Tag: market commentary

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

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Six months ago, stocks made fresh lows of 3,491. Since then, we have seen a hefty bounce to our current `perch at 4,137.

So are we in still in a bear market…or has the new bull emerged?

That vital discussion, along with our trading plan with top picks, will be at the heart today’s commentary.

Market Commentary

Technically speaking we are still in a bear market. That is because the definition of a new bull market is when the S&P 500 (SPY) rises 20% from the lows. Here is that math:

3,491 October Lows x 20% = 4,189

However, some will say that was only an intraday low and more appropriate to measure based upon the closing low of 3,577 set on October 12. That would mean stocks would need to break above 4,292 to be considered in bullish territory.

The point is that we are getting closer to a bullish breakout. Yet where we stand at this precise moment is a state of limbo which is what creates a trading range.

One could say it’s as wide as the recent lows of 3,855 up to 4,200. But I think most of the near future will be spent in a tighter range of 4,000 to 4,200.

Continue reading "Bull or Bear or Neither?" →

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

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By far the most popular article I have written in years was from last week because it crystalized what so many of us are feeling. Here it is again:

The WORST Stock Market Ever!

Unfortunately, everything said then is just as true now. That being that the only trend is NO trend. And that is true even after a few solid days in the plus column.

Gladly, we can add a few key updates to help us plot our trading plan for the days ahead. That is what is in store in this week’s commentary below…

Market Commentary

Let’s start with a helpful analogy that will frame our discussion today. And that is to appreciate that the stock market is quite similar to a helium balloon.

Meaning that its natural state is to float higher unless it is being held down by a stronger, negative force that pushes it lower.

Please read that again so it sinks in.

Now if we pull back to the big picture, we can easily appreciate that state of floating higher is true because 85-90% of investment history is framed by bullish conditions where going up is more likely than going down. However, we find this picture to also to be the case during bear markets when negative events are removed.

Consider the start of the year…how the market climbed day by day in January. Perhaps it was because there was really nothing negative to hold stocks down. Continue reading "When Will The Balloon Pop Again?" →

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

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I woke up 2 days ago already knowing the theme for this article:

The WORST Stock Market Ever!

That’s because this ride is more Tilt-A-Whirl than Merry-Go-Round thanks to all the volatility. Pretty soon the corn dogs, cotton candy and elephant ears are coming up. (sorry for the visuals…but needed to drive home the point

Gladly if we pull back to the big picture, we can make sense of it all to chart our way to calmer shores. That is what is in store in today’s commentary.

Market Commentary

OK…I might be kidding about this being the worst stock market ever…but it’s certainly not fun. That’s because most people are rational and want things to move ahead in a more orderly fashion. This stock market of late has been anything but that.

Up, down and all around. Not just across weeks and months…but INSIDE of a single session. This candlestick chart of the past month tells that story in spades:

So much to point out on this chart starting with us being absolutely flat month over month. This would seem to indicate that nothing of significance happened. Continue reading "The WORST Stock Market Ever!" →

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

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January offered a rip roaring start for stock investors. The +6.2% result for S&P 500 (SPY) barely scratches the surface on how Risk On the month was versus the generous gains for many of 2022’s most beaten down growth stocks.

The party continued when the calendar first flipped to February. But then investors got served a series of far too hot inflation reports that reminded them the Fed’s fight was far from over. From there stocks headed lower with a -5% drop from the February peak to the current valley.

This sets up for a very interesting month of March with many potential catalysts on the calendar that could have stocks racing higher again… or more likely breaking back into bearish territory.

Let’s dig in deeper on the current market landscape to get our portfolios ready for what lies ahead.

Market Commentary

The best way to set the backdrop for the February sell off is by reminding everyone of this equation:

Higher Rates on the Way (5%+)

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Higher Rates in Place til at Least End of 2023

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6-12 months of lagged economic impact

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Already weak economic readings

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Fertile soil to create recession and thus extension of the bear market with lower lows on the way. Continue reading "Investors: Beware the Ides of March!" →

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

Click Here to learn more about Reitmeister Total Return

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I have been bearish since May 2022. However, I have to admit that the early 2023 evidence did increase the odds of a potential return to a bull market.

That party is over!

Let’s discuss the increasing evidence that bears are ready to come out of hibernation with much more downside to follow. And yes, this will come hand in hand with a trading plan to stay on the right side of action.

Market Commentary

Plain and simple, stocks rallied on a false premise to start 2023.

That being some signs of moderating inflation that could lead the Fed to end their rate hiking regime earlier than expected. This soft landing scenario compelled more investors to believe that bottom was already established and time to bid up stocks for the birth of the next bull market.

The Fed whole heartedly repudiated this idea at the February 1st meeting. They saw inflation as too sticky with no plans to change their hawkish course with higher rates in place through year end.

Bulls were clearly huffing aerosol paint cans at the time because they rallied on the false notion these statements were somehow dovish. The best I can figure out is that because Powell was not pounding the podium and foaming at the mouth that he was somehow dovish.

Clearly not true.

Since then more investors have gotten the memo that the early year rally was premature. Especially after Thursday when the Producer Price Index showed that inflation is much higher than expected.

I saw that event as Strike 3 for bulls as it came on the heels of 2 other events showing inflation being much higher than expected. Continue reading "Are Bearish Investors Coming Out of Hibernation?" →