Following The Gold Stocks Leaders As The Fed Prints

Gold stocks have led the market for a year, and with economic deceleration and Fed policy response that leadership looks to continue [edit: today’s ‘in the bag’ bounce-back Jobs report does little to alter the economic deceleration theme]

We have been on a bullish gold mining view for over a year now. Over that time there have been three interruptions, the downward-biased consolidation from August to November 2019, the flash crash (and very constructive gap-filling mission) in March and most recently the pullback that logically began in May as broad stock market relief started to fan out to more and more momentum chasers who’d finally gotten the hint that the Fed means to devalue the US currency (in competition to a degree with its global counterparts seeking to do the same), making cash a non-viable investment position (other than for risk management to the bullish asset market atmosphere).

The daily chart of HUI shows a successful support test, purely up trending moving averages, all gaps filled but the breakaway gap (a ‘breakaway’ does not need to fill any time soon as it changes or reasserts a trend; there is also an old gap from 2016 near 100 that we need not worry at this time), RSI now positive and trending up above its EMA 20, MACD triggered up and positive and neither of them showing overbought readings. Ah, the beauty of a routine correction within an uptrend. All systems on this daily chart are technically ‘go’.

Gold Stocks - HUI

What’s more, the HUI/SPX ratio is now on an uninterrupted 1-year uptrend. With the come-lately players (institutions, hedge funds, black boxes, Ma ‘n Pa and knee-jerking herds of all stripes) having moved on to perceived greener pastures due to the broad stock market’s May-June outperformance the gold miners are again taking leadership. Continue reading "Following The Gold Stocks Leaders As The Fed Prints"

Outstanding Jobs Number Catapults Futures

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,780 while currently trading at 1,788 an ounce in a holiday-shortened trading week continuing it's bullish momentum as prices did crack the critical 1,800 level earlier in the week.

Currently, I am not involved as my only precious metal recommendation is a bullish silver trade. However, I do have a bullish bias as I do think gold prices will crack the 2,000 level, and if you are long a futures contract, I would place the stop-loss at the 10-day low standing at 1,753 as an exit strategy as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time. Gold prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains to the upside as prices still finished about $9 higher today even though the jobs number came out, adding 4.8 million jobs, which is remarkable in my opinion as that is generally a fundamental bearish factor. Still, there is a lot of demand for gold at present. The Federal Reserve continues to promise that they will add more liquidity to the system with another possible 1 or 2 trillion-dollar stimulus package on the way that should continue to push gold higher, so stay long as I see no reason to be short.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: HIGH

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the September contract is trading higher for the 4th consecutive session reacting very positively to the unemployment number, which was released today, stating that the United States added 4.8 million jobs sending prices up 41 points currently trading at 3,144 or 1.33% higher. If you've been following my previous blogs, you understand that I am not involved. Still, I do have a bullish bias as I think the equity markets will continue to move higher as I see no reason to be short as the Nasdaq-100, which has hit another all-time high in today's trade. Continue reading "Outstanding Jobs Number Catapults Futures"

Silver Could Take Gold Down With Bearish Divergence

I was watching top metals closely as their price dynamics didn’t convince with sharp zigzags up and down, which are more appropriate during market consolidations, not trends. When silver hardly tagged the former top on the 1st of July, I got cautious. So, this post is aimed to share with you a warning alert for top metals as I spotted a Bearish signal on the silver chart. I will start with its daily chart below to show you the details.

Silver
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

“Silver was a gamechanger” in April as then it finally revealed its structure with a sharp drop and the following V-turn, which indeed changed the game for both top metals since then. This time again, it shows a leading Bearish indicator ahead of gold. Continue reading "Silver Could Take Gold Down With Bearish Divergence"

10 Options Trading Rules That Must Be Followed

Despite the COVID-19 backdrop, some individual stocks and broader indices have exploded to new all-time highs and retraced previous all-time highs, respectively. Since the depths of the COVID-19 induced sell-off in late March, the markets have experienced an uninterrupted resurgence. It’s easy to become complacent when markets are roaring higher. However, one must remain disciplined when managing risk, especially as it relates to options trading. Mitigating risk and maximizing returns is paramount as the markets rotate out of the depths COVID-19 sell-off. Options trading offers the optimal balance between risk and reward while providing a margin of downside protection and a statistical edge. Proper portfolio construction and optimal risk management is essential when engaging in options trading as a means to drive portfolio performance. The Q4 2018 and the COVID-19 pandemic are prime examples of why maintaining liquidity, risk-defining trades, staggering options expiration dates, trading across a wide array of uncorrelated tickers, maximizing the number of trades, appropriate position allocation and selling options to collect premium income are keys to an effective long-term options strategy.

An Effective Long-Term Options Strategy

A slew of protective measures should be deployed if options are used as a means to drive portfolio results. One of the main pillars when building an options-based portfolio is maintaining a significant portion of cash-on-hand. This cash position provides the ability to rapidly adapt when faced with extreme market conditions such as COVID-19 and Q4 2018 sell-offs. When selling options and running an options-based portfolio, the following guidelines are essential (Figures 1 and 2):

      1. Trade across a wide array of uncorrelated tickers
      2. Maximize sector diversity
      3. Spread option contracts over various expiration dates
      4. Sell options in high implied volatility environment
      5. Manage winning trades
      6. Use defined-risk trades
      7. Maintains a ~50% cash level
      8. Maximize the number of trades, so the probabilities play out to the expected outcomes
      9. Continue to trade through all market environments
      10. Appropriate position sizing/trade allocation

10 Options Rules
Figure 1 – Defining the 10 rules that one must follow to appropriately manage risk and maximize returns when deploying options as a means to drive portfolio results
Continue reading "10 Options Trading Rules That Must Be Followed"

Israel's Bid To Legalize Recreational Cannabis

Israel just took an important step to make it the next country to legalize recreational cannabis. If this happens, two young cannabis stocks could surge.

A bill to legalize recreational cannabis in Israel passed a critical test after being approved by the Ministerial Committee for Legislation.

According to The Times of Israel, this bill would decriminalize possession (up to 50 grams). It would also legalize individual possession of up to 