The Reason Why Gold Hasn't Skyrocketed.
With the printing presses in full printing mode, many people are questioning why gold prices haven't gone higher - much higher.
In my new video, I explain some of the subtle market cycles that are at play right now in this market. These short-term cycles have been the dominant force in gold all year and appear to be still in control of price action.
I believe the longer-term upward trend in gold is very much intact; short-term we could see more of a trading range that has a downward bias. I think when you watch this video you will get a much better understanding about the rhythm of this market.
If I am correct, you will see some amazing opportunities that I believe will be presented to traders in Q4. In fact, if everything goes according to plan are we could all be looking at some very nice Christmas/holiday profits.
The video is easy to follow and I think you'll learn a whole lot about cyclic price action in the gold market.
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Enjoy the video and please give us your feedback on this blog.
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub
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It's additional knowledge i learn in your video's.
What a nice site i come across.Nobody yet get the very good impression ever than this site could.
Well done sites and video's.
Thanks a a lot.
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Jabalong,
Yes, I still believe that the long term cyclic move in gold is in place. If you look at one of my earlier videos on Gold you will see that we are looking for a high around the end of the December. December 25 to be exact. Now cycles can get shorter and longer so it could be a week earlier or a week later.
All the best,
Adam
Adam, I'd be interested to know if you think this cyclical pattern is still in play as, if so, we'd be nearing the next high/low later this month.
Richard, technicals/charting are not meant to be predictions, let alone guaranteed ones, but rather an analysis of what has already happened in order to give you a game plan going forward. And as with any game plan, you need to be prepared to adjust it on the fly as events unfold. I too missed the bottom as it came a couple of days earlier, but with Adam's game plan in mind, I was able to quickly recognize what had happened and shift gears so as to get in on the upswing. So the earlier video and analysis did their job in terms of preparing me for what was about to happen so that I'd be ready - rather than bemoaning the bottom coming two days early, we should be commending Adam for a correct read on the situation and nailing it so close. But also bear in mind that Adam would be the first to point out that MarketClub is about nailing the trend rather than timing the tops and bottoms exactly, which is a bit of a fool's game anyway.
i have just watched the video " Gold - game on" (oct 10). in this video you said that gold made it's low in the first week of october. i looked at the XAUUSDO chart shows that gold made it's low on sept 28, 6 days after this ( the reason gold hasn't skyrocketed) video was sent out saying that according to the trend, the low would be anywhere from sometime in early october up to the 13th with the 7th as the target date ( 84.44 days average from bottom to bottom ). also, i believe the fibonacci retracement tool indicated a potential pull back to between 970 to 980. on that basis i watched and waited for the pullback so i could "buy on the dip" as it were. i realize that forecasting is not rocket science and no opinion of such is cast in stone but a pullback to 998 several days earlier than what was presented in this video was not what i was looking for. consequently, i have missed the dip. my thinking was that on the 28th of september with gold at 998 there was still more downturn coming and to wait for it. did i miss something here? i am a new investor but have learned a great deal over the past year and one of those things was to listen to the knowledge and experience of those in the know. i trusted that the information you gave in this presentation was accurate. a higher than expected bottom days earlier than originally forecast seem to indicate otherwise. i don't mean to be overly critical since this did not cost me any money other than the missed opportunity to add to my holdings before the run up. it also leaves me a bit skeptical of the information contained in these educational videos.
Richard,
Thank you for your feedback.
The videos are educational they are not meant to be trade recommendations. I simply point out what I see in the market.
If you are looking for someone to tell you the exact high or low and what time of day that is going to occur you are going to be disappointed. It just does not exist.
Chart reading is more of an art than a science. There are always anomalies that occur that skew the markets.
All the best,
Adam
hello Richard
if you need help about that i can help you.....i got an indicator who can get the very top and bottom of a trend .....just tell me what u need and i will help you.....
cheers
Jabalong,
The bottom is in for gold.
The cyclic low came in a few days early and today's strong market action confirms that a bottom is in.
Buy gold on any pullback. $1,024 is an original Trade Triangle signal today.
We expect to see gold remain strong for the balance of the year and our upside target is $1,200 - $1,300.
All the best and enjoy the ride.
Adam
Hi Adam, with the strength so far this week, do you think we've seen the bottom? If so on a closing-price basis, it would be on 29 Sept at 989 - two days before the date range you gave, but probably within line. Otherwise, we'd need to see a close below that price in the next week, which seems less and less probable with gold at 1,025 at the moment, though not impossible. Any thoughts on whether the bottom's in or not?
Paul,
Thanks you for your feedback.
