If you're among the vanishing minority of people who still think the Federal Reserve is going to start raising interest rates in June, the latest reports on the U.S. economy and events in Europe and China should disabuse you of that farfetched notion.
The proportion of economists predicting the Fed will wait until September to raise rates rose to 70% in an April 3-9 survey, more than double the figure from the previous month. That ratio has likely gotten even wider following the news of the past week, although I think it will be well after September before the Fed starts "normalizing" monetary policy.
Let's look at the U.S. economy first, where indicators continue to come in soft. Continue reading "Fed Has Plenty of Excuses Not To Do Anything Soon"