U.S. Crude Production In January Displays A Seasonal Lull

The Energy Information Administration reported that January crude oil production averaged 11.871 million barrels per day (mmbd), down 90,000 b/d from December. Despite the drop in January, crude production still rose by a spectacular 1.407 mmbd from June through January, a period when capacity takeaway constraints had been expected to slow down the growth in Texas.

crude production

The year-over-year gains have been especially impressive with the January figure being 1.876 mmbd. And this number only includes crude oil. Other supplies (liquids) that are part of the petroleum supply add to that. For January, that additional gain is about 6,950 b/d. Continue reading "U.S. Crude Production In January Displays A Seasonal Lull"

Crude Oil Hits The Target Early

Back in February, I wondered: “How Far Could Crude Oil Go?” As this commodity confirmed the upside reversal breaking above $54.6. We are still living in a “PetroWorld” therefore the price of oil is crucial, and it impacts all of us around the globe. So, we should watch it carefully.

I spotted a structural similarity on the weekly chart, which was cloned and applied to the current pullback of oil price on the lower time frame daily chart. The price target was set at the $63.7 and the time goal was set on the 6th of May, 2019.

Before we move on to the updated daily chart, I would like to show you the results of your ballot on this topic.

oil price

I can’t express all my gratitude for your voting activity and support of my experiments. The results in the diagram above show that you also saw the area above $60 as a target for the current pullback. It is yet early to say if the price has topped already, but our initial target was achieved and even was passed over ahead of time.

In another ballot, you voted for the instruments you liked the most. Continue reading "Crude Oil Hits The Target Early"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the June contract is currently trading at 1,295 an ounce unchanged for the trading week as the trend remains sideways. If you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop loss under major support which now stands at 1,284 as an exit strategy as I still have a bullish bias towards gold, but the risk/reward is not in your favor to take a position at this time. Gold prices are trading slightly under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is lower to mixed as prices have gone nowhere over the last three months. Volatility remains average as prices topped out last month slightly above the 1,350 level as I still think longer-term gold prices look attractive. However, all the interest remains in the U.S. equity market which is hovering right near all-time highs once again. For the bullish momentum to continue prices have to break the March 25th high of 1,330 in my opinion so be patient and let's see what next week's trade brings as I do believe bullish trends across the board will start to develop soon.
TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Disney - Avengers: Endgame, Streaming, and Fox

Disney (DIS) is looking to continue off of Captain Marvel’s success with Avengers: Endgame debuting April 26th, 2019. Captain Marvel has already brought in more $1 billion in worldwide box office revenue and leading all 2019 movies by a wide margin. Disney is betting huge on Avengers: Endgame taking the torch to the $2 billion box office milestone, a feat that’s only been accomplished four times, one of them being Avengers: Infinity War last year with $2.05 billion. All the initiatives that Disney has taken over the previous two years to restore growth appear to be coming to fruition, namely its Fox (FOX) acquisition and it's streaming initiatives. The Fox acquisition is complete for the combined entity; thus Fox’s assets are now definitively being absorbed by Disney. Disney continues to invest heavily into its streaming services such as Hulu, ESPN Plus and it's soon to be released Disney branded streaming service that will directly compete with Netflix (NFLX). The Fox acquisition brings a majority stake in Hulu (60% ownership) while its ESPN Plus launched earlier this year and has over 2 million subscribers. Disney continues to dominate at the box office while posting great growth at its theme parks translating into robust and durable revenue streams. The company is evolving to meet the new age of media consumption demands of the consumer via streaming and on-demand content. Disney has been on an uptrend as of late, breaking through the $115 relative to an all-time of ~$120. I’ve been behind Disney for a long time, especially through this transition back to growth and I still feel that the company offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity given its growth catalysts that will continue to bear fruit over the coming years. Goldman Sachs recently championed Disney’s reinvention efforts and boosted its target price to $142, a 20% increase from the $115 current share price.

Goldman Sachs Backs Fox Acquisition and Future

Goldman Sachs has changed its view on Disney after the investment bank removed Disney from its buy recommendation in December of 2017. Now Goldman Sachs has come out to back Disney and labeled the stock as a buy. It's "the dawn of a new era" after the company bought the media assets of Twenty-First Century Fox, the acquisition which Goldman advised. Now the impending launch of Disney Plus marks a "momentous" shift in content monetization, though investors will need to be patient with some heavy lifting around the launch, suggests Drew Borst. Continue reading "Disney - Avengers: Endgame, Streaming, and Fox"

Big Banks Boost Stock Market

Hello traders everywhere. Earnings season started with a bang early Friday as two major U.S. banks shared better than expected Q1 results which propelled the market higher at the open. The S&P 500 pushed above $2,900 for the first time since October of 2018, the DOW up over 290 pts in early trading and is trying to post a weekly gain after being quiet for much of the week and the NASDAQ continues to march higher gaining +.47% on the week making this three straight weeks of gains.

JPMorgan Chase earned $2.65 a share in the first quarter, easily beating third-party consensus estimates of $2.35. Revenue—which many analysts had expected to decline—rose 5% to $29.9 billion as the company appeared to benefit from higher interest rates and strength in consumer banking. Shares rose more than 2.5% in pre-market trading.

Wells Fargo was the other big bank reporting early Friday, and its results also topped third-party consensus. Earnings per share of $1.20 beat the average estimate of $1.10, while revenue of $21.6 billion out-performed the average estimate of $20.99 billion. Shares climbed about 2% right after the company released results.

post a weekly gain

The U.S. dollar retreated as the week ended with investors dumping haven assets turning to riskier assets like stocks after a strong round of earnings releases. The dollar will post a weekly loss of -.48% Continue reading "Big Banks Boost Stock Market"