I do indeed like to trade in the direction of the major trend.
Thanks for using our site. Have you checked out MarketClub yet?
All the best,
Adam
Thanks for the video - it was very interesting and informational..
I started buy gold funds back in the early 2000- 2002 period. I was a buy an hold person until shortly before the 2008 market meltdown. After 2008, I have converted - no more buy and hope! My studying of technical analysis is what eventually lead me to your site. On my way I read a fascinating book by Michael Covel called "Trend Trading". Have you read it? Do you consider yourself to be trend trader?
exelent video,thanks
Delos Adams,
Thanks for your feedback.
I agree, I believe the energy field is building for gold. The Head-and-Shoulders pattern you refer to is in place and building.
Thanks for your insight.
Adam
HELLO ADAM
iam sorry but it not an H.A.S formation....this is a double top formation on the small scale and a DOUBLE TOP formation on the bigger on to... Iam asking my self if iam the only on who see that....anyways
GOD BLESS YOU ALL
Delos Adams wrote:
Adam..
I spend some time each day enjoying your commentary and videos.
Isn't the "Gold Video" showing a possible inverse Head-and-Shoulders pattern, and price now above the neckline?
Love to hear your comment, and so learn from it.
I actually think gold has hit it's top (again).
I totally disagree with the assumption that because there have been clear cycles during the uptrend, that those cycles will continue as a market starts to top and reverse. Why else would we follow volatility?
Adam missed the momentum indication that MACD is showing. There is little doubt that we're going to see a correction here, however I think we're going to see lower lows.
Take a look at this chart from marketclub: http://www.recordpricebreakout.com/images/gold%20turning%20over.png
The market are free in the sense that Charlie Manson is free to bounce off the walls of his cell, but no freer. The IMF, BIS, World Bank, Fed,
U.S. Treasury, et al. run the show. Gold is going straight down when they tell it to, whenever that is. Does the Highway Patrol let you drive as fast as you want in your state? No. Does the FX Committee of the NY Fed monitor and police FX and commodity trading ranges? Yes. Technical analysis works well within the confines of allowed ranges, and that is more than enough to profit from. And the authorities do allow "range rescalings" at times, so a lot can happen in the markets. Just don't think they are completely free and unfettered by meddling overseers; that would be more like Disneyland for kids, not money markets in the real world of power and control.
So?
Adam,
I just watched your video on Gold. I concur with what you say, but I have slightly different reasons and a slightly different timing. I would like to discuss it with you. I have a chart I would like to send you that explains my predictions. Could you contact me through the provided email?
Thanks
Steve
Steve,
Thank you for your feedback and your offer. As much as I would like to have you explain your predictions to me unfortunately time is my most valued commodity.
If you would like to send your information to [email protected] I will do my very best to check it out. If you do not get an answer back from us, please don't take that personally. We are busy developing exciting new features for MarketClub. That's where 100% of our energies are going right now.
All the best,
Adam
I am a little confused but I thought I heard you said you went long on gold at $926.50 or almost $200 off its low of last year. If you are claiming your system is a way to trade the gold market, why didn't your system or chart analysis alert you to a point much closer to the bottom than the current top. If my math is right, you got in about 30% higher than the bottom and are now cautious after a 9% rise. Tha doesn't impress me or give me much confidence that you really understand this unique market.
Charles,
Thank you for your feedback. I am not sure that you completely understand how we approach the gold market. You were looking at one particular signal, were as, we filter our signals in gold using our daily and weekly triangles.
I don't believe we are trying to impress anybody, but I do believe I understand how the markets work. I've been in this business for over three decades have seen a lot of people come and go during that time.
You may want to look at my resume. It is not meant to impress anybody, it reflects my career history.
http://club.ino.com/trading/about-adam-hewison/
All the best,
Adam
You certainly don't have any credibility if you cannot admit the obvious - there is no market, just prices fixed by paper pushers in NY and London. If you want some proof of this, take a gold chart on a given day, then take a silver chart and overlay them. Better yet, do a correlation on these two allegedly independent markets and you will find that they move in almost total lock step. The probability of this happening in independent markets is near zero. The bankers have been fighting gold and silver all the way up, but are continuously losing their metal to those with brains who take delivery rather than trading paper ticket facsimiles. This manipulation has been demonstrated time and time again, yet it is ignored consistently. What I'd love to know is how someone like yourself can claim to know so much about markets, yet not be intellectually honest about the obvious? I am guessing it would cut into your profits and we cannot have that, now can we?
Best,
Roger
It makes no sense to blame Adam for "not admitting the obvious".
He has numerous other markets to analyze and does not have to dwell on gold.
