On January 2, 2018, Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone, issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2018. “Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.”
Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2018 includes
“The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude moves above $80. The price rises because of continued world growth and unexpected demand from developing markets, together with disappointing hydraulic fracking production, diminished inventories, OPEC discipline and only modest production increases from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq, and Iran.” Continue reading "Why $80 Crude Oil Is Highly Unlikely In 2018"
The U.S. bond market took it on the chin again last week. The question is: Was this is a harbinger of even higher yields to come or just an overreaction to some potentially scary headlines – some of which turned out to be fake news – and therefore a potential buying opportunity?
“Bond King” Bill Gross started the fun on Tuesday when he tweeted out these ominous words: “Bond bear market confirmed.” He did tone that down in his market commentary to his Janus Henderson clients, saying, “We have begun a bear market although not a dangerous one for bond investors. Annual returns should still likely be positive, although marginally so.”
Still, that’s not a whole lot to be happy about, unless you’re heavily invested in stocks, where the returns may be even worse, i.e., negative. The other so-called Bond King, Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital, predicted that the S&P 500 Index would end the year with a negative return. He also said that if the 10-year Treasury yield pushes past 2.63% – which it almost did last week – it will accelerate higher.
The news got worse after that. Continue reading "Are We Really In A Bond Bear Market?"
Another year has passed, and we have started 2018 looking for new opportunities and facing new challenges. It is time to see the result of the 4th Pendulum swing published in the middle of 2017. To remind you, we had pitted palladium against orange juice in that race and below are your bets for that experiment.
Chart 1. Poll results
Chart courtesy of INO.com
These poll results show a good split of opinions as it wasn’t ultra-biased in favor of the metal. The majority of readers hit it right as their prediction came true and palladium (+23.5%) could easily beat not only the orange juice (1.7%) but most of the futures over the last half of the year, ranking the 6th. Moreover, this is the first failure of the experiment as it was thought that the previous loser orange juice would beat the last winner palladium, but it didn’t happen.
I am not upset about this outcome because when you start an experiment, you like to see how your hypothesis works out. Any success or failure is the part of a test, and quite often you find out something genuinely new, which is outside of your initial thought. Many things in this world are invented during the experiments that were meant to find something different.
From the very beginning, I knew that one thing was inevitably imperfect in this experiment, I always choose the top performing/underperforming metal instead of the top losing/gaining futures against the other futures to stay focused on the metals. Another thing is the period of the experiment. This is also a crucial variable of the experiment. So far it works pretty well, and I would tune only the first imperfection to let the futures, not metal to be picked against each other from now on. Continue reading "Pendulum Experiment No.4: The First Failure"
Hello traders everywhere. The January Bitcoin (CME:BRTI) selloff gained momentum on Tuesday when the cryptocurrency dropped as much as 13% in early trading as the prospect of global regulatory crackdowns appeared to spread.
A South Korean news website Yonhap reported that Finance Minister Kim Dong-yeon had told a local radio station that the government would be coming up with a set of measures to clamp down on the "irrational" cryptocurrency investment craze.
South Korea said on Monday that its plans to ban virtual coin exchanges had not yet been finalized, as government agencies were still in talks to decide how to regulate the market.
That news broke just as a report surfaced that a senior Chinese central banker had said authorities should ban centralized trading of virtual currencies and prohibit individuals and businesses from providing related services.
China shut down exchanges operating on the mainland last year - a move that also sparked a selloff.
The January selloff has seen Bitcoin (CME:BRTI) fall 42% from it's December 2017 high of 19,528.87.
Key levels to watch next week: Continue reading "Bitcoin Falls On Global Regulatory Concerns"
We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.
Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.
Gold futures in the February contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,322 an ounce while currently trading at 1,333 up about $11 for the trading week right near a four-month high. I'm currently not involved in any of the precious metals as they have rebounded sharply over the last month. The U.S. dollar has now hit a four-month low in today's trade continuing its bearish trend which has supported gold and the precious metals recently, but the chart structure is poor coupled with the fact that we are in overbought territory. I will be patient & wait for a better chart pattern to develop before entering into a trade. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher as we now look to retest the September 8th high around 1,365 in my opinion. This market has rallied substantially from the recent low, that was hit on December 12th at 1,238 as we have now rallied nearly $100 in a blink of an eye despite the fact that U.S. stock market hits all-time highs every day, but this rally is based on a weak U.S. Dollar. Gold is also riding the coattails of the energy market which is right at a three-year high in crude oil as both of these are considered inflationary commodities as the U.S. economy and worldwide economies are improving significantly as that should bolster commodity prices across the board in 2018.
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"