The unemployment rate fell for the fifth straight month after a surge of January hiring. Is this a promising shift in the outlook for job growth?
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The MarketClub team
29 thoughts on “Unemployment rate falls to 8.3%”
In the month of Jan. there were 1.2 million droped out of the work force.
I have found that most people in the stock market are dumb. I remember a survey I did back in April of 2009 asking if the market had bottomed and if things were going to turn around. Most people said no way. Of course they were all wrong and had you listened to popular opinion rather than trading the trend, you missed the greatest 10 month bull run in the history of the stock market.
This survey shows the same thing. Most people can't help but bring their biases into their stock trading. Most of the time, those biases are republicanism in nature, but in almost all cases, it's an error on the side of negativism. All this vain babbling about the government lying, Ben Bernanke is just dropping money out of a helicopter, hyperinflation destroying the value of the US dollar, is just biased noise. Tune it out if you want to make a living as a stock trader.
It seems incredible that you would have to state the obvious: trust your eyes. Believe what you see. Listen to what the market is telling you. It's a great time to go long this market until the trend tells us otherwise. Who do you think bought the market on the jobs news yesterday? Institutional traders that drive 75% of market action on any given day. They have access and better fundamental analysis tools than you do. If they're buying then you need to be to.
But back to surveys. I have found that betting in the opposite direction of the majority of amateur trader responses will land you more winning trades than in following the dumb herd's opinions. Surveys totally break down when it comes to trading and it's one of the few times when the populace is not smarter than the few.
the real problem with employment is the wages and hours worked.most middle class incomes have not kept pace with the federal reserve induced inflation.these inflation policies hurt the middle class and the savers.i wonder what the real gdp # would look like if you backed out inflation for the past 15 years.when will people wake up. the fiscal policies of this country have been causing artificial inflation for years juicing the gdp look at the way they keep changing the way inflation is calculated. bring back king dollar stop the inflation and come up with fiscal policies for real growth not inflation induced
I can't believe that 27 percent of the respondents accept the numbers coming out of the government. WHAT ARE YOU SMOKING?????????? Between the politicians and the lifetime Burocrats if we ever get anything bordering on honesty out of that gang, the world will come to an end.
Anyone that believes anything coming out of Washington is an absolute fool. Any incumbent with 2 terms should be voted out or impeached depending on their crimes. Saints in Washington are guilty by association and should also be thrown out of the government. Congress and the White House should be a 1 time event in their lives and then back to the real world an get a real job. I bet thing would get fixed real quick if this was the case.
The gov't has been lying to us for so long now they could tell the truth and we still wouldn't believe them. I don't believe this anymore than I have believed any of their for years.
I believe the unemployment numbers are calculated from the number of people actually drawing unemployment checks. It does not count the number of people out of work who have drawn the maximum number of weeks. You probably will not hear a lot about extending # weeks benefit until after the election.
How about that Payroll Tax that we must pass? The payroll tax is a reduction of employee social security contribution from 6% to 4%. I guess Obama solved the Social Security problem in some magical way that I missed.
9.1...9.0...8.9...8.7...8.5...8.3...say what you want about the integrity of the numbers. The DECLINE in the the rate is what is going to be looked at.
Not by the smart money. The smart money knows the books are cooked and will plan their positions according to their own strategies.
and all the people here who protest that the actual unemployment rate is 15-20% only lend favor to the idea that we are close to a bottom, or at least a bounce.
So much negativity out there that it makes you wonder if the bottom is in. Is this the ultimate bottom before the economy? Ehh, who knows. One thing is for sure. The bottom will come when you least expect it and when 'most' people are negative about the future. And you you gold guys... just a warning, gold will crash and burn prior to the economic/restructuring turnaround that you're waiting for. Do you really think you'll be able too look at the all the fundamentals and numbers, say to yourself "it looks good" and then sell your gold? I'm just asking.
Is this a promising shift in the outlook for job growth? My answer is we will never know based on the employment numbers. The BLS numbers are so inaccurate and include these birth / death models that pull numbers out of thin air, that I would never make a forecast with them. However, the numbers released only matter to traders. If better than forecast, well the dollar rallies, market rallies and its risk on. That's what you got today.
If you really want to get your finger on the pulse of the economy, ask a small business owner. Ask them how business is. Are they hiring? Ask entrepreneurs, the backbone of our economy for a real answer.
In addition, this job number looks in the rear view mirror. The market is looking forward so, is it predictive of higher stock prices? Not necessarily. I use the trade triangles to keep me in tune with the larger and shorter term trends of the market.
Record 1.2 Million People Fall Out Of Labor Force In One Month, Labor Force Participation Rate Tumbles To Fresh 30 Year Low
8.3 means nothing....
Just Curious....What month and what year did that happen. I don't remember anyone saying it was going to be easy fixing the mess of the final months of the Bush adm. And let's not forget, these "baby steps" are taking place without the help of the "bailedout banks"
That was this morning's headline on Drudge. That 1.2 million out of the labor force was for the month of January, 2012. When you re-define that many people out of unenployment, the numbers become straight up lies.
My prediction in November was that we'd see a .1-.3 drop every month, until the election. Whether the jobs exist, or not.
Exactly....why does MarketPlace insist on continuing to draw attention to meaningless info from a trading perspective? It accomplishes nothing but creates false misdirection and confusion. It adds nothing to staying focused on what matters in a trading context.
Election year manipulations...
still not counting people that gave up on looking!
"YOU CAN FOOL SOME OF THE PEOPLE ALL OF THE TIME......."
Best answer as to what people believe? Dow up by over 100 points.
And if you add workers who have stopped job-searching for various reasons or who are working part-time but want to be full time(U-6), the rate goes to 15.1%.
This could be the beginning of the beginning. Some people will point out that we are just going through a cycle which normally switches around during the second year of the decade. The catch phrase around here is to follow the trend... Perhaps triangles can be applied against employment data...
Sure the numbers are correct. As long as you don't count all the people that have given up looking for work, are working at lousy jobs they are overqualified for, are working part time, etc etc. Try a 20% unemployment rate and you are closer to the truth.
Yes, unemployment is going down, just like we have low inflation. Buy any food or gas lately? Pay for college or health care? My wages are essentially the same as they were 4-5 years ago (I am a teacher), but food prices here have at least tripled, gas prices doubled. Tuition for a state college is 15 times what it cost when my brother and I went to school. Students are coming out of college owing up to $70,000 for getting their Bachelors degree, and often cannot find work.
The service sector economy is a house of cards, a castle built on sand. Our industrial base is gone here in the US, we have replaced it with the printing press churning out US petrodollars at exponential rates. We have the illusion that we can continue this process indefinitely, that we can create trillion$$ out of electronic thin air on an annual basis to prop up insolvent banks, carry on foreign wars, and continue to purchase cheap consumer goods made overseas by people working for what we would consider slave labor wages.
Phony statistics may seem particularly useful in an election year, but the reality is getting rather hard to hide.
You are so right in your comments. Numbers are shuffled by the
government to reflect what is expected and who knows what the real answer is.
The US has a slow recovery so of course it will fall.
Never, ever should Americans be so pessimistic. Leave that for the citizens of the PIGS.
And when the corrected numbers come out next week will you believe those?
Yeah right..........you'll never hear about the "corrected" number that will come out next week.
Pure Obama eyewash!
Numbers don't lie, people do. However people can only lie so often or so big before they are caught. Therefore these numbers could be skewed, but I think the trend is your friend here.
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