The Psychology of Trading

What a week!

Crude oil nudges towards $100 a barrel but can't quite put in a triple digit print. Gold trades at new highs and hits $845.60 on Wednesday and Thursday and the major indexes all tank.

Google the darling of the tech world finally blinked and drops $100 from its highs, and Apple and RIM slumped with the NASDAQ melt down.

If that was not enough, Fed Chairman Bernanke opened his mouth and showed how he hasn't a clue as to what is happening.

Now here's one guy who does have a clue.


Did John Chambers of CISCO fame create yesterdays tech meltdown? Nooooooooooooo, so what happened? Well. in a couple of words REALITY finally enter Dreamland.

So what's an investor to do?

The first thing to do is an attitude check from the neck up.

One of the most important tools you posses as a trader is your mind. Attitude can either make or break you as a trader.

To become a successful trader it begins with believing in yourself and having a winning attitude.

Everyone wants to be a winner; at least, they think so. Unfortunately, most are not willing to perform the tasks necessary to become a consistent winner.

Winners generally achieve success by being focused on a goal. Being focused allows winners to remain committed to the tasks at hand. Most winners perform a lot of hard work; including a willingness to deal with sometimes mundane duties. Most of all, winners perform with an "I am responsible for both my failures and successes" attitude.

So, where does the would-be trader start to become a success? By focusing on the tasks at hand. Most of all, treat trading as a business. And, as in any business, money management is critical.

Money management, next to trend, is probably the aspect of trading most overlooked by smaller investors. Man, by nature, is an optimistic creature and the amateur trader often acts instinctively. Unfortunately, this instinct or optimism is often the undoing of the smaller trader.

When a person enters a trade, he does so with the hope it will be a winner. When the position goes against him, he keeps thinking (or hoping) "it will come back." He knows he should have a stop in place, but hope keeps telling him to stay just a little longer since everybody knows "you always get stopped out the day the market turns." Eventually, hope turns into frustration, desperation and, finally, panic, prompting the trader to issue a GMO (get me out) order.

If the trader hasn't learned his lesson by this point, he develops the "I have to get it back" syndrome. He generally rushes into another poorly planned trade, throwing good money after bad.

Winners show several different characteristics. They enter the market knowing they can be wrong and, in fact, are wrong as often as they are right. They have learned markets don't run on hope. They understand markets tell them when they are right or wrong. When a trade is losing money and getting worse, the market is telling them to get out.

Bad Trades

A bad trade is like a dead fish: The longer you keep it, the worse it smells.

Good Trades

When a trade is making money, the market is telling them they are right and to let the position ride.

Don't ever do this ...

Winners don't add to, or "average", losing positions. They dump the trade and go looking for a new opportunity. Successful investors may add to the winning trades. When ahead, they press their advantage while remembering that at any time the market can turn on them and prove them wrong.

It trading keep your mind clear and do not get emotional about a trade. Remember you are not married to a stock rather you are in the dating game.

Next week... it's a surprise.

Have a great weekend and a super trading week.


Adam Hewison

Dollar Slips vs. Euro - Hewison on MarketWatch



Dollar slips vs. euro, sterling; steady vs. yen

Greenback touches another record low against euro

By Lisa Twaronite, MarketClub
Last Update: 4:21 PM ET Nov 2, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar was lower against most of its major counterparts and touched a new euro low despite Friday's stronger-than-expected employment data, as continuing concerns about the U.S. financial sector weighted on the greenback.


The euro was trading at $1.4515, up from $1.4432 in late U.S. trading Thursday.

Earlier in the session, the European unit rose to $1.4527, a fresh high since the euro began trading in January 1999.

"As a trader you have to be long euros short dollars with a close like this on the weekend. Many traders are looking for the other shoe to drop in regards to losses" in structured investment vehicles and collateralized debt obligations, said Adam Hewison, president of INO.com, a technical analysis Web site.

"The euro/dollar is very close to our primary target of $1.4550," he added.

The pound sterling was trading at $2.0889, up from $2.0789 Thursday.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down about 0.4% at 76.295. Earlier, the index touched a low of 76.242, which was its lowest level since the index was first compiled in 1973.

But the dollar was higher against its Japanese counterpart, buying 114.89 yen compared with 114.61 late Thursday.

Date from the Labor Department early Friday showed U.S. economy created 166,000 jobs in October, which was the best job growth since May and beat the 93,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Some analysts said that the upbeat data increased rather than alleviated the pressure on the dollar.

