9 thoughts on “The Bear is back!

  1. Couldn't we just have seen the first leg in the last phase down. Would look out for zig zagging on the return move up, if this is the start of the next bear, of for dynamics, if this should turn out to be the last chance to get in cheap.

  2. The Schultheis MONTHLY oscillator stays in in +4 to -4 range no matter if the DJIA is 100 or 10,000. It has recorded a "Minus 4 Panic" a half dozen times since 1853.

    In each case a rally or stabilazation period followed lasting 3 to 17 months followed by new lows beyond the panic lows. The exception was 1987, this being the first case the $$ was free to multiply as it pleases. The 1987 panic low coincided with the 'minus 4" month. No -4 panic has lasted more than 3 months.

    Only once (till now) has this oscillator gone beyond minus 5. (Sept/Nov 1929 panic) It settled at -5.39 followed by a 5 month rally--and then turn out the lights...

    This market is quite similar to the 1929 experience. The Sept/Nov 2008 panic caused this oscillator to record -5.36 in Nov 2008. The post panic rally or stabilization is now underway.

    December records -4.31, while the range for Jan, so far, indicates -2.54. This oscillator squeezed 2 months in plus territory after the 1929 debacle before Katie barred the door...

  3. My analysis using sector rotation, I think we have not gone into the real recession yet. When consumer confidence picked up, the DOW will go even lower. My guess is that the DOW will test the 6200 limit.

  4. The S&P will eithor bottom around 750 and come screaming higher or the bottom will fall far below anyones imagination, I look for it to go higher from 750-800 soon after inauguration not because I am an Obama fan or anything like that it is simply chart technicals. Thank You Kevin

  5. The Bear never left! His name is not Yogi or BooBoo, and he wants more than "PICINIC" BASKETS!

  6. Adam, I was looking at a long term chart of the S&P 500 and noticed that it seems to be making a giant "M" top formation. A break below 800 could move the market to levels not seen since the 80's. Am I reading this wrong?


    I am seeing the same thing. Time to fasten the seat belts.


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