26 thoughts on “Is the employment situation improving in the US?

  1. 263 per cent increase in militia groups in the last few years. The gov just arrested a couple of wing nuts in the near vacinity yesterday. Only jobs created around here are temp min wage stuff. Everybody has a keen eye on the Walmart greeter job which is currently held by a former auto company CEO. (He beat out a former bank president for the job.)
    Fortunes are made and fortunes are lost in times of change. Dollar cotten will come again!

  2. Wow.

    The naysayers are living in the real world, they are not the people who have caused this mess - but yet once again are the convenient dumping ground. History repeats its self. Though not ultimately responsible are however a contributor, some responsibility must be taken for allowing the events to take place throughout the past 20 years or so which have lead us down this road to our nations fall. Who would not rather trust and be deceived?

    As for all of you optimists - those who have had the luxury of maintaining your livelihoods through this crisis. Yes, you may have lost some of your investments, but have not yet felt the pain. Your world is the water of your fish bowl and your environment that of plenty - for the moment. Time to open your eyes and prepare yourselves for the eminent economic shock waves soon to reaches the water of your bowl - you may not survive if you do not. Beyond the shadows of your shallow existence lies the grave future of your children.

  3. Yes, I believe there will be an uptick in job creation and expansion. But, all I am seeing so far is low wage , temporary positions. Not even enough to survive on, much less, thrive. So even though everyone will have a job, spending will be down because there will be income to blow on luxuries,

  4. I would comment along these lines... The current US administration bloated the temporary workforce to perform the 10 year census by adding 1 million hires to the originally budged 2 million temporary workers. This was an obvious attempt to buy some good numbers. When the March US unemployment numbers come out there will be a party in Washington DC claiming that the Big O has saved America for the second time since taking office. The US stock market will compliment with a huge bullish move maybe up another 1000 points but no in straight line.

    Once the census gig is over the unemployment numbers will be back to normal of about 300-400K increase per month which sounds better than before but the real net effect will produce nothing better than a flat line in consumer spending as the US consumer is tapped out, credit cards maxed and there is evidence people are actually withdrawing mutual fund cash to pay bills.

    Review: Smoke & Mirrors Job Increases for a couple of months and then back to the Grim Reaper; watch out below come end of summer.

  5. Best not to speculate about such questions. Instead follow the markets and learn. There is a close correlation historically between oil prices and jobs. Oil goes up and unemployment goes up. No real surprise there. So what is happening in the oil market? What do the triangles tell you? Go back to the 1900s and look at debt and then look again today. What do you see? People have been saying that there is too much debt for easily 100 years. Yet, we are still here. What I find interesting is that NOW we are concerned with debt. But we heard little or nothing about debt when the US invaded Iraq after previously invading Afghanistan. We don't even hear about the costs of maintaining the private mercenaries all over the world. Often we have as many mercenaries as we have soldiers in various countries. Have you heard about those salaries? How cheap is that? Furthermore we hear nothing about the debt that is created in maintaining over 700 military basis around the world This is supposed to be productive? Go figure. Small surprise that less and less is spent on research and development or science and technology, not to mention education, in the USA . Productivity is real important? To whom? Productivity is not important to monopolies. Think about it.

  6. It's amazing. People still continue to think Economists understand about how the economy works. They are ALWAYS wrong and they're really good at making up excuses for why they were wrong. I guess it comes from years of practice.

  7. Ib am seeing reports from the temp services, and from several industries that this uptick is for real. It is notn a government report, and all the gloom and doom crap that folks have been spreading for the last two years is turning out to be just that, crap. Bank lending to businesses is on the increase. The fed is starting to pull money back from the banks, albeit slowly so as not to pull the rug out from under the recovery. Companys are restocking their inventories. My sister is in the antique business in the DFW area. Her business is on the rise. My kids are telling me that food service businesses are doing bigger sales every week. Face it folks, as bad as you want things to be, they are not.

  8. We interview and hire people and we plan to hire more. Although there is a slowdown in the market we are looking for people who can help us grow the business as the economic conditions are changing for the better, as we witness weekly. This is an opportunity to find the best people who are also more then willing to leave relative secure jobs for better opportunities.

  9. I think there may be a short term up tick in job growth due to government spending. However construction jobs are short term, and more permanent government jobs are parasitic to the private economy.

  10. With all the money that is floating around (Obama Dollars) there will a short-lived bounce. After this bounce, Not So Much! I have never heard of anyone spending their way to riches. Too many problems in the economy at this time, but I do agree in the short term.

  11. KB the US unemployment data is another of the big lies. Figures don't lie, but liars figure. The most realistic number to use is their's X 2 much more accurate. The next problem with potential emerging industries is government involvement, there isn't anything they can't screw up. The next problem IS education the majority of college graduates are indoctrinated by leftist professors. They come out of college believing that they are "entitled" to start at the top, and they have no work ethic. So the only real answer is to get involved at your local level, precincts etc. Let's vote them ALL out ! Don't drink the Koolaid neither Democat or Republican we need to get rid of the politicians and get some statesmen(women) in there, people with integrity, pride, grit. It's about the rights of the Sates and the people to self determination. get the US back to the manufacturing powerhouse that we can be

  12. I reviewed the U.S. employment data and it looks like unemployment is about 15% for non high school grads, 10.9% for high school grads and 5% for people with a B.A. or above (B.A.'s include 45 million people) The total working population is about 150 million. So there is a "tale of 2 cities" in this data for sure.

    However, it is true that the U.S. gov't does mask true unemployment by not reporting discouraged workers who have not looked for a job in a few years. But this number is reported and its not as high as I thought--its about 3 million people.

