Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,258 an ounce after settling last Friday at 1,254 up slightly for the week still right near a 7-month low as the precious metals, in my opinion, remain very weak. As I've written about in previous blogs, I have a bearish bias towards gold prices, and I still think 1,200 is a realistic level that we could be trading at in the coming weeks. The Trump tariff situation has been established today which has been one of the main reasons why we have seen weaker commodity prices across the board over the last several weeks. Gold prices are trading far under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside as demand for this precious metals is weak at the current time as silver, copper, & platinum all remain bearish trading near contract lows once again this week. As I have talked about previously, all of the interest still lies in the U.S. equity market which is slightly higher in today's trade as the U.S. employment number was very impressive. We added 213,000 jobs as money continue to flow out of gold and into the stock market, and I don't see that trend ending any time soon. If you are short a futures contract place the stop loss at the 10-day high standing at 1,274 as an exit strategy as the chart structure will also improve in next week's trade, therefore, the monetary risk will also be lowered so stay short if you already have a bearish position.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY:INCREASING

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Disney Continues To Deliver

Disney continues to deliver at the box office and theme parks, yet its stock price has been stubbornly stuck in a tight trading range of $98-$110. The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) can’t seem to break out despite breaking record after record at the box office and throughout its theme parks thus far in 2018. Disney’s brands are ubiquitous and providing long-lasting, durable revenue streams that transcend theme parks, toys, merchandise, streaming initiatives and international reach. Disney’s Marvel franchise posted back-to-back record-shattering $200-plus million weekend openings at the box office for Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War. Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War became the third and fourth highest grossing movies of all-time domestically, respectively. Avengers: Infinity War broke through the $2 billion thresholds at the worldwide box office becoming the fourth movie to achieve that feat. If that wasn’t impressive enough, The Incredibles 2 shattered box office records during its opening weekend debut, not only shattering the previous opening weekend record for an animated film but finishing with one of the top ten openings of all-time for a film of any genre. Ant-Man and The Wasp hit theaters as the third Marvel movie thus far in 2018 and is expected to deliver very strong numbers as an ancillary Marvel film during its opening weekend.

Meanwhile Disney's Parks and Resorts are posting strong growth while shoring up its stalling Media Networks segment with a confluence of growth catalysts via streaming with Hulu (30% stake and will likely be expanded to a majority 60% stake after the Fox acquisition), BAMTech, Sling, ESPN streaming service and a Disney branded service coming in 2019 to directly compete with Netflix (NFLX). Disney is closing the gap in streaming as Hulu grows much more rapidly than Netflix and in the backdrop, ESPN and direct to consumer Disney branded streaming service comes to fruition. Disney recently reported Q2 FY2018 revenue growth across every business segment with an overall revenue growth of 9%. Disney offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity considering the growth, Fox acquisition, pipeline, Media Networks remediation plan, diversity of its portfolio, tax reform, share repurchase program and dividend growth. Continue reading "Disney Continues To Deliver"

Stress Test Success and Rising Interest Rates

For traders and investors, the political climate has been unlike anything we have ever seen in recent times!

There are plenty of opportunities if you know where to look. I will help to bridge the gap between Washington and Wall Street, finding you the best stock plays being driven by politics.

  • The Federal Reserve increased its short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point and stated that economic growth has been “rising at a solid rate.”
  • The Federal Reserve indicated that two more rate hikes are likely in 2018 followed by three in 2019
  • A consortium of domestic banks passed the Federal Reserve’s stress test that was more rigorous than last year’s criteria
  • The banks are well capitalized and positioned to withstand severe economic conditions under high unemployment, housing depreciation, and credit defaults
  • Banks are in a position to release largess to shareholders via an increase in dividend payouts, share buybacks, and more unobstructed risk appropriate growth
  • Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) received approval for their capital return plans while Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) received conditional approval

Rising Interest Rates:

Back in March, the Federal Reserve expected the economy to continue to strengthen and inflation to rise shortly. The economic strength coupled with inflation telegraphed an environment that was ripe for more interest rate increases over the near term. This economic backdrop has gained momentum, and the Federal Reserve recently increased interest rates by a quarter percentage point and indicated that two more increases are highly likely in 2018 for a total of four this year. The consensus from the committee was perceived as very bullish on the domestic front and that the Federal Reserve will continue on its path of rising interest rates along with higher inflation expectations. In March, the committee stated that “tax changes enacted late last year and the recent federal budget agreement, taken together, were expected to provide a significant boost to output over the next few years” and more recently economic growth has been “rising at a solid rate,” unemployment has “declined” and household spending “has picked up.” The committee sees economic growth hitting 2.8 percent for the full year followed by 2.4 percent in 2019. The committee also indicated it continues to expect three more rate hikes in 2019. "The committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with the sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions and inflation near the committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term." Provided this backdrop of positive economic commentary, financials such as Goldman Sachs (GS), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) are poised to benefit as a result. Continue reading "Stress Test Success and Rising Interest Rates"

Molson Coors Eyeing Canadian Cannabis Partner

Analysis originally distributed on June 28, 2018 By: Michael Vodicka of Cannabis Stock Trades

October 30, 2017 was one of the best days of the year for the young cannabis industry.

That’s the date when Constellation Brands (STZ), the second-largest US beer maker, announced a 10% stake in Canopy Growth Corp. (CGC/WEED), the largest Canadian cannabis company.

It was a groundbreaking moment for the cannabis industry because it was the first time that a big alcohol company had invested directly in a cannabis company.

Not only did it give the young cannabis industry tons of credibility, it also sets the stage for big alcohol to invest billions into the cannabis industry in the next few years.

In the short run, Canopy shares jumped more than 23% in one day on the news.

In the long run, it triggered a 10-week rally in Canopy – and the entire cannabis sector – that sent shares deep into a new all-time high. Take a look. Continue reading "Molson Coors Eyeing Canadian Cannabis Partner"