Cyclical Commodities Continue To Weaken

Crude Oil and Industrial Metals continue downward. This is significant per this NFTRH monthly chart showing these items and the broad CRB itself having hit trend lines from the 2008 highs. These pullbacks from long-term trend lines are notable and qualify cyclical commodities as risk indicators for the cyclical macro.

industrial metals

Here is oil’s weekly view. Key support was lost last week as noted in this article: Positive Implications for Gold Miners if Crude Oil Breaks Down. I expect currently oversold WTI to rally from the noted support area, but remain ‘not bullish’ on this cyclical commodity (and remain in scouting mode for the upcoming gold miner buying opportunity). Continue reading "Cyclical Commodities Continue To Weaken"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,233 an ounce while currently trading at 1,211 down over $20 for the trading week as the precious metals across the board look to move lower in my opinion. Gold prices are trading below their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned negative because the U.S. dollar is right near another contract high as interest rates in the United States are on the rise and should continue to climb into 2019. If you are bearish, I would place the stop loss at 1,239 as an exit strategy as it looks to me that prices will retest the 1,195 level possibly in next week's trade as the commodities across the board look very week as now everything is following crude oil to the downside. Silver prices are down over $0.25 today as it looks like that will retest their contract low of 13.96 possibly in next weeks trade as that is also putting pressure on gold as the only bullish commodity is the S&P 500 which reacted very positively to the midterm elections. Volatility in gold is starting to increase and remember if you're trading a smaller account you can trade the mini contract which is 1/3 of the size of the large contract, therefore, reducing the monetary risk.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Will IBM's Red Hat Acquisition Finally Move The Needle?

International Business Machines (IBM) had been trading range bound for five months from mid-April through mid-September, trading between roughly $140 and $145. Before its Q3 earnings, IBM had finally broken out to $154 with a subsequent implosion after its earnings release that fell short of expectations coupled with its announcement that it will be acquiring Red Hat (RHT) for $34 billion.

IBM’s stock is now at a 52-week low after the company missed revenue targets, notably a drop in Cognitive Solutions and server weakness implying that its revived nascent growth earlier this year will be subdued moving forward. IBM’s stock has been decimated and now trades at ~$115 per share or down over 30% from it's 52- week high of $171. IBM has had a long turn in restoring growth after posting 20+ consecutive quarters of declining revenue however IBM had posted back-to-back quarters of revenue growth as of late.

This growth has come on heels of its long-term imperatives beginning to bear fruit in emerging high-value segments that has fundamentally changed its business mix while evolving its offerings to align with new age information technology demands. The Red Hat acquisition will ostensibly augment its transition away from its dependency on legacy businesses to the future of cloud, artificial intelligence, and analytics. Continue reading "Will IBM's Red Hat Acquisition Finally Move The Needle?"

Crude Oil Drags Down The Stock Market

Hello traders everywhere. Overall the stock market was looking to finish out a strong week on a high note, but it was not be. Crude oil had other ideas and decided to spoil the party by doing something that it hasn't done since 1984, that's right, I said 1984. For the first time since 1984 oil will post ten straight losing sessions while suffering a drop of over 20% from the recent high and trading below $60 for the first time since March of this year.

Oil's move lower put a bit of a damper on the week for stocks, but overall the big three indexes will still spot weekly gains with the DOW leading the way with a gain of about +2.5% as I write. The S&P 500 checks in with a weekly gain of +1.6% and NASDAQ will still post an increase of +.30% as we head into the close.

Crude Oil

We also woke up to a surprise from gold, a new red weekly Triangle indicating that the intermediate-term trend has resumed its downward move changing the Chart Analysis Score to -100 and pushing gold down with a weekly loss -1.9% trading close to $1,200.00. On the flip slide, the U.S. dollar is still chugging along posting a weekly gain of +.43%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to go nowhere and will post a weak increase of +.10% on for the week.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "Crude Oil Drags Down The Stock Market"

World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, November 2018

The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for November, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in June at 2.807 billion barrels. It estimated a large 20 million barrel gain for October. Though it forecasts that stocks will drop in December to 2.867 billion, that is 50 million barrels higher than in the October outlook.

Throughout 2019, OECD inventories are generally expected to rise, reaching 3.0 billion barrels in August. It projects ending the year with 138 million barrels more than at the end of 2018 in glut territory.

OECD Oil Inventories

The moment of truth has come, and it appears that the sanctions will cut less of Iran’s production and exports than has been added by OPEC+ producers and the U.S. That is why oil prices have been dropping for eight straight sessions.

Oil Price Implications

I performed a simple linear regression between OECD oil inventories and WTI crude oil prices for the period 2008 through 2017. As expected, there are periods where the price deviates greatly from the regression model. But overall, the model provides a reasonably high r-square result of 79 percent. Continue reading "World Oil Supply, Demand And Price Outlook, November 2018"