Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 8/1/2021 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

There will be no forecast this week as I am moving my family across the country and had to disassemble my computer systems, making it impossible to measure and analyze all the data necessary for accurate forecasting.

This enforced pause, as well as the stop loss triggered in SPGI after it cycled down nicely out of the gate, acts as a nice reset, and I thought you would find it interesting if I share what’s going through my mind tactically at the moment.

All traders, IF they are to be (and remain) successful, are expected, heuristic learners.

The word “Heuristic” is defined as.

“Enabling someone to discover or learn something for themselves.

"A “hands-on” or interactive heuristic approach to learning"

And that’s exactly what’s been happening to me over the past few weeks.

You see, the methodology that I use to forecast the markets works like a flashlight you shine out into the infinite darkness of uncertainty.

Let me explain... Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

HUI Technical Status And Gold Stock Fundamentals

A review of the situation in gold stocks. It is, in essence, a year ago that Warren Buffett ill-timed his entry into the gold stock sector, unwittingly calling a top to the post-crash rally and signaling the start of the 2020 inflation trades, which did not include gold stocks (for logical reasons, as belabored in NFTRH and at NFTRH.com over the years). Increasing the view that ole’ Warren was playing contrary indicator last summer were the usual gold perma-bull suspects coming out immediately after with bullhorns a blaring as we noted in real-time on August 17, 2020: Buffett Buys a Gold Stock!

In the scope of the entire correction, as the bids rotated out of the precious metals and to a lesser degree growth/tech stocks into value stocks and cyclicals (including commodities) the inflation-instigated reflation trades hit stride, and gold stocks were sent on a long decline. Again, if you tune out the perma-touts and think rationally, the miners were only doing what they should do (see below).

There were two false breakdowns, the second of which sparked a strong rally. We also caught Mr. Buffett for a contrary signal to that rally on February 17, 2021: Buffett Pukes a Gold Stock!

The rally terminated at a key resistance level (as plotted well ahead of time as a caution zone in NFTRH) and here we are with HUI below its down-turning SMA 50 and SMA 200 (which needed to hold as support in order to maintain a constructive view), back in the downtrend channel (actually the Handle to a still bullish big picture, which is beyond the scope of this post) and the near-term bounce that I had been expecting has finally arrived after the rude interruption of an unexpected lower low.

That low came off of positive RSI and MACD divergences and here we are, on the bounce with the channel’s upper line, the down-sloping moving averages, and a clear lateral resistance area all taunting… “‘C’mon Huey, we dare you!” Continue reading "HUI Technical Status And Gold Stock Fundamentals"

Earnings Calendar for August 2021

Over 2,300 publically traded companies are scheduled to release earnings data in August 2021.

Companies big and small hope to beat analysts' estimates with better than expected bottom-line numbers.

The story should be similar to every other earnings season - some companies will smash estimates while others will disappoint the market. And, some announcements will spawn incredible earnings plays for active traders.

Most Anticipated Earnings For The Month

Below are some of the most anticipated scheduled earnings announcements for August Continue reading "Earnings Calendar for August 2021"