FOREX-Dollar rises vs yen as trading volume thins



By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, Dec 18 (Reuters) - The dollar gained on the yen on Tuesday as traders covered their bets against the greenback and began taking profits ahead of year end.

Volumes were thin as investors began closing the books on 2007, leading to jittery trading influenced heavily by technical factors and flows, traders said.

The European Central Bank's extension of $500 billion in two-week loans to euro-zone banks also helped ease anxiety about a year-end credit squeeze, traders said, prompting some investors to wade back into yen-funded carry trades.

"The ECB provided a bit of systematic relief, and that's led to some renewal of risk-taking activity," said Robert Fullem, vice president of corporate foreign exchange sales at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ in New York.

"But it is a very thin market out there, and the few orders that are out there are keeping currencies in ranges," he said.

Investors have long borrowed yen at low Japanese rates to fund purchases of higher-yielding currencies and assets. As a result, the yen's fortunes wax and wane in inverse proportion to market risk appetite.

Late afternoon, the dollar was up half a percent at 113.38 yen

The euro traded at $1.4403

Analysts said the ECB's massive injection bolstered the argument of dollar strength against the euro into year end.

"There is talk that some foreign banks (e.g. U.S. and UK) may have taken in funds as well and at lower rates than they can secure from their respective markets," wrote Win Thin, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, in a note to clients.

"This may lead to some euro sales as the borrowings are converted and/or hedged. The foreign exchange implications of these money market operations are on the margin, but maybe part of the firmer dollar story that many will overlook," he said.

Investors are also awaiting Wednesday's results of this week's liquidity injection plans by top central banks.

The dollar has benefited over the past week from unexpectedly strong U.S. retail sales and inflation data, which fanned speculation that the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in cutting interest rates next year.

However, the latest Reuters poll still shows a 40 percent chance of a U.S. recession next year.

The Fed is expected to cut its benchmark overnight lending rate twice by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent in the first half of 2008 and leave monetary policy unchanged for the rest of the year, the poll showed. For details, see .

Adam Hewison, president of INO.com, an information service for traders in Shady Side, Maryland, said the dollar looks poised to continue rallying in early 2008 after falling sharply against most major currencies this year.

"We have seen a fairly healthy correction here. I think we're going to see much more two-way trading in the first and second quarters of 2008," he said.

If interest rates stabilize, he said traders will be pushed to cover dollar shorts, setting the euro up for a test of $1.40 and sending the dollar back into the 118-120 yen range in the first half of the year.

"Bears often make the best bulls and they will have to cover their short positions sometime," he said.



Steven C. Johnson reports for Reuters

(Additional reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

*Reuters is a registered trademark and belongs to Reuters

Record high Profits for Goldman Sachs ... here's how they did it

Dear Trader,

It's no secret markets go up and they go down. If you weren't trading many of the stocks on the short side in '07 you missed out on some stellar trades.

Here's where Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) made a ton of money.

"Goldman, which reaped a third-quarter profit by taking a ``short'' position on mortgages" This according to Bloomberg.

One thing that help Goldman was the removal of the "uptick rule".

Shorting stocks is a valuable tool you need to put in your arsenal of trading for '08. We expect to see a great deal more "Shorting" opportunities in the new year.


Adam Hewison

Here's a stock we want to short ...

Riverbed Tech Inc on the NASDAQ

The stock we are discussing today is Riverbed Tech Inc, trading under the symbol RVBD on the NASDAQ Exchange. We have been negative on this stock for sometime and feel it still has further to go on the downside.

The market action on Monday the 17th of December can only be described as extremely negative.

Unlike most recommendation that always seem to want to buy stocks we want to short this stock looking for it to still move lower in the future.

With the removal of the uptick rule on July 6th of 2007 it now allows traders to short a stock without having to wait for an "uptick". This is great for traders as it evens the playing field between buying and shorting securities.


Here's a trading idea for Riverbed:


* Short Riverbed over $25.00.
* Use a stop at 28.12 to protect capital or a stop that fits your trading.
* First target zone 19.05.
* Take half of your profits at 19.05 and let the balance ride.
* Longer term target zone is in the single digits.

Every success if you take this trade.



Adam Hewison
is President of INO.com

We cannot endorse or guarantee any trade. This trade is for educationa purposes only and shows how professional traders view the markets.

Here's your seventh lesson


Good Monday AM to everyone! I hope everyone's weekend went very well and all Christmas shopping

is done or at least 50% done!

Here's your seventh lesson in "The Secrets Of
Professional Floor Traders" mini email course.

Lesson 7 - "The Relative Strength Index"
by Adam Hewison
===============================================

One of the most useful tools employed by many technical
traders is a momentum oscillator which measures the
velocity of directional price movement.

One of the biggest advantages of using this indicator
is spotting divergences.

