72 thoughts on “Poll: Black gold, Texas tea... whatever you call it, how high will it go in the next 3 months?

  1. 150 then drop like a fly in 2012. Just like in '08. The president has a cozy relationship with Big Oil right now, but it'll be disrupted by the 2012 election.

  2. Due to a collapse in US dollar currency the purchasing price of oil increased to $ 500 per barrel it's so important to change the marketing strategy end-point by a supplying the market with an optimum limit of oil supply as well.

  3. As far as the price of oil increase in an allarming rate to hurt our economy, then there should be some break-even-point to forcast the forthcoming future of an existing oil trading market

  4. Although having a chance of a remarkable bating average of $200 for 2012, still there must be unreserved effort to beat an optimum degree of succesfull trade.

  5. The question should be how low will the dollar go causing oil and gold to rise?

  6. I think we are missing the opportunity to use monies being printed and spent on economic recovery in the US by not making a major shift to natural gas. The requirements for conversion systems for existing vehicles, the addition of fueling stations, additional pipelines and storage facilities as well as additional drilling, would be a major undertaking. This would put many people back to work while relieving our dependence on foreign energy. The added benefits of cleaner emissions would be a bonus.

    The farmers might not be happy as we ween them off the energy negative corn to methanol program. I would think if we could get Exxon Mobil involved and a few of the others that make money from oil, it would be doable. There would still be enough of a requirement for oil, that domestic oil should remain profitable. Actually, oil may be too valuable to burn.

  7. The international oil market is normally perfectly fungible in that a shortage of production is reflected higher waterborne prices on a worldwide basis. The recent glaring exception is WTI due to high stocks in Cushing caused by new flow from Canada through the Keystone pipeline, but try to import a cargo for delivery into the USGC at WTI prices, impossible. Louisiana crudes trade much closer to Brent pricing. The current “risk premium” is probably around $20 to $30/barrel. This risk premium will diminish if geopolitical conditions improve allowing more certainty of future production levels or continue to increase if they don’t. $120 is a good bet for now, but if MENA political conditions deteriorate further one could easily make a case for $200 in 2011.

  8. True how every little and big problem...there will someone who blames the President...how he is supposed to "solve" the energy problem or even address it given that we one of the only developed countries without an energy policy...well..how could that be anything to do with him?

    He will have about as much success with an energy policy as he did with healthcare...none.

    The reality is...the ONLY thing in the world that will make us have a wise and common sense energy policy is if the price of oil and gas stays high for a long time sorry to say.

  9. hi all my dear traders,

    this is simple tip for all you guyz sell crude oil @ 106.20$ it will be reverse from there and retest 99.30$..

    Have nice trading

    Nadeem ansari


  11. I know.... it's delusional but name calling is unproductive. Jim Brooks is basically saying this also below.. "The only way green energy works is if you can jack up the cost of energy to the point where green energy is cost effective. President BO is doing all that he can to achieve this goal". Political assassination is a more logical conclusion to the consequences of high oil prices, given the state of our economy. This prejudice...I want to support my President way of thinking is not thinking at all. Obama's re-election will depend on #1-Jobs #2-bringing US troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan. If he is persuaded by the fascists to launch another war in Libya, when being advised against by Gates (Cameron BTW has just been advised to re-consider by his British Chiefs)then I guarantee he will be voted out as wars will spread further and more US troops will come home in body bags and physically/psychologically disabled . The big problem we face is that the best interest of the working population in America is not in the best interest of the Corporatism, and we are losing.

  12. Hi, oil will go back to 50.00-$60.00. Future has begun and Europe do everything to save "PIEG" countries.

  13. That's right, the American media says nothing about the potential collapse of the dollar and why.. they prefer blaming the rest of the world for everything. Americans lived beyond their means and try to sustain it by printing money ... won't work.

  14. The question is interesting and the answers are largely speculative... after all, as we've recently seen, various world events always have an impact on commodity prices. What is more important is identifying the momentum and being on the right side of that momentum trade. A few of my recent picks have really benefitted from being on the right side of the market... and the stop losses will ensure if the momentum shifts down, I'll make a profit!

  15. You have worded the question with a bias. You are assuming the price of oil will continue to rise and you could be right. You have not given an option to those who think the price of oil will fall so you get their opinion.