    Historically, when temporary workers start getting hired, the economy is comming off the recession. I think this will be the case. But as Nouriel Roubini (www.roubini.com) points out in his data---he predicted this would be an weak recovery because so many people in the U.S. are deleveraging now---and this will take a few years. Employment will typically follow consumption. This is a harsh fact. But, there is hope--there will be new industries developing--such as the green power industries, smart grid, solar, etc. Unfortuneately, one needs an education to get these jobs. Education is really key.

  13. There are many school districts across the country that is planning on staff reductions and many stated governments and local governments in the predicament.

    I other words we weathered the storm of the private sector lay-offs -- not it looks like it is the public sector's turn.

  14. Don't worry about a thing. Obama will hire lots of government employees (16,500 in the IRS alone - to enforce Obamacare provisions). Everybody will be working for the government soon, starting with doctors. And dont't forget the national police force Obama is contemplating. We're going to need many more policemen to keep the domestic peace. Geithner and Bernanke will print lots of money and continue to manipulate the markets. The Labor Department will grind out rosy statistics while the American people languish in the mire of our new socialism. There will be plenty of new jobs and people will be paid in ever shrinking dollars. God save us all.

    1. Amen Joe,

      Everybody wanted change. Just wait until this new bubble (from all the stimulus) burst. 2008 will look like a party compared to the next one. Get prepared Joe.

  15. If one wants to know the real story on employment go to shadowstats.com, John knows his stuff and provides this information to large corporations. You will find a not so rosy picture.

    Employment while important to individuals, isn't the real problem in the USA today. Its our debt to GDP, as we have more debt as a nation the dollars borrowed wiegh down our productivity. Back in the early 1960s a dollar of new debt added almost a dollar to the nation’s output of goods and services. As more debt enters the system the productivity gained by new debt diminishes. This produced a path that was following a diminishing line targeting ZERO in the year 2015. This meant that we could expect that each new dollar of debt added in the year 2015 would add NOTHING to our productivity. Check out this article http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/most-important-chart-of-century.html We can all be working but if we add nothing to productivity, or even loose money, how long before changes are needed?

  16. In tennesse we have seen many plant closeing and historic industries(such as textile in N GA and N AL) contract or leave for Asia.
    VW is building a plant in Chatt and many other auto plants area spread through out the south. perhaps that is an indication of higher level jobs relocateing or beginning filling those lower wage offerings in textile. yet those textile jobs spread through smaller communtities and employed workers who would potentially purchase the jobs. therefore, I think, it is a net negative as smaller communities loss their autonomy to larger, industrial cityies/towns. maybe it is a good thing. progress and all. On the other hand, it may be further indication of the vice grip corporations have on our contry and therefore, the political process.
    Honestly, I could care less how much my congressman is stealing( the gangster saying goes , you are either stealing a little or a lot) but how it disenfranchses others and many without the resources and education to leave their small towns for these corporate jobs of the future.

  17. No matter what they tell us, do you think they will tell the real truth? They tried to tell us the jobs data was better when they were using statistics from the temp employment. What they fail to add in is the fact that many have run out of un-employment compensation funds and are no longer in the statistics. Count them, too.
    Then there are those that no longer do physical work for a company. There's a lot of people making an income online. Many were doing business with China online. If Google pulls out of China will this have an effect on them?

    In my opinion, I think the markets are being manipulated so that they reflect that everything is getting better to the people. I mean. How can businesses be rising in their profits when millions no longer have an income to spend as a customer to those businesses? One must look beyond what they tell us.

  18. I have been seeing signs of increased business activity in all of my travels over the past 4 months;full airplanes, crowded restaurants, firming prices in hotels and long lines for cabs! All of that activity when coupled with the "incredible" cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheets of the S%P 500 is setting the stage for a strong surge in hiring this next six months. Employers will begin to experience shortages of highly skilled workers within the next three months and that will set off a "panic" in boardrooms across the country as they scramble to hire the "most quaified" before the competetion does!

    1. I live in Silicon valley and I must agree with Frank. I too have been seeing increase activity here. I don't understand why though. Perhaps the fake market rally we are experiencing is giving individuals a false sense of greater wealth...

    2. I see the same things. Our sales are up 20% off last years
      levels and our two sister companies (FLA and Penn.) are experiencing the same.
      Be strong and go long!

  19. Here in Ohio I live in the middle of three counties with the highest employment rates in the state. The figures published by the government are a sham. Mandatory health care is a joke for people that have no money. Business of all sizes has been treated with disdain in Ohio and more are leaving every day. Police and fire protection are lacking and arson, shoot and loot are on the increase.
    The politicians that are in office are professional politicians. They never held down a job in their life and have no concept of what it takes to make a honest living. Talking heads reading teleprompters.
    Next is immigration reform. This will add 14 million more to the dole.
    No one understands that the government on all levels does not generate one dollar of profit, it only redistributes the money that it takes from the taxpayer after they pay themselves.
    We are printing dollars as fast as the presses can run. We are betting that China,India and our other creditors will not call our bluff and stop taking our dollar because they are already in too deep.
    Mandatory health care is a boon for the insurance companies. Look what happened with madatory auto insurance.

  20. With this new health care going through, I hear from the talk show hosts that small businesses as well as the larger ones, that there will be jobs laid off, so that it will capitolize on a national health care plan, and that in general there will not be the same amount of people typically rehired after such an event. I don't think that the economy has recovered enough to get us past a fall in unemployment. I think it has nore to do with employment confidence, which is still quite low in most states.

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