"The payroll report is supportive for risk appetite, and therefore dollar-negative. It doesn't materially change [the] outlook for monetary policy, but does suggest growth hasn't faller off a cliff," said Steve Pearson, currency strategist in London for the Bank of Scotland Treasury Services.

A separate set of data from the Commerce Department indicated orders for U.S.-made factor goods rose 0.2% in September on higher gasoline prices. The headline figure also beat economists' consensus expectation of a 0.7% decline.

U.S. stocks shed early gains and sent investors scurrying into the perceived safety of fixed-income assets, but then seesawed between positive and negative territory in afternoon trading before closing higher.

A Wall Street Journal report the Merrill Lynch & Co. had engaged in deals with hedge funds to delay when it has to record losses on risky mortgage-backed securities heightened investors' worries about the financial sector. Merrill later denied the report.

Late int he session, Dow Jones reported that Citigroup, Inc. board members are expected to gather for an emergency meeting this weekend, citing two people familiar with the matter. It wasn't immediately clear what the meeting would address, but the subject of further write-downs could come up, the report said.

Carry trades weigh on yen

Japan's currency remained under pressure due to interest rate differentials.

At 0.5%, Japan's benchmark is the lowest in the developed world. The makes it popular for carry trades, in which global investors borrow lower-yielding currencies to invest in high-yielding assets.

Before the meltdown of the U.S. subprime mortgage market, many analysts had expected Japan's central bank to raise rates in August, with another hike expected to follow within the fiscal year. But following the summer's credit crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve's easing in response to it, Japanese policy makers have opted to stand pat.

The likelihood that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in Japan's fiscal year, which ends in March, fell to about 50% on Friday, the Nikkei reported in its Saturday edition, citing a market gauge based on overnight trading of index swaps.

Meanwhile, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to hold interest rates steady at their policy meetings next week.

"With no cuts on the horizon and a slumping dollar, the euro should move to new heights," wrote analysts at BMO Capital Markets.

"The BoE should remain on hold for a fourth month in November, as the economic data have yet to point to a slowdown," they added.


Lisa Twaronite reports for MarketWatch from San Francisco

*MarketWatch is trademarked and belongs to the Dow Jones, Co.

Yesterday was UGLY

7:30 a.m. EST.

Yesterday we warned readers of this blog that it was going to be an UGLY day. Today we expect to see a much more subdued market. But make no mistake about it, yesterday was a day the pros made money and the public lost money.

The sharp downward spiral yesterday clearly did a lot of technical damage to the internals of the DOW and S & P 500.

So what's today going to be like?

Here's how we see it.

The market did some serious damage to itself when it crashed through the support levels we outlined yesterday.

Here are the support levels again.

DOW: 13,400 SUPPORT
NASDAQ: 2,770 SUPPORT
S&P: 1,489 SUPPORT

In classic technical analysis, support levels once broken become future resistance levels. Rallies back to old support will be met with professional selling.

Bottom line. We now have technical target zones to the downside for the S & P index of 1,430.

If there's no strong rally today (we don't expect this to happen) and the major indexes close little changed for the day; then the day to watch is going to be Friday. If the market closes to the downside on Friday, it's a very bad sign, which would indicate more bad news over the weekend, which in turn will put pressure on the market on Monday.

The old market adage is "They slide faster than they glide".

Translated, markets fall faster than they go up.

Friday is the key.


Adam Hewison

Here's your fourth lesson



Good Wednesday to everyone! Here's your fourth lesson in "The Secrets Of
Professional Floor Traders" mini email course.

Lesson 4 - "Picturing Technical Objectives"
presented by Adam Hewison

================================================================

Have you ever heard the expression that a picture is worth a
thousand words? Well, in the market ... a picture could be worth
a million dollars!

In this lesson, I will share with you the pictures I have
looked at for over 30 years and why they still work in the
today's market.

This may just be my favorite market lesson. It is one that
can make a huge difference in your personal trading and
life. So go check it out.

Because this lesson contains three charts, it has been
posted here.

Picturing Technical Objectives


P.S. Are you a Canadian Trader or someone who's interested in 90% returns??? Watch this video:

Canadian 90% Returns

P.P.S. In lesson 5 titled "Trending with Moving
Averages." I am going to share with you everything I know
about moving averages.