Chairman Bernanke let's go shopping

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Open invitation to the FED Chairman Bernanke and to all Fed governors to go shopping

Dear Chairman Bernanke,

Let's go shopping.

I invite you and your entire committee to come shopping with me for groceries in any local supermarket you like. Oh, before we do that let's stop at a filling station and buy some gas.

You know what gas is, right? Well that's the stuff the goes in your car's gas tank, that's what gets most Americans to work.

I am not sure if you, or any of your committee have at anytime in the past year purchased a gallon of milk, a gallon of gas, or any groceries to put on the table. But, if you haven't, then its time we went shopping together.

You see Mr. Bernanke, I along with three hundred million other hard working Americans are having a hard time understanding why you keep saying that inflation is under control.

We just don't understand where you get your numbers from? You see we are the regular folks who get paychecks, shop at the local stores and supermarkets and fill up our tanks at the local filling station.

We just don't understand where you go to get your groceries or buy your gas. That is why I want to invite you and your entire committee to come shopping.

I know you are busy, so if my invitation doesn't work for you, perhaps you could let me in on the secret store and filling station where you and the Fed governors shop and buy gas.

Thanks.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Sincerely,

Adam Hewison

INO.com vs Hugo Chavez, OPEC and Crude Oil

Posted on by The INO.com Team
See what Adam has to say about Hugo Chavez,
OPEC and the Crude Oil live on CNBC

Watch Video Crude Oil

Regan: Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez said today that the empire of the dollar is crashing. Well, he and the Iranian president proposed over the weekend that OPEC price oil against a basket of currencies rather than the dollar. So we're asking today, “Is OPEC more of a threat now then it has ever been in the past?” Well, to answer this one we want to bring in Adam Hewison, technical analyst of INO.com, CNBC's very own Sharon Epperson, and today's guest contributor, Vince Farrel.

Welcome to all of you. Adam, so what do you think? Should we be paying more attention to OPEC then we have in the past?

Hewison: Well this has got all the earmarks of Chavez. He's not our friend, and we have to accept that. He's using a barrel of oil as an economic weapon towards the US, that's the first point. The second point has got to be the sides aren't going to go along with it. They're not going to divest themselves of the US dollar. They've been with the US for a long time, they will continue to be with us. And, the third point is demand. We use 25% of the world's oil here in the US and we represent 5% of the population. That's not going away.

Regan: So it's an opportunity then, do you think Vince for Chavez and for Ahmadinejad to kind of gang up together against a common enemy and spout off a lot of rhetoric?

Farrel: Would you if you were another member of OPEC put your trust in these guys? I think the answer is no. I think Adam is dead right on all the points he just made, and secondly I think Venezuela's oil output is going to disappear. This guy Chavez is a nut, it's going to disappear off the world market because you need to reinvest mightily, especially down there in the Orinoco Belt which is heavy oil. Costs a lot to get out, and even more to refine. And their draining every penny out of PDVSA for his social program and putting nothing back in. And, sooner or later that's going to dry up and he's going to disappear with the sands of time.

Regan: He's certainly made life pretty tough for any American oil company trying to do anything down there in the Orinoco region, and trying to actually process this stuff and make it into oil that one can actually use.

Epperson: Well that's absolutely right Trish. And also the traders here are very concerned about if that could happen. There seems to be a lot of discourse between OPEC over this and whether or not in terms of pricing against another basket of currencies whether or not to even discuss it.

Of course there is going to be a special committee meeting about this. The issue is if it happens, they by chance were to decouple from the dollar, the acceleration of the decline of oil prices would be so great that they would be ever more of a problem then what their facing now with the falling dollar as it stands right now. It's really between a rock and a hard place here because of course OPEC members are losing money with the dollar falling.

Hewison: The price of oil going up is far greater than the decline of the dollar here, so I don't think that's necessarily the thing. You just have to look at, well two great concerns I have... one is the cold spell that's going to hit the North-East (US). I noticed it was snowing in New York today. We're going to have a very colder than normal first quarter of '08, and also demand. We've got to cut back on demand, which means we're probably going to have to build cars that get 50 mpg as opposed to 20 mpg.


Regan: Interestingly Adam, Mr. Shavez said oil could actually go to $200. I remember at OPEC in Venezuela when he said it might hit $100/barrel. It was considered a rather crazy thought back then, $200 certainly seems rather crazy right now, but...

Hewison: He's a great bluffer too, we have to understand that.

Regan: With that said I mean we are looking at it near $100 right now. What do you think the upward trend possibilities are for oil?

Hewison: Well, the great concern I have in the Middle East... Saudi has the greatest amount of oil in the world, period. That all has to come through the Straits of Hormuz. If there's a problem in the Straits of Hormuz, this is all in a volatile area. No one can predict; it's been volatile for the last 20 years, it's going to be volatile for the next 20 years. I have real concerns about the Straits of Hormuz possibly being blocked, and it can be blocked with the size of tankers they have now. So that would shoot prices up to $200 quite easily. So, Mr. Chavez may be right in that regard, but if nothing happens we should go sideways to maybe... uh. We will see $100 print on the tape with oil. There's do doubt in my mind.

