My team prepares Custom Valuations Index charts to understand how capital is being deployed in the global markets alongside US Dollar and Treasury Yields. The purpose of the Custom Index charts in this article is to provide better insight into and understanding of underlying capital movements in various market conditions. Recently, we discovered the Custom Index chart shares a keen alignment with Gold (and likely the general precious metals sector). Let’s explore our recent analysis to help readers understand what to expect next in precious metals.
Weekly Custom Valuations Index Chart
The first thing that caught my attention was the very clear decline in the weekly Custom Valuations Index recently, as can be seen in the chart below. The second peak on the Custom Valuations Index chart occurred on the week of August 3, 2020. Gold also peaked at this very same time. This alignment started an exploratory analysis of the Custom Valuations Index and the potential alignment with the precious metals sector.
The peak in the Custom Valuations Index on March 20, 2020 (near the height of the COVID-19 market collapse) presented a very clear upside target which was confirmed with a second peak level in August 2020. The fact that the Custom Valuations Index reached that peak level again and that peak level also aligned with the peak price in Gold may just be a coincidence. As we continue to explore this unique alignment, we’ll explore more unique characteristics to see if there is a link that is more than mere chance. Continue reading "Custom Valuations Index Suggests Precious Metals Will Decline"→
The bull run that started in December had to take a breather after it extended into 2021 and this week was the week. Six of the seven markets that we track weekly will finish the week down, and the one market that is up may shock you.
We'll start with the three major indexes. The S&P 500, DOW, and NASDAQ will post their first weekly loss of the year and the first in four weeks, with losses standing at -1%, -.6%, and -1%, respectively.
The week's surprising winner is the US Dollar with a weekly gain of +.6%, marking its second straight week of gains, which was enough to trigger a new green weekly Trade Triangle, moving the US Dollar to a sidelines position. Continue reading "First Losing Week Of 2021"→
2020 turned out to be an incredible year for cannabis stocks.
After falling sharply in 2019, the sector was hit hard again in the spring when COVID-19 ravaged global markets. Cannabis stocks and sentiment hit a multi-year low, and many cannabis investors threw in the towel.
It was a dark time for cannabis stocks. Take a look at the steep decline in 2019 and early 2020 in the chart below.
Another week, another yield curve steepener and continuation of the trend that began in August 2019.
Flipping to the bigger picture I added in SPX, Gold, and the CRB commodity index for reference. With the levels of MMT TMM (total market manipulation) injected in the markets since Ben Bernanke cooked up the diabolical macro manipulation known as Operation Twist, I can’t pretend to quant the past to the present… Continue reading "Yield Curve Relentlessly Steepens"→
There is a quote from my post in November of 2020 - "Silver could spoil this party where the stars aligned for DXY and gold." I've meant that the uncompleted chart structure in the silver graph could signal a more complex correction despite the bullish move as it was just the junction between larger downside moves. These words turned prophetic as a poisoned silver arrow hit precious metals badly last week.
Hold on tight; the roller-coaster ride carries on.
Let us start with the silver chart below, and you will see why I chose it to be the first.
It is the exact same chart with an updated price graph. The green leg (ii) of the joint moved exactly as projected in December. It just traveled a longer distance equal to 1.414 of the green leg (i). That is why I turned the orange trend channel higher. Continue reading "A Poisoned Silver Arrow"→