How my worst trade, turned out to be my best trade ever!!

Today I'd like to share with you my worst trade ever. In retrospect it turned out to be my best trade.

Here's why...

I started in the commodities business as a broker for a company called Conti Commodity Services. Conti was a division of Continental Grain Co. one of the largest and oldest grain companies in the world. Back in the 70s, Conti was just starting a new division to handle customers in the brokerage business. I was lucky enough to have them hire me as I had no experience and very little education. But, I was enthusiastic and willing to learn.

So there I was at Conti Commodity Services dialing and smiling and looking to get business for myself and the company. All this was back in the 70s when grain prices were skyrocketing. After a brief time on the job I guess I thought I knew better than everybody else.

So here’s my worst trade...

I was following the wheat market, just like everyone else because markets were hot. All of a sudden a slumbering December wheat market shot up dramatically on no news. I thought to myself that wheat had gone up too far and too fast, so I went short (that is I sold something that I didn’t own). It had to come down, right? That alone shows you how naïve I was back then. Well, for 20 minutes I looked like a hero. Rather than take a small profit when I had it, I decided I’d sit and wait for a bigger profit (call that greed). Well, you probably know what happened next, wheat closed up the limit and I was unable to get out of my short position and finished the day with a loss. Well I said to myself that wheat has got to pull back tomorrow, right? In the commodity markets, things only go from bad to worse when you're on the wrong side of a trade and that's what happened to me and my wheat position. I am not going to bore you with the gory details or the pain I went through, but the bottom line was I lost $10,000 on that trade. It doesn't seem like a lot of money now, but back then when I was just starting up my career it seemed like an insurmountable fortune.

To be truthful it was the best thing that could ever happen to me and here's why...

I learned a very tough lesson in that wheat trade, one that I've never forgotten. I've learned that there are two sides to every coin, two sides to every sword and two sides to every trade. For every profit opportunity you see in the marketplace there is an associated risk that comes along with that profit. I learned the value of risk management and why there is no free lunch when it comes to the markets.

Later in my trading career I’ve lost much more than $10,000 in other trades, but it never bothered me because I was managing my risk. A friend of mine lost over a million dollars on one trade. To many, this would seem like an insurmountable amount of money to lose on one trade. But my friend is trading with $50 million, so a $1 million loss is only 2% of his risk capital which is certainly very manageable. It is when you lose 40%, 50% or 60% of your capital on a single trade that it becomes very difficult, if not impossible to come back from.

So when I say my worst trade happened to be my best trade; I mean it. In my mind that early loss in December wheat was a priceless education in risk management that I still use to this day.

I cannot say enough about risk management and how you should manage your risk, but here are some trading tips that will help you avoid disasters like mine..

You must use stops. You must be disciplined. You must be diversified. If you have those three core trading items in your portfolio, you can survive and thrive no matter what the market throws your way.

I hope that like me, your worst trade turns into your best trade in the long run.

Every success in trading and in life,

Adam Hewison
Co-founder MarketClub.com

You got it right!

Congratulations to all readers of this blog.

I would like to thank you for participating in all our polls that we have posted over last several months. The predictive power of these visitor blog polls has been amazing.

Not only did you predict months ago that the dollar had not bottomed out, but the collective poll indicated negativity for the U.S. economy. Both of these predictions turned out to be 100% correct.

Our latest poll is asking who will be the Democratic nominee for president? The results have been very interesting. I believe our poll voters have it correct, 44% of you indicated that you are just plain tired of this going on for so long. In fact, it was quite a relief last week to see the Pope Benedict on television instead of Clinton or Obama. So once again I believe the poll has it right, the majority of people are just tired of the whole thing.

Today being Tuesday, it's time for the Pennsylvania primary. Our poll indicates that Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton overall and will be the Democratic nominee for president. Obama leads Clinton by a two to one margin overall . We did not do a poll for Pennsylvania as we believe that it was too narrow a focus for our users. We believe Obama’s lead on this poll is significant as it is coming from a financially related website.

Tonight, I'm sure many of us will be glued to CNN watching the results come in precinct by precinct. We are all hoping for an end to this incredibly long process to nominate a candidate.

The purpose of this blog posting today is to thank you for participating in all of our previous polls and encourage you to vote in new polls that we are planning in the months ahead.

