"Saturday Seminars" - Trading on Expectations: Pinpointing Trading Ranges, Trends & Reversals

One of the most important factors affecting the market’s supply-and-demand equation (i.e., selling and buying transactions in the market) is the expectations of the participants — expectations about where prices are headed, fundamental reports and the market’s response to news releases.

The Federal Reserve Board recently adopted an expectations model of the markets for economic forecasting, and now you can apply the same approach to your trading. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in 1997, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan described the expectations model this way: “Participants in the financial markets are susceptible to waves of optimism. Excessive optimism sows the seed of its own reversal. When unwarranted expectations are ultimately not realized, the unwinding of these excesses can act to amplify a downturn, much the way they can amplify the upswing.” This session teaches you how to identify and take advantage of these waves (trends) of optimism and pessimism and their reversals. You will also learn how Brendan combines elements of the economic science used in the Chicago Board of Trade’s Market Profile and the Nobel Prize-winning theories of expectations (as expressed in sentiment surveys) to develop a method for analyzing and trading the futures markets.

Brendan Moynihan, a foreign exchange trader at First American National Bank (now AmSouth) in Nashville, Tennessee. During his ten-year career in the investment business, he has been a bond market and currency market analyst, a commodity trader and a cash government bond trader. He has also been a hedging and trading consultant for banks and brokerage firms.


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