While it is agreed that there appears to be a conspiracy theory driven by the Administration to keep gold prices down, it still makes sense to try to analyze patterns as is being dome in this case. Actually the ratio between gold and silver prices varies quite considerably though as one would expect the patterns are similar.
It is also difficult to see how taking delivery makes a difference - the price is the price is the price whether or not the commodity is held.
To be sure this market has been difficult and there are easier markets to trade.
But that does not warrant criticizing those who try to understand it - whether or not the pattern analytically identified by Adam is sustained.
While having yet to decide whether to take the trade, I for one am grateful for the insight and will be watching to see if the prediction on the downside materializes for a possible entry. If accurate this could indeed be a very large winner, adding as it does to the information from the TT's and charts.
Sincerely,
Patrick
Great analysis Adam.
If it proves correct, it will be perhaps the first signal in the gold market to do so - nevertheless there sure is a pattern there and one that is not immediately apparent to the average human, myself included. If it repeats we're all "golden" (ahem) and I'll be singing your praises even more than I already am.
In any case, the time spent in Maine certainly appears to have been beneficial.
Best wishes,
Patrick
HELLO ADAM
i really appreciate you and everything you doing ,and i learn trading with your posted video and the trade triangles....
i would like to take the right to text you because i thing the gold market will drop to arround 700 point who will be the resistance and the neck line of the big double top who is in progress ...this is for the big picture ....and for the smallest picture you can see the double top formation who is in progress to on the daily frame ...
i already posted a message about 3 week or 1 month ago about the drop of the gold but i didnt receive any feed back from yourself and i was really sad about it .... i hope this time you will please reply to me .....
and i think the drop from the gold to arround 700 point will be in about 6 to 7 month ....
please reply to me because i want to make a bet with you.....
BEST WISHES
PS....i appreciate you a lot ...thanks for everything....ADAM
Morfeus,
Thank you for your feedback.
Fortunately I do not believe in betting, so I am unable to take you up on your offer.
I do however speculate and there is a difference between speculating and betting. Speculating is assuming a risk that's already in place. Betting its creating a risk that does not exist and therefore must be considered gambling.
Thank you for using our website and all the best to you in the future.
Adam
HELLO ADAM...THANK YOU FOR YOUR REPLY ...
I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW IF YOU HAVE SEEN MY LAST POST ABOUT THE PREDICTION OF THE DOUBLE TOP BEFOR IT FORM ITSELF ,ABOUT 1 WEEK AGO,AND AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE NEXT WEEKLY TRIANGLE WILL SHOW UP ARROUND 950 TO 925......ANY WAYS...MY BET WAS ..IF IAM RIGHT ABOUT THE GOLD MARKET...I WOULD LIKE LIKE TO WORK FOR YOU AND GIVEN YOU MY FORECAST FOR THE FOREX MARKET AND THE GOLD SPOT....
IAM WAITING FOR YOUR REPLY ...
AND IAM REALLY HAPPY YOU ANSWER ME ....THANK YOU AND GOD BLESS YOU ADAM
AHS,
No I guess I missed your report.
All the best,
Adam
Mark
I think it's
Stocks = M-W
Commodities, Futures, Indexes, Forex = W-D
Stand to be corrected
Mark.
Thank you for your feedback.
We have for gold always indicated to use the weekly TT for the trend and the daily TT for timing.
For indices we use monthly the TT for trend and weekly TT for timing. Same for for stocks.
If you wanted to use the monthly TT to add another filter you can. This will cut out some but not all negative trades.
I hope this clarifies the picture for you.
All the best,
Adam
In the latest video, near the end, you referred to a new signal using the Trade Triangle, perhaps by mistake. Did you mean to say Weekly = Trend, and Daily = timing?
When did this change? Have you not been saying Monthly = Trend and Weekly = Timing?
Please clarify.
I really enjoyed this video and will certainly be watching this market closely, as ever. There always seems to be a lot of "buts" in the gold market. The IMF announces it will sell 400 tons BUT China says it might buy all of it if the price is right. BUT the market is going into a period when Indians traditionally buy gold. But, but, but.
Would you agree Adam that your cycles are a bit arbitrary? You could have begun your analysis at the high previous to the point you began. This is in no way a criticism, because you begin your analysis at a low point in the current secular bull. I think there is a lot to learned by taking the long view.
Much to think about! Especially, should I unload the physical gold, or a portion of the tiny amount I now own, and then buy back in, plus a bit more, on dips in October. I will have to puzzle that out. Long term, I think gold will go up massively because the financial world appears to be in such a mess.
Thank you for this video.