A divergence between price action and the RSI is a very
strong indicator of a market turning point and is the
single most indicative characteristic of the Relative
Strength Index.

Because this lesson contains charts, it has been posted
here.

"The Relative Strength Index"

Have a great trading week and...

MERRY CHRISTMAS!

P.S. Look out for the next lesson - "Stochastics".
Even if you have never heard that word before don't
miss this lesson.

Thoughts & Trading Ideas for the Weekend


There a just a few more shopping days left before Christmas, but the silly season for trading is happening right now!

Last week we talked about the silly season for trading, and what it's indications are for the trader. We do not recommend serious traders taking positions in the last two weeks of the year. These are thin, illiquid markets, that are going to have large swings on very little volume. We recommend using the balance of the year to reflect on this past years trading and prepare oneself for the new trading year.

There will be some amazing trading opportunities in '08, both on the long side, and on the short side of the market. We expect energy prices to play a dominant role in the new year. This is a market you should get to know and be very conversant with. We expect oil prices will offer up some big profits in 2008. If you have not seen our new 90 second crude oil video, I highly recommend that you take a minute and a half of your time to watch this online video. You will see just how we look at crude oil, and how you can capture some big profits in '08 using our trade "triangle technology".

So what do we do with the markets for a balance of the year? The smart thing to do is to sit on the sidelines and do nothing. Most traders have made their money earlier in the year and have taken their profits. This is not the time to be looking to make fast money in the last two weeks all the year.

So how do we see the U.S.economy in 2008? Is it a time of inflation or a time recession? We still feel like this Sub-Prime mess with the CDO (collateralized debt obligations) and SIVs (structured investment vehicles) along with the soft housing market, is going to create problems for the economy in 2008.

We also see the FED and Ben Bernanke as impotent and pretty powerless in making any lasting change.We are all paying the price of interest rates that were artificially too low for too long in the 2002-2003 period.

So lets look at the markets (remember this is like flipping a coin for the next two weeks)

Gold remains the trading range and choppy.

Stocks look toppy and choppy and stuck in a broad trading range.

Crude Oil looks to be in the trading range.

The market in general are best left alone for the balance of the year. Enjoy the holidays forget the markets for two weeks.

Speaking of the markets ...

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----------------------
SOMETHING TO REMEMBER
If Santa Claus Should Fail to Call, Bears May Come to Broad & Wall. [Trader's myth that if we don't see a "Santa Claus rally" in December, the market will decline in the coming year.]
----------------------
NEW POLL "DO YOU SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT'S NEW SUBPRIME BAILOUT
----------------------
Sorry, we didn't mean for it to sound like a bailout. But hey, you know what, if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it is a duck, right?

Nows your chance to be heard. Vote in our new poll and lets see how the duck quacks.
----------------------
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TIME TO LAUGH
A very successful stockbroker parked his brand-new Mercedes in front of his office, ready to show it off to his colleagues. As he got out, a truck passed too close and tore off the door on the driver's side. The stockbroker immediately grabbed his cell phone, dialed 911, and within minutes a policeman pulled up. Before the officer had a chance to ask any questions, the stockbroker started screaming hysterically. His Mercedes, which he had just picked up the day before, was now completely ruined. When the stockbroker finally wound down from his ranting and raving, the officer shook his head in disgust and disbelief. "I can not believe how materialistic you stock brokers are," the cop said. "You are so focused on your possessions that you don't notice anything else." "How can you say such a thing?" asked the stockbroker. The cop replied, "Don't you know that your left arm is missing from the elbow down? It must have been torn off when the truck hit you." "My God!" screamed the stockbroker. "My Rolex!"
----------------------
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LEARN HOW TO TRADE FOREX IN 90 SECONDS.

Is it possible to learn how to trade forex in just 90 seconds???

The answer is a resounding yes.

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----------------------
LEARN & EARN
Developing a Premium Portfolio

In this video lesson series I will dive into three major topics
that will help you create a portfolio that you can be proud of,
and profitable in!

Part one covers Diversification within your portfolio. Diversity
is the one thing that ALL successful traders' portfolios have
in common. Developing a diverse and profitable portfolio is
not as hard as it seems!

Watch the free streaming video lesson here

Symbols covered: Bear Stearns (NYSE_BSC),
Ford Motor Company (NYSE_F), Soybean Oil (BO.H08),
Crude Oil (CL.Z07).
----------------------
FOUR FREE ONLINE TRADING VIDEOS YOU CAN BENEFIT FROM TODAY
Here's a small sample of what is coming up on INO TV
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----------------------
CHECK ON THE WORLD MARKETS 24 HOURS A DAY

Don't miss any of the global overnight action.
----------------------
This is Adam Hewison,


have a great weekend and a profitable new trading week.
----------------------