What do you think will happen first: The Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates, or the Cubs win the World Series for the first time since 1908?
Richard Lehmann, writing in his Fixed–Income Watch column in the recent issue of Forbes magazine, says the odds are about the same. Lehmann expects the Fed to keep short-term rates pretty much where they are – i.e. at or near zero – for some time to come. "The Fed talks a good line and promises to act responsibly once employment and the economy improve or the threat of deflation disappears," he writes. "But that's kind of like waiting for the Chicago Cubs to win the World Series again."
Actually though, the chances of the Cubs winning the World Series soon don't look so far-fetched. Now under Theo Epstein, the principal architect of the 2004 World Champion Red Sox that broke the 86-year old Curse of the Bambino, the Cubs have put together a solid team of talented young players and added former Tampa Bay Rays manager, Joe Madden, as their skipper during the off-season. Now they've also reportedly signed free agent pitcher, Jon Lester. Las Vegas currently has the Cubs at about 14 to 1 odds to win the 2015 Series, one of the top eight or so teams in baseball.
Can we say the same thing about the Fed raising rates soon?
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