Regan: When, when?

Hewison: I think in Q1 of '08.

Regan: Ok, we've got you on record.

Did A 300 Year Old Discovery Torpedo Google?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

On November 8th Google (symbol goog) had it sharpest one day point move for the year, as it dropped over 37 dollars for a stunning 5% loss for the day. Many Google traders were shocked at the severity of the down move. The move which was like a tidal wave of selling pressure triggered two key technical indicators to turn negative for the first time since August 23rd. This ended what had been an amazing bull run for Google and the two other titans of tech, Apple (aapl) and Research in Motion (symbol rimm). It also proved that gravity, discovered 3 centuries ago by a mathematician and physicist Sir Isaac Newton was alive and well.

Many traders were simply stunned by Google's market action as it led the tech sector meltdown. Here was one of its shining stars caught in a downdraft that seriously damaged it's stock price and the psyche of many traders.

Chart Courtesy of MarketClub.com

The first chink in Google's invincibility was now in place a the stock plunged over 14% in just three days!! How could this happen? Wasn't this Google, the darling of the tech world, the one stock that always goes up? It was never supposed to go down, was it?


Now for the good news. Could the precipitous drop in Google's stock have been predicted? The answer to that question, is yes and no.

Technical analysis is enormously important when measuring market sentiment and judging on how hot a market is running. Google's move below its Parabolic Support line on 11/08 was the first indication since August 23rd when this indicator turn positive that Google was in trouble. A day later on November 9th, Google crashed below its Moving Average Convergence Divergence line (MACD) this also added to Google's downward spiral. These two indicators that are widely available in most commercial charting package and well as our own MarketClub.com confirmed that the down move in Google was for real.

While Google appears to have put in a top at $747.24 on the November 7th it remains to be seen if this is major top. Our gut feel, is that this is an important top but we have no confirmation that this is a major top for this stock. We expect that Google will have to do a great deal more backing and filling south of the $700 level and enter into more of a two way market in the short term.

As for me, I will be watching both the Parabolic and the MACD indicators to see where this market bottoms out.

Adam Hewison

Dollar mixed on uncertaintly over credit woes

Posted on by lindsay


By Kevin Plumberg, Reuters

NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the euro but slipped against the yen on Thursday as fears about the credit crunch's impact and falling equity markets led investors to pare back on profitable but extended trades.


Uncertainty about the extend of the damages from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis continued to pervade markets. Standard & Poor's cut it's long-term rating on Bear Stearns Cos as the company prepared to report its first-ever quarterly loss, while General Electric Co said on Wednesday its short-term bond fund had run into trouble and all its outside investors have liquidated their holdings.

Continued nervousness about the environment for lending has caused some dealers to trim their bets against the dollar and to reduce yen carry trades, in which the low-yielding Japanese currency is borrowed to fund purchases of higher-yielding ones.

"Risk aversion remains the guiding principle in foreign exchange markets today, with further financial-sector write-downs negatively impacting stock market performance," said Michael Wollfold, senior currency strategist with The Bank of New York Mellon.

"Declines in equity prices are keeping yen carry trades sidelined, with the greenback on the receiving end of a mild safe-haven bid," Woolfolk said in a note.

The dollar was down 0.5 percent on the day at 110.80 yen, within sight of 18-month lows of 109.10 yen set earlier this week.

The euro was down 0.2 percent at $1.430, more than a cent from a record high of $1.4752 hit last week, according to Reuters data.

"If we see the market take the euro below $1.45, then the euro will drift to the $1.43-to-$1.42 range," said Adam Hewison, president of INO.com in Shady Side, Maryland. "Overall, the market looks like it's overdone on dollar selling."

Against the yen, the euro was down 0.7 percent at 163.13 yen.

The high-yielding Australian dollar fell 0.5 percent against the greenback and the New Zealand dollar fell 0.7 percent to US$0.8920 and US$0.7585, respectively. Sterling fell to a three-week low against the dollar, hit by an unexpected fall in retail sales data. The pound fell 0.3 percent to $2.0465.

A currency dealer with a Dutch bank said many other traders are watching the pound continue to drop sharply from 26-year highs above $2.1100 reached last week, and getting nervous about locking in profits before the end of the year.

High-yielders like sterling and the New Zealand and Australian currencies could see further losses as a result of hedge fund withdrawals, according to some analysts.

Investors have to give 45 days' notice if they want to withdraw cash from hedge funds, meaning that those who want to close their positions by year-end have to say so now.