  16. I would not be surprised at all to see oil start to fall back in the next week as the initial fear starts to wear thin and people realise once again that they haven't died.

  17. I agree with mike speculate on something else what about alternative energy,more electric cars are being purchased every day,wind and solar energy is also on the increase,they also reduce our reliance on imported oil,from countries that are becoming increasingly volatile,and they are much cheaper to run than a conventional vehicle/power plant/house/building with no pollution whatsoever,an invisible plus perhaps gday dave j

  18. My clarivoyant friend says....

    Kadafy to topple in a few days;
    In the meantime oil spikes to almost $110;
    A temporary lull in ME politics brings oil back to almost $88;
    April brings renewed trouble to ME and oil tops at $120;
    Don't bank on this but remember it in the spirit of curiosity.


  20. Petroleum products have been sent to and are now in outer space, therefore the sky is the limit.

  21. Where does 80% of the crude oil used in the US come from? It definitely does NOT come from the middle east. Why is it that all of the legislators, Senators and Representatives, keep their hands in their pockets when it comes time to allow more drilling and exploration in the US, Canada and Mexico? Is it because they are paid by the lobbyists to stay out of the way? Some of us know where the BIG money is and it is passed on to our over paid, under producing politicians.
    Now we have our trouble stirring media telling us what they are told by the same lobbyists and politicians that the price of crude oil will go up to ?????. Funniest thing, the oil doesn't cost the middle east people any more to pump it now than it did when we were told the price was $30.00 a barrel.

  22. In order to reasonably answer the question "How high do you think oil is going to go?" a time frame should be specified. Otherwise, you are letting us establish an arbitrary time period. Therefore, the sky could really be the limit with the way things are going around the world, epecially in the middle east. You might as well ask "How high is the sky?"

  23. Oil is directly connected to the price of food as well as the supply/demand of oil. When we subsidize ethanol production for political reasons we take food corn off of the market thus raising the price of food worldwide. We create higher prices for food worldwide and we increase poverty in countries that produce oil. When hungry people revolt, the price of oil goes up. When we curb our production of domestic oil, the price of oil will rise. When we devalue the dollar, the price of oil will rise. It should come as no surprise that when you do all of the above you create the perfect storm. The only way green energy works is if you can jack up the cost of energy to the point where green energy is cost effective. President BO is doing all that he can to achieve this goal.

  24. This is a good trading possition, since oil selling low and dollar currency is declinning.

  25. Are you asking for predictions for the near term, mid term or long term. Depending on that all answers would be correct.

  26. Tom, you are a jerk!!!! How can you sit there and say the president wants higher oil prices. You say under normal circumstances we would have hidden political agendas to suppress prices, well what hidden agendas you referring to. Political assassination, full scale invasion, blockade, or what? Gun boat diplomacy doesn't work to solve our energy problem. Those are old school tactics that don't work anymore. It's a brave new world out there.

    This crisis was started by people wanting to have more freedom in their lives and more say so as to who governs them. Neither the President nor gov't officials want higher energy prices cause that would choke off any economic recovery we're experiencing.

    So don't go around spreading these venomous lies about President Obama wanting higher oil prices. It just shows your ignorance.

  27. thats all up to the communist muslim puppet in the white house. He will do as told by the muslim brotherhood bosses. we could save million of gallons just by taking the keys away for air force one, from the freeloading terrorist living in the white house. Fire the nazi, TSA gestapo, molesting our children and women without warrants! I thought by now , true americans, would have stood up against obozo HUSSAIN's, private army. They are now at train stations (malls next), to harass USA citizens.

  28. Short-term resistance appears to be $106. Maybe it moves up to $120 by mid/late April, then consolidates for the next few months before heading to $180.
    Seems like there is a more important event here than simply how high oil will go.
    We may be seeing history made.
    WHAT IF we are seeing the fall of OPEC?
    And if that happens, would a new global paradigm usher in a gold-standard?
    Just toying ideas, of course....

  29. Just out from FT
    Oil officials and shipbrokers said that Libya exported about 570,000 barrels a day in the last week of February, when the unrest started, and shipped about 400,000 b/d this week. At current prices, the oil shipped over the two-week period is worth $770m.

    The export flow is now tailing off as more oil companies and tanker owners stop dealing with Libya because of reputational risk, executives and shipbrokers said. However, Chinese and Indian companies have continued buying the crude, they said.

