysis with a little tongue in cheek.
Occasionally, businesses undergo corporate restructuring for various reasons. Often this involves spinning off a separate, independent entity to potentially unlock value for shareholders over the long term. Some notable spin-offs include Dow from DowDuPont, Alcon from Novartis, Otis Elevators from United Technologies, and VMWare from Dell. When company spin-offs occur during an options expiration cycle, this can complicate the normal lifecycle of a pending options contract. When this happens, these options are denoted as "adjusted" with the corresponding ADJ within the options chain. One of the most recent notable spin-offs was Kyndryl (KD) from International Business Machines (IBM), as these two broke apart and traded as separate entities during an actively pending option contact. The share split ratio changes the deliverable of the option contract and thus requires normalizing the two entities relative to the original contract value when adjusting for the new strike price. This normalizing is necessary as shares may ostensibly be in the money; however, as a function of the share split ratio, the option contract is out-of-the-money and not assignable.
Figure 1 – IBM spin-off of Kyndryl and its impact on pending options as seen via a Trade notification service - Trade Notification Service
Breaking Down An Adjusted Option
IBM completed a business spin-off of (KD) that publicly traded as a separate company. The share spin-off was a 1:5 share split translating into every 100 shares of IBM; the shareholder also receives 20 shares of KD. As such, any options that were active during the spin-off experienced a deliverable change that was equivalent to 100 shares of IBM plus 20 shares of KD. Continue reading "Company Spin-Offs And Adjusted (ADJ) Options"→
This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 12/5/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!
The S&P 500 (SPY)
All the waiting and watching has paid off nicely as the S&P has topped and started to trend lower in earnest. This "break" will freak some folks out, but I still believe my forecast will prove true that this selling will catch a bid and reverse the market for a short period of time. Once that momentum burns off, a lower high will form, completing a "head and shoulders" pattern, and THEN WE CRASH. Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"→
The yield curve is flattening. I don’t cheer-lead a given view, but if I were to do that I’d be cheering for a yield curve flattener to put a correction to inflationist dogmatists quoting von Mises to the herds and otherwise sloganeering about inflation and a “commodity super cycle” (that term is pure promo).
After a disappointing November jobs report, the stock market dropped on Friday as the market wrapped up a roller-coaster week driven by COVID Omicron variant concerns. The most significant sector hit was the tech sector, with the NASDAQ losing -1.92% to finish the day at 15,085.47. The DOW fell 59.71 points or -0.17% to close at 34,580.08, and the S&P 500 dropped -0.84% to end at 4,538.43.
Despite a 600 point rebound on Thursday, the DOW dropped -0.91% for the week marking four straight weeks of losses. The S&P 500 fell -1.22% for its second straight week of losses, and the NASDAQ capped off the week, losing -2.62%, marking its second straight week of losses. Continue reading "Tech Sell-Off Drags Market Lower"→