Precious Metals Commentary

February gold closed sharply lower on Tuesday and below November's low crossing at 1674.70 thereby renewing the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 1638.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1714.50 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1714.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 1757.10. First support is today's low crossing at 1662.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the May-October rally crossing at 1638.00. Continue reading "Precious Metals Commentary"

Monday Morning Energy Commentary

January crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 89.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 82.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 89.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 93.98. First support is the reaction low crossing at 84.53. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-September rally crossing at 82.36.

January heating oil was slightly higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past six weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January renews November's rally, the reaction high crossing at 318.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.66 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for sideways to lower prices into early-December. First resistance is November's high crossing at 318.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 321.44. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 302.66. Second support is November's low crossing at 293.87. Continue reading "Monday Morning Energy Commentary"

Morning Index Commentary

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2754.92 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, monthly resistance crossing at 2847.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 2802.50. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 2847.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2754.92. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 2702.25. Continue reading "Morning Index Commentary"

Energy Market Morning Commentray

October crude oil was higher overnight but remains below the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.22. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a pause or short-term top in this summer's rally might be forming. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.14 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness. If October extends the rally off June's low, the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 102.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 98.22. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 102.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.14. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 91.97. Continue reading "Energy Market Morning Commentray"

Friday Grains Commentary

December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally. Stochastics are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Monday's close below the 20-day moving average has opened the door for additional profit taking near-term and a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 7.45 1/2. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 7.45 1/2 would confirm that a pre-harvest top has been posted. If December renews this summer's rally into uncharted territory, the July 5th measuring gap projects a potential rally to the 8.54 1/2 area. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 8.49. Second resistance is the July 5th measuring gap projection of a potential rally to the 8.54 1/2 area. First support is Monday's low crossing at 7.86. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 7.45 1/2. Continue reading "Friday Grains Commentary"