Does Oil Hold The Key To The Canadian Dollar

Aibek Burabayev - INO.com Contributor - Metals - Canadian Dollar


At the end of last month, I called for a substantial upcoming weakness in crude oil as the market could have finished the long-lasting consolidation after the earlier crash from 100+ levels. Indeed, oil lost almost $4 from that time and now is rebounding as markets naturally move in zigzags.

Oil-related currencies also suffer, and in this post, I would like to share with you an exciting chart setup with tremendous profit potential for one of such currency, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) also known as “Loonie” among traders.

Before that, I built a chart to demonstrate the correlation between WTI crude oil and the Canadian Dollar.

Chart 1. WTI futures Vs. Canadian dollar futures: Perfect Correlation

Canadian Dollar
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

In the chart above the WTI futures graph is black on the right scale and the Canadian Dollar futures graph (in US$ per 1 CAD) is red on the left scale. I didn’t add any annotations on the chart as you can clearly see that the correlation is just perfect and the most important fact is that the crucial market phases like strong moves and consolidations coincide in time. The Canadian Dollar tends to overshoot WTI amid market strength, but it is quite moderate during market weakness. Continue reading "Does Oil Hold The Key To The Canadian Dollar"

Global Supply/Demand Oil Outlook

Robert Boslego - INO.com Contributor - Energies - Oil Outlook


The Energy Information Administration updated its global supply/demand oil outlook for June. It shows total OECD oil inventories rising through November, ending the year about where they were last December.

Oil Outlook

This is in contrast to the rapid decline in stocks over the second half of 2017, and that enabled oil prices to rise. If this forecast is realized, it should have a moderating impact on prices, taking away some of the risk premium embedded in futures prices.

The stock projections are based on a number of assumptions: Continue reading "Global Supply/Demand Oil Outlook"

US - China Trade Tensions Linger

Hello traders everywhere. On Friday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would impose tariffs that could impact up to $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. According to Washington, the action comes "in light of China's theft of intellectual property and technology and its other unfair trade practices."

That move by President Trump prompted China to retaliate, with Beijing announcing its selection of duties on U.S. goods. The Chinese State Council's commission on tariffs and customs stated that a 25% tariff would occur in early July on $34 billion of U.S. products.

US - China Trade Tensions

The Chinese retaliation news helped to extend the Friday losses into Monday trading with the DOW dropping over 240 pts before bouncing off the lows with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ following suit.

Crude oil has bounced back from a tough Friday gaining over 2% on that day after as OPEC is said to be discussing a smaller-than-expected output increase with Russia. All eyes will be on the Friday OPEC meeting where Russia and Saudi Arabia are set to consider increases in crude oil production.

Key Events To Watch For This Week

Continue reading "US - China Trade Tensions Linger"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract are ending the week on a sour note down $26 an ounce currently trading at 1,284 filling the gap that I've talked about in previous blogs that occurred on December 21st at 1,284 as this market has now hit a 6-month low. The U.S. dollar continues to hover around its contract high as that's the main culprit for depressed prices as gold continues its bearish momentum in 2018 also pushing silver prices down $0.60 this afternoon as that is my only precious metal recommendation at the current time. Gold futures are trading under 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside breaking out of a 4-week consolidation as the volatility certainly has expanded as the entire commodity markets across the board today are lower as the Trump tariffs talks are throwing a wrench into the closet and who knows how this situation is going to end up. The next major level of support stands at 1,260 as there is still room to run to the downside in my opinion as all of the interest still remains in the U.S. equity market which is also lower today, however the NASDAQ 100 did hit all-time highs once again this week as money flows continue to come out of gold and into stocks as I don't see that situation changing as I still believe the stock market will remain strong for the rest of this year.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"