How to spot winning trades in 2009

In this short video, our first of 2009, Adam Hewison explains how to spot winning trades using MarketClub's Smart scan technology.

Adam also explains in detail a specific trade that he thinks is worth watching in the New Year.

Enjoy the video and if you have any questions please call our friendly support staff at 1-800-538-7424

All the best in 2009.

Wall Street enjoys upbeat start to 2009

From our media partner Associated Press.

Wall Street enjoys upbeat start to 2009

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street started the new year optimistically Friday as investors brushed off a weaker-than-expected report on manufacturing and sent stocks sharply higher. The Dow Jones Industrials jumped about 250 points and above 9,000.

The market wasn't spooked by the Institute for Supply Management's report that its manufacturing activity index fell to the lowest level in 28 years in December. The Street's cool reaction extends a pattern that began to emerge after the market touched multiyear lows on Nov. 20.

Economic data have been terrible for months and investors have shown little surprise even as some readings fell well short of economists' already low expectations. During past recessions, the market has recovered ahead of the economy by growing numb to a stream of poor data and looking for signs that the downturn isn't worsening.

The ISM, a trade group of purchasing executives, said Friday its manufacturing index fell to 32.4 in December from 36.2 in November. Economists polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 35.5; a figure below 50 indicates contraction.

Wall Street's move higher comes amid light trading after the New Year's holiday. Modest volume can lend buoyancy to the market as upbeat buyers have reason to come out and those with less conviction stay home.

Investors will be looking to Monday's session, when volume is expected to be greater, as a better barometer of market sentiment for 2009. The final session of the week follows a terrible year for investors. The Dow fell 33.8 percent in 2008, its worst performance since 1931.

Still, the market's move higher was welcome.

"We like to see the markets shrug off the bad news. That typically is a sign that we're forming a bottom," said Eric Thorne, an investment adviser at Bryn Mawr Trust.

In late afternoon trading, the Dow rose 247.95, or 2.83 percent, to 9,024.34, its first move above 9,000 since Dec. 8.

Like the Dow, broader stock indicators also advanced for the third straight session. The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 27.05 percent, or 2.99 percent, to 930.30, its highest level since No. 10. The Nasdaq composite index rose 50.25, or 3.19 percent, to 1,627.28.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 7.06, or 1.41 percent, to 506.51.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by about 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to a light 706.8 million shares.

Bond prices fell as investors took on riskier assets. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 2.42 percent from 2.22 percent late Wednesday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.09 percent from 0.08 percent Wednesday.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Light, sweet crude rose $1.51 to $46.11 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Thorne contends 2009 could be a strong year for Wall Street because most investors are so shaken from the sell-off in 2008, which erased six years of gains in stocks. Market bottoms often emerge because investors are so pessimistic or because stocks seem incapable of making any sustained recovery.

"A bottom isn't formed in one day or even in one month but probably over several months," he said. "Expectations are extremely low for the economy, for corporate earnings and for the stock market itself."

From Nov. 20 to the end of 2008, the Dow advanced 16.2 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 20 percent.

"We're very confident that the $9 trillion that is in cash right now will look to find a home in better-performing assets," he said, referring to the amount of money invested in conservative but low-yielding areas like money market funds. Yields on safe investments like Treasurys have fallen to virtually nil as investors have clamored for safety and surrendered hopes of even earning a return on their money.

Todd Leone, managing director at Cowen & Co., cautioned against reading too much into Friday's advance and said the first full week of the new year should provide insight into investor sentiment for 2009.

"The first five days are usually very telling," Leone said. "I'm not sure we'll be up or down." He said an advance in stocks Friday wasn't a surprise as some investors start the year by wading into the market. He said selling is more likely to occur next week.

Investors had little corporate news to go on Friday other than the completion this week of some major banking acquisitions. Bank of America Corp. finalized its deal to acquire Merrill Lynch & Co. Wells Fargo & Co. closed its acquisition of Wachovia Corp., while PNC Financial Services Group Inc. bought National City Corp.

The dealmaking came after the mortgage and credit turmoil torpedoed bank's balance sheets and sent banks' stocks tumbling. In some cases, banks grappling with liquidity shortages and rising loan losses were forced to make deals to remain in business.

Next week brings a flurry of economic readings and potentially early comments from companies on their 2008 results and 2009 forecasts.

A Labor Department report next Friday on December employment is expected to draw attention. A month ago, Wall Street showed newfound resiliency in the face of a bad reading on what is typically the most important economic report of the month. Stocks initially sagged but finished with big gains Dec. 5 after the government reported that employers slashed a larger-than-expected 533,000 jobs in November. Investors were hoping the poor report would prompt Washington to take broader steps to shore up the economy.

"The employment numbers will almost undoubtedly be very ugly. What will be interesting to see is what the market's reaction will be to those numbers," said Thorne. "We're also very interested to see what the corporate earnings reporting season will be like."

Stocks overseas also began the new year with a rally. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 2.88 percent, Germany's DAX index jumped 3.39 percent, and France's CAC-40 increased 4.09 percent. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday.

The secret to trading success in 2009

This little trading tip can and will make a difference in your trading results in 2009.

Stops are enormously important part of a traders arsenal of trading tools. Some traders confirm that stops are the most important part of their trading armour.

So here are three ways to use stops to protect your capital and lock in profits from a trade. These three money management techniques can be used in stock, futures and forex trading.

The important rule is that you do use a real stop in the marketplace. A friend of mine joked with me that that he had never seen a "mental stop" filled in the pits.

If the market is good your stop will not be hit. If the market is bad or changing direction then you'll want to be out of it anyway. That is why stops are so crucial to trading success.

Here are the three most commonly used types of stops. Which one do you use?

(1) Dollar stop.
(2) Percentage stop.
(3) Chart stop.

If you chose (1) you'd be correct, but, you would also be correct if you had chosen 2 or 3. All three are money management stops and are used to either lock in profits or protect capital.

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1) A dollar stop, is when you set a predetermined dollar amount to a trade. Let's say you want to risk $500 on a grain trade or $750 on a stock trade. Once you get your fill back from your broker or electronically online you simply figure from your fill price where to put your stop.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close in a volatile market

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2) Percentage stop, is a very simple way for you to place a stop on a position. Here's how it works. Let's say your trading account is 100,000 dollars and let's say you only want to risk 1% of your total portfolio on any one trade. You simply take a $1,000 risk which represents 1% of your over all portfolio. This can help enormously in avoiding taking BIG LOSSES. A 1% loss is easy to absorb. A 30% or 40% loss in a trade is an account killer, and should be avoided at all costs.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close.

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3) Chart stop, a chart stop is where you place a stop that is either above or below a crucial chart level. The good thing about a chart stop is that this level is often used by other traders. That can both be a good thing and a bad thing, here's why. Using either one of our first two examples only you know where the stop is. With a chart stop, a great many traders/brokers know that is where the stops are. In an illiquid market this type of stop should not be used, as many times brokers gun for the stops. In a highly liquid and active market this is a good stop to use.

Pros: Very easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can't be used in thinly traded markets.

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So there you have it. Now you have all three ways to manage your money and protect your profits in 2009.

Use stops…let them work for you.

Have a great 2009.

Adam Hewison

How to spot winning trades in 2009 (video).

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