It's almost 28 years ago to the day, that gold traded up to $878 on an intra-day basis.
I know as I was there trading on the floor of the exchange. At the time inflation was running high as was the excitement of the "GOLD BUGS" and all the pundits who were all predicting that gold would hit $1,000, no make that $2,000 an ounce by the end of 1980.
Well guess what, gold never did make it up to $1,000. As a matter of fact, shortly afterwards gold began to lose value, This came as a big shock to the goldies who could not, would not, and did not believe that their precious metal could go down and lose purchasing power.
So what happend almost a generation ago? What caused gold to evapoate and lose value for the next 28 years?
The main reason was that inflation began to come under control and there was little reason to own gold. The bigger reason in my mind, was that the perception of the market had changed.
So where does that leave us?
Here we are 28 years later and gold is trading at new all time highs of close to $900 an ounce. Can you imagine holding onto an investment for 28 years just to get even!!!
I know that generally gold has not been a good investment over the years. It may not have been a good investment, but it has proven to be a great trading market.
The talk now is that gold should be in inflation adjusted dollars trading at $2,100. Well it's not, it's trading just below $900.
Will it go over $900 and hit $1,000 ... who knows?
Is the trend in gold up? Yes, it is.
Is the trend likely to continue ... who knows.
What I do know is that gold is a great trading vehicle, and you can do very well trading in and out of this metal.
It all comes down to this, it doesn't matter which way the market is headed, what matters is you get the direction right.
Good traders listen to what the market is saying and not what the pundits are pushing.
It all has to do with distortion of the reality field and traders perception. I always take the safe bet and listen to what the markets are saying and doing.
If you haven't watched my video on gold or looked at our Q3 results on gold (we are updating Q4 results now and they are positive) then you may be missing out on some great trading opportunities in '08.
Every success trading the yellow metal.