When The Bond Bubble Blows Up

Amazing isn’t it? It was only back in H2 2018 when everybody but you (because you are as smart as I think you are or because you read NFTRH or nftrh.com) and I was unbelievably bearish about the TREASURY BOND BEAR MARKET!!!

Today… not so much. The herd is absolutely pile driving bonds right now.

tlt bond

I know this all too well because while my SHY (cash equiv.) position is doing well it’s not anything like the above, and is basically – given relative position sizes – offsetting a position in this, which I am still holding with all the stubbornness of a pissed off contrarian. Continue reading "When The Bond Bubble Blows Up"

Are We Really In A Bond Bear Market?

George Yacik - INO.com Contributor - Fed & Interest Rates


The U.S. bond market took it on the chin again last week. The question is: Was this is a harbinger of even higher yields to come or just an overreaction to some potentially scary headlines – some of which turned out to be fake news – and therefore a potential buying opportunity?

“Bond King” Bill Gross started the fun on Tuesday when he tweeted out these ominous words: “Bond bear market confirmed.” He did tone that down in his market commentary to his Janus Henderson clients, saying, “We have begun a bear market although not a dangerous one for bond investors. Annual returns should still likely be positive, although marginally so.”

Still, that’s not a whole lot to be happy about, unless you’re heavily invested in stocks, where the returns may be even worse, i.e., negative. The other so-called Bond King, Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, predicted that the S&P 500 Index would end the year with a negative return. He also said that if the 10-year Treasury yield pushes past 2.63% – which it almost did last week – it will accelerate higher.

The news got worse after that. Continue reading "Are We Really In A Bond Bear Market?"