    UN and European sanctions do not target the Libyan central bank and US sanctions do not hit Libyan-owned groups incorporated outside the country.

  30. Qadhafi's "Green Book" is actually quite impressive if you read it, I think we could all relate to it. I'm starting to think Qadhafi and his Son's may survive this crisis, and hopefully take heed to a civil constitution and rid state corruption. Also, ministers who resigned in Libya to join the West does not mean they aren't corrupt. Let's not kid ourselves here, this armed revolt is out for power and oil too. The US and British media have been preaching out of their ass on at least half the coverage of Libya. I think Benghazi will become isolated and public pressure will build to end the resistance there to get life back to work. I think civil war can be avoided as long as Gates can keep the US out of the situation. A few days ago the resistance asked the US to stay out, and when they started to lose many fighters to Qadhafi, they changed their tune crying for US air raids. I say let the people of Libya deal with Libya on their own.

  31. I think it's time they put more push on natural gas and start converting all we can to this . we have the resources in the us and canada to cut deep into these trouble spots in the world we don't need them .I think the price might tank up for awhile but settle back to 1oo

  32. As long as we go on needing oil to run the world we are at risk. The tech. is well developed but the oil companies and the Middle East still rule the roost. When are we going wake up?? My mother worked for a major oil company in the 50/60's and even then they were making sure that inventions that removed the need for oil never saw the light of day. They have the $'s!! so they can control the game. One day their achieves will be opened and then people will see what they have been missing out on all these years.Future generations will be amazed at how we have been manipulated since the beginning of the 20thC.

  33. Any disruption in the flow of oil is inflationary, after all oil is anchored in US Dollars. The supply of oil is seriously threatened by protests, revolts and a delusional uncertain US administration. The US Dollar is also threatened by the cost of committing more assets to war in the Middle East. Peter should be more specific. It sounds pointless to me to say the sea floor is holding the boat more than the anchor. Let me put it this way: net sellers of US debt are buying foreign denominated assets and currencies which increase the price of oil more than net buyers of oil. The mechanics of a US dollar collapse is an interesting and complicated subject. Remember, any asset class that is priced in US dollars is hinged to it, welcome to the hegemony of the US Dollar and the Federal Reserve Printing Press, which defends the US Dollar from its deserters. The single biggest threat to this hegemony is when Middle East oil becomes sovereign and commands alternative payments in non-dollar denominated currencies and assets. Assets priced in US Dollars mechanically anchor the consequences of inflation on the backs of US creditors and global labor markets, with the majority of wealth destruction expropriated from the working class. Tight monetary policies of export economy result in higher unemployment where domestic economy lacks fluid to absorb its loss of employment. A trade surplus denominated in US Dollars is eventually punished for non-reciprocation of trade. Emerging economies domestic markets will become more fluid as Washington is less relevant in the Middle East. There has to be a power shift away from US hegemony to politically open these markets through economic policy. The US will discover dialogue along the way.

    Target for oil is Trade Triangles

    1. Marcus,

      The Trade Triangles traded the oil perfectly when it was over $140 a barrel. I expect the same thing will happen this time. Trade Triangles are unemotional and do not watch cable or read the news. Price action says it all.

      All the best,

  34. Look for 200 or higher, are President said he didn't mind gas at $4.00 per gal. Of course he doesn't have to pay for it, or fill his car up. So don't look for any help from the Government. He's not saying let them eat cake, he's saying let them buy bikes.
    I'm ok because I own Exon and Devon.

  35. Look for 200 or higher, are President said he didn't mind gas at $4.00 per gal. Of course he doesn't have to pay for it, or fill his car up. So don't look for any help from the Government. He's not saying let them eat cake, he's saying let them buy bikes.
    I'll be ok because I own Exxon and Devon.

  36. Something interesting they mentioned on some financial show yesterday. We get absolutely none of our oil from Libya and Libya itself supplies about 2% of the worlds needs..although it is the "sweet crude"...

    It makes sense all oil would go up in general due to uncertainty but I don't think it will go to 200. I will guess if it gets to $115 or so the government will tap reserves or something but as the economies recover and grow oil was due to go up anyway.

    I was lucky enough to get in on UGA a few weeks back. Its almost the only thing working for me so grateful for that. TigerBlood!

