Hello traders everywhere. It's all about corporate earnings this week vs. the geopolitical tensions of the past few weeks to a month. Gone are the talks of trade tariffs and possible conflicts as the markets turn to outstanding earnings reports from the big names in tech and the big banks.
This push higher this week has given life to the markets and helped the both the DOW and S&P 500 issue new green weekly Trade Triangles indicating that the projected long-term downtrend has moved to a sidelines position based on the Chart Analysis Scores. We will now turn our attention to the next major hurdle and that's the issuance of new green monthly Trade Triangles for both indexes.
As for the NASDAQ, it too issued a new green weekly Trade Triangle signaling that the long-term trend has resumed and is looking to head higher based on a strong Chart Analysis Score of +100.
Crude oil continues higher hitting a new high this month, it's the highest level since 2014. The reason for the gains today is an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report that showed shrinking American petroleum surpluses and the first crude withdrawal from the largest U.S. storage complex in six weeks. The U.S. draw-downs underlined optimism that an OPEC-led effort to curb global supplies will be reinforced later this week when the cartel and allied producers gather in Saudi Arabia. Continue reading "It's All About Corporate Earnings"
Recently, I was looking for my school notes amongst my old stuff for my eldest daughter to help her understand chemistry as my school teacher was a real fanatic on this subject. During the process, I found many things with memories from my youth, and it prompted me to call my old friends and discuss those handwritten letters that we used to send by messenger. We couldn’t have ever imagined that the digital era would come.
Quite often things from the past can help us today. I decided to dig deep into the past on the gold chart to understand what is happening with our frozen gold market these days. Bingo! He who seeks shall find.
Below is the chart with my annotations to illustrate the findings.
Chart. Gold Quarterly (Logarithmic): This “Vinyl” Could Play Again
Chart courtesy of stooq.com
First of all, I would like you to pay attention to the word “Logarithmic” in the chart title, which is usually abbreviated as “Log” in the chart options. It means that the Y-axis of the chart has log scale, which is nonlinear and commonly used for the broad range of the data. Continue reading "Gold Update: Old Is "Gold"?"
Hello traders everywhere. Wall Street is off to a good start this week as fears of an escalating conflict in Syria have eased. The DOW has gained as much as 200 points, with Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) rising more than 2% on news that their immunotherapy drug Keytruda plus chemotherapy significantly improved overall survival in newly-diagnosed patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer. The S&P 500 has climbed 0.75%, and the Nasdaq gaining 0.65% in the morning session.
On Saturday, the U.S. military conducted precision missile strikes against the Syrian government as a response to a chemical attack carried out in the country. The attack was conducted in conjunction with France and the U.K. The Pentagon described the U.S.-led strikes as a "justified, legitimate and proportionate response" to the Syrian regime's continued use of chemical weapons.
Crude oil has dropped from the three-year high that it posted to end the week as concerns about conflicts in the Middle East eased. Oil had dropped as much as 1.9% on the day but has settled around the $66.50 level, down about .55%. Continue reading "Stocks Rise As Syria Fears Ease"
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), world oil production will exceed demand for much of the balance of 2018, and therefore global OECD oil inventories are projected to rise. Specifically, the EIA estimates that OECD inventories bottomed at the end of March at 2.784 million barrels (mmb) and will rise by 80 mmb through year-end, up 26 mmb from December 2017. And its projections through 2019 show another net stock gain of 34 mmb to end the year at 2.898 mmb.
The DOE forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are based on dramatically different seasonal stock changes that occurred in 2017. OECD stocks fell by over 147 mmb from August through December, according to the latest estimates. But in 2018, it is predicting a net stock build over those same months.
In 2019, it is forecasting a build similar to 2018, but without a first-quarter draw. Continue reading "Updated World Oil Forecast For April"
If you’re an investor in U.S. Treasury bonds, should you be worried that China may go nuclear? (No, not that kind of nuclear, the kind in the headline of a recent Reuters article about China’s supposed “nuclear option” to stop buying, if not outright sell, its huge holdings of American government bonds).
According to that report – speculation, really – China may consider retaliating against President Trump’s tough tariff talk by pulling its indirect support of the U.S. government, namely its holdings of about $1.2 trillion of Treasury securities. That makes it the largest foreign holder of that debt. Japan is a close second with $1.1 trillion, while Ireland (Ireland?) is a distant third with $328 billion. Altogether, $6.2 trillion of the U.S. government’s total debt of $20 trillion is held by foreign entities or about 31%. That would put China’s share at about 18% of the total foreign-held amount and less than 6% of the grand total.
In case you were wondering, the Federal Reserve holds about $4.5 trillion of the national debt or about four times what China owns. The Social Security Administration owns about $2.8 trillion.
So, is this something we really need to be worried about, even under the remote possibility that China would actually, in financial terms, cut off its nose to spite its face? Continue reading "Will China Nuke Its Own Treasury Portfolio?"