Copper On Big Time Frame Charts: $0.6 or $6?

There is an age-old question asking: How do you determine if a trader is biased? Show him a chart and ask where he thinks the market would go and then show him the same, but reversed chart and if the answer is the same, then this trader is indeed biased. We call such a trader a Perma-Bull or a Perma-Bear. The market sentiment is often split even as there are a lot of biased traders and market is then trapped within a range as there is no dominant opinion among the participants.

Every day I see how the trading community spreads opposite signals in any instrument creating an overwhelming sea of information where it’s hard for novice traders to focus and make a trading decision. Different levels of experience and fantasy generate the diversity of chart patterns and models. People change time frames and squeeze or expand charts; all of this affects the perception and therefore, the final decision.

Let’s perform an educational experiment with two patterns that I found on different time frames for the same instrument, copper. I will add two separate charts with those patterns followed by explanations. I am eager to see what you think about the outlook for this instrument after reading and voting on the pole at the end of the article. Continue reading "Copper On Big Time Frame Charts: $0.6 or $6?"

Stocks Waver Ahead Of Earnings

Hello traders everywhere. The stock market opened in positive territory Monday morning riding the coattails of a rising Chinese market only to slip into negative territory shortly after the open once corporate earnings started rolling in.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 4% to score its best day since March 2, 2016. The quick move higher comes after Chinese authorities pledged to support China's economy and offset the negative impact of U.S. tariffs. They made that pledge after reporting weaker-than-expected economic growth for the second quarter. Despite the big daily move, Chinese stocks are still down sharply for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen about 20% in 2018 and is down over 21.4% in the last twelve months.

Earnings

Some disappointing earnings reports have not helped the market's mood ahead of what is expected to be the heaviest earnings week this season. Investors are nervous about the outlook for future growth due to concerns over trade and tariff's, rising costs and other factors. Continue reading "Stocks Waver Ahead Of Earnings"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,222 while currently trading at 1,231 an ounce hitting a ten-week high breaking out of an eight-week consolidation last week. I'm looking at a bullish position if prices trade at the 1,220 level while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low standing at 1,186 as the risk would be $,3400 for a large contract or $1,100 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. The monetary risk at this time is too much in my opinion and I'm waiting for a pullback as volatility is also starting to increase. I'm currently recommending a bullish silver position which continually grinds higher in a very methodical manner. Gold prices are trading above their 20-day and right at their 100-day moving average as the U.S. dollar has been flip-flopping over the last couple months with no trend having minimal impact as I do believe prices have bottomed out. The chart structure is starting to improve on a daily basis. However, problems with Saudi Arabia could bring money flows back into the sector so look to play this to the upside on any price retracement while risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Disney: Fox Acquisition and Strong ESPN Numbers

Stock Trends Upward to New Highs

Disney (DIS) has finally broken out to new highs as the Fox (FOX) acquisition, and its streaming initiatives come into the fold. Now that the Fox acquisition is complete and its assets are being absorbed by Disney this once opaque situation now appears clear and definitive. Furthermore, Disney is divesting its 39% Sky ownership stake that it acquired via the Fox acquisition to Comcast (CMCSA). This divestiture enables Disney to reduce its debt that was required to purchase the Fox media assets and will allow more investment into its streaming services such as Hulu, ESPN Plus and its Disney branded streaming service that will directly compete with Netflix (NFLX) in 2019. The Fox acquisition brings a majority stake in Hulu (60% ownership) while its ESPN Plus launched earlier this year and has over 1 million subscribers in its early phases of being rolled out. Disney continues to dominate at the box office while posting great growth at its theme parks translating into robust and durable revenue streams. The company is evolving to meet the new age of media consumption demands of the consumer via streaming and on-demand content. To this end, shareholders are beginning to resonate with Disney’s vision for future growth and the stock has appreciated to a 52-week high as of late-breaking above the $118 level. Disney currently trades at a P/E of 14.5 while the average stock in the S&P 500 trades at ~25, representing a ~40% discount to the average stock in the index. Disney offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity given its backdrop.

ESPN Plus – Subscriber Numbers Released

ESPN Plus was launched earlier this year in April to a mixed skeptical reception among shareholders and consumers upon its debut. Due to precipitous declines in ESPN viewership via traditional cable, Disney was cornered to remediate its ESPN business and evolve to the cord cutting consumer. Recently, Disney announced a key milestone for its streaming platform, reaching over 1 million paid subscribers. ESPN is Disney’s first inroads into the streaming arena offering a package of sports which include Major League Baseball (MLB), National Hockey League (NHL), college football, soccer, boxing and UFC for $4.99 per month. Disney has kept its ESPN Plus subscriber numbers a secret and would only state that its paid subscriptions were "strong" and that growth was surpassing expectations. Continue reading "Disney: Fox Acquisition and Strong ESPN Numbers"

Indexes Fail To Break Away From 200-Day MA

Hello traders everywhere. It's hard to believe but as I write two of the three indexes are in positive territory for the week. Mid-week it looked like the stock market may be in rebound mode, only to fall close to the levels that we saw last week at weeks end and ultimately unable to break away from the 200-day moving average. The indexes look to be set up to retest the low levels from last week, and that could form a double bottom, much like the one we saw in April of this year.

The 200-day MA has proven to be a strong level of support this year rejecting several attempts by the market to break it, only to see the market bounce higher after each attempt. Will that trend continue?

weekly trade triangle

As crazy as it might seem even with this week's volatility both the S&P 500 and DOW are looking to post weekly gains of +.2% and +.4% respectively. However, the NASDAQ isn't playing along, and it is posting its third weekly loss in a row standing at -.4%. Continue reading "Indexes Fail To Break Away From 200-Day MA"