  37. it all depends on what time frame. There is only so much of the stuff in the ground and now China and India are using more and that is only going to increase, so I see the price of oil increasing with the demand for it, In time it will pass its previous hi of 147 an with more time go pass $200 and if we don't find a better technology to replace it then the sky is the limit!!!!!!

  38. The current administration still does not allow drilling in the Gulf of Mexico (Court order ended 2 moratoria but only one (1) new permit so. far. last. week. How slow can you go.

    They were predicting 7% increase in production in the Gulf, now calling for 12-13% decrease there this year. More of same next year. That is about 300,000 barrels per day this year.) Lots of lost jobs and a step away from energy independence. Also about 30 million per day ( 1 billion per month) added to the imbalance of trade. "Never let a crisis go to waste."

  39. Don't know, don't care.
    Red Weekly Triangle, I'm out,
    Red Monthly Triangle, I'm short.
    Then the opposite for the Greens.
    Works perfectly for my current 4-Basket Portfolio: IWM, SLV, XLE & DBC.

  40. c'mon this libya provides like 2% or less of what is used here.Give me a break.Someone is lining there pockets very nicely,Just a bunch of BS.

  41. Sooner or later young and rest less protest will engulf China and that should be the end. China will blame the US and dollar will be taost, no more world currency, oil goes to $ 500 per barrel as dollar collapes. Time frame mid 2012. Bernanke will still be printing to fight fire with fire!!

  42. Peter Schiff said on his radio show today that inflation is driving the price of oil higher more than the turmoil in the mid-east. He tends to be proven right in most cases. I still think the mid-east conflicts are a convenient scape-goat to distract people from the truth of the collapsing US dollar.

  43. The U.S. is not going to respond to the Libya situation. Looks like they backed off yesterday. Reports I am seeing say Libya ports are now only delivering 50% of their oil and I think this number will shrink to zero as the country falls into Civil War.

    The rest of the middle east including Saudi Arabia are vulnerable to similar insurrections.

    If the U.S does not intervene this time----the Arabs wont and certainly the Europeans should but they always seem to stay out.

    The oil flow is threatened, so it can spike as high as 200 on pure speculation. Sayonara Mr. Market.

  44. This is another wake up call to end our
    dependence on oil, especially foreign.
    We all know it's possible.
    Guess we need a Steve Jobs or Bill Gates type
    to make it a reality.

  45. The question is meaningless without a time frame. Next week? Next year? Five years from now?

  46. It all hinges on Saudia Arabia and Iran. Iran could stir up a lot of problems causing Saudia Arabia to fall, $200 oil would be a shoe in then.

  47. I can not provide an answer to the open-ended question. I receive information from many sources and one source said that oil was over-priced here and 75-80 was a better bet near term. With such a divergence of opinion I will invest in something else for now.

  48. We're focusing at the moment on Libya, but the unrest in nearly all the Middle Eastern countries has huge potential for trouble. The main struggle being between the Suunis' (Saudi Arabia) and the Shiites (Iran,Syria,Lebanon.) These troubles finally boiling to the surface represents a Sea Change that will affect oil not only short-term, but longer-term. We have squandered so many opportunities for an energy plan and a chance to make major, beneficial changes.

    Whether oil goes to $120, $130, $150 or $200, it is going to further hurt our economy and the global economy. Everyone talks about how high the market goes in the 3rd year of a presidential cycle. I think it could be different this time. I think oil and the Mideast trauma could swamp us, but I hope not.

  49. I would have been betting on oil dropping in one month. Under normal U.S. political leadership we would have hidden agendas to supress price. This is not normal. Our President, as stated,desires higher energy prices. This is in his wheelhouse.

  50. There is oil in the Williston basin, Alaska, Canada, Brazil,Chile,Argentina,Mexico, Russia,Norway and others. At these higher prices we can afford to speed up the exploration, drilling and refining from these sources.

  51. Talk about an "it depends" question.............
    Status quo: $120
    It turns out Saudi reserves aren't as large as we all thought: $150
    Saudi Arabia and Iran get at it as Bahraini troubles expand: $200

    And if we wait long enough $200 is entirely reasonable. A good follow up question would be in what year oil costs $200.

  52. Lindsey Williams says $200 by end of 2012. Whether you believe his story or not, he has a remarkable batting average.

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