One thing I found out today on this blog is that you can actually e-mail a friend on any of the blog postings. You may like to do this with some of our videos.

Here’s how you do it. At the end of every post, you will see a number of little icons that help “spread the word”. To the right of that, you will see several links called: a promo, print, e-mail and comment.

If you'd like to e-mail a friend about this blog, any postings or any video that we do, please use the easy to use e-mail link that I just mentioned.

If you'd like to add your comments to this blog, just click the comment button. Quite honestly we encourage you to comment on our posts.

If you'd like to post your own experience about the markets on this blog, please send us a comment and we will reply to you. Also include your telephone number so that we can reach you if we have any questions. As you know, we are not brokers so we won’t be asking you to open the account with us. Rest assured your privacy is guarded with our company.

Thanks for taking the time to read this brief posts and lets see what happens tonight with the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania. All the best in life and in the markets.

Adam Hewison
Co-founder MarketClub.com

P.S. If you missed any of the "Traders Whiteboard" series watch them here.

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It is a no-brainer ...

It’s a no-brainer.

If I've heard that expression once, I have heard it a thousand times from traders over the years.

While trading in the pits of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange early in my career, that expression was a common phrase used by many of my fellow traders on the trading floor. Many traders are saying that MarketClub is a no-brainer, we prefer to think of MarketClub as a refuge for smart traders.

Today we are looking at the forex market and in particular the EURO/YEN cross. This cross first came to our attention in MarketClub’s portfolio alerts system. So, today I decided to spend a little time and analyze this market for you.

As you may know the foreign exchange market is a $3 trillion a year market, making it the biggest market in the world. This game is played 24 hours a day, six days a week. The EURO/YEN cross has had a particularly big move over the last several years, the question now is: is this cross going to continue higher?

In my detailed analysis of the EURO/YEN cross, you will see my reasons and my analysis for why this market could be beginning a big move right now.


We'll also be looking at this market scientifically using MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology. This technology has enjoyed a great deal of success in forex as well as other markets. The “Trade Triangle” approach is a totally driven, non-emotional way to look at any market including the EURO/YEN cross.

I'm sure you'll get a lot out of this seven minute video as it will help you further understand how the markets really work.

Every success in trading and in life,

Adam Hewison
Co-founder of MarketClub.com

Did we miss the move in GOOGLE? Answer: yes and no.

This news taken from AP on 4/17/08. AP is a new addition to MarketClub’s growing list of news services:
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(AP:NEW YORK) Earnings reports dominated the tech sector this week, with strong first-quarter results from industry heavyweights like Google Inc. and IBM Corp. providing reassurance in a season dominated by economic concern.

Google said late Thursday that its first-quarter profit and revenue handily beat analysts' expectations, easing fears that the economic slowdown could hurt the company. Google said its total paid clicks grew 20 percent year over year _ less than in previous quarters, which Google attributed to changes meant to improve the quality of clicks and, eventually, generate more revenue from fewer clicks.

After Google's report, its shares soared, finishing Friday's trading up 20 percent at $539.41, marking the stock's largest one-day percent gain and a dramatic change from the past several months. Google's market value had declined 35 percent since late December as investors worried about broader economic weakness hurting the company.
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See how we view GOOGLE in this short video.

Enjoy the video. We encourage your feedback on all our posts.

Adam Hewison
Co- founder, MarketClub.com

I am so humbled ...

We received this comment from Frank who is one of our MarketClub members.

All I can say is thanks for putting in words what we have long known at MarketClub.

I am so humbled by your comments.

Thank you,


Adam
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Here are Frank's unabridged comment:

I used to be a Cramer fan, until I realized that Cramer could not possibly make me , or anyone else, any money in any market save a secular bull market, and I'm being kind ! To buy, and to back the truck up every time the stock goes down is a surefire way to lose a large amount of money, and I find that it's irresponsible of him to liberally dispense this kind of advice, especially to market novices.

Traders who have been around the block a couple of times, know the importance of keeping the losses small, and letting the profits run until a favorite indicator, which ever-one works for you ,mandates that you end the trade. I have found that Adam and the marketclub trading philosophy is simple and honest, and it works......keep up the good work guys !!!

Frank

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We appreciate your comment's Frank. We encourage all readers of this blog to post comments on the market.