"Clients may take some money off the table as was the case in Q3 when Aug. 15 was marked with massive selling across all equity indices," said Ashraf Laidi, chief FX analyst at CMC Markets U.S. "In this case, we expect renewed rallies in the yen crosses and for the Aussie, kiwi and loonie to come under pressure."

Kevin Plumberg reports for Reuters from New York

*Reuters is a registered trademark and belongs to Reuters

Apple, Google, Research in Motion, expect more of everything ...

Posted on by The INO.com Team


Thoughts and Trading Ideas for the Weekend

With all the market volatility just lately, traders seem to be rearranging the deck chairs for something big.

Have you noticed lately how all the market action seems to to take place in last 30 minutes of trading? Well there's a reason for that, and here it is.

When I was trading on the floors of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange almost every floor trader knew how the day traders were positioned. If the day traders were short and the market wasn't going down like they had expected, the pit traders instinctively knew that they would have to cover before the end of the day.

There's an old adage on Wall Street that bears make the best bulls, and bulls make the best bears. What this means is, if you are short a market and you are a day trader you have to buy back your position before the close, win, lose or draw. Many day traders wait to the very end of the day, hoping that they are going to be right. If they are wrong they are forced to scramble to cover their positions in the closing minutes before the final bell.

It's all part of the ebb and flow of the marketplace.

Speaking of the marketplace ...

----------------------
APPLE, GOOGLE, RESEARCH IN MOTION
Here's how we see these three Titan's of Tech.
Watch our Apple analysis video (symbol AAPL) Chart
Watch our Google analysis video (symbol GOOG) Chart
Watch our Research in Motion analysis video (symbol RIMM) Chart

----------------------
WHEN TO FIB AND NOT TO FIB
See what we are talking about right here.

----------------------

Shocker ... the FED just said that they may not cut rates because of inflation worries. Hallelujah, they get it, they finally get it. I guess chairman Bernanke finally stopped in at a Safeway supermarket and realized that the cost of food for all Americans has jumped dramatically this year. Or maybe, he actually went to a gas station and filled his tank and said to himself, "Oh, Oh, these gas prices are high"

Maybe this energy jump is for real, Mr. Bernanke.
----------------------
LEARN HOW TO TRADE A DOWNWARD TRENDING MARKET
In this video lesson, we give traders three compelling pieces of information about how to trade a downward trending market. Watch this streaming video lesson to learn about shorting stocks.

----------------------
A LIGHT HEARTED LOOK AT THE MARKETS...
This will put a smile on your face

----------------------
SOMETHING TO REMEMBER
"They slide faster than they glide"

----------------------
WHICH WAY FOR THE MARKETS NOW?
Use this really cool analysis tool and get instant answers in plain English on any market. There is no cost. Watch it here.

----------------------
THE VOTES ARE IN ON $100 CRUDE OIL
Here's the question "Will Crude Oil Trade at $100 before the end of December?" As of this writing 488 votes are in. See the results here as to how traders are looking at the new black gold. No registration required. Vote and find the results on the upper right hand side of this page.

----------------------
INO QUOTED IN THE NEWS THIS WEEK

"If we see the market take the euro below $1.45, then the euro will drift to the $1.43-to-$1.42 range," said Adam Hewison, president of INO.com in Shady Side, Maryland. "Overall, the market looks like it's overdone on dollar selling."

"Even if demand here were to fall 5 percent, we would still see global growth because of what's happening in India and China," said Adam Hewison, president of INO.com, an Annapolis, Maryland-based Web site that provides technical analysis and financial news.

Reuters and Bloomberg hold the repective trade marks on the images shown on this blog.
----------------------
ON THE TRADERS BLOG THIS WEEK
----------------------

The Jingling This Holiday Season Won't Be Extra Change In Your Pockets!

----------------------
MARKET THOUGHTS FOR TUESDAY
Sub-Prime, submarines, and the fear of the unknown
Why E-Trade tanked.

----------------------

"The Secrets Of Professional Floor Traders" "Trending with Moving Averages"

----------------------
IS THE BULL RUN OVER FOR GOOGLE?
After reaching a record high of $747.24 on an intraday basis on November 11th Google proved that gravity does indeed exist as its stock plunged over $120 in just 4 trading days!!

Find out what's going on in Google right now.

----------------------
FREE ONLINE TRADING VIDEOS YOU CAN BENEFIT FROM TODAY
Here's a small sample of what is coming up on INO TV

----------------------
ONE MARKET, ONE WORLD FIND IT ALL ON INO.COM
Don't miss any of the overnight action from around the world on INO.com.

----------------------
WHICH WAY FOR THE MARKETS NOW?
Use this really cool analysis tool and get instant answers in plain English on any market. There is no cost.

----------------------
PRO'S DON'T FIGHT THE TAPE
The markets will tell us when they are ready to go higher.

----------------------
This is Adam Hewison,


have a great weekend and a profitable new trading week.
_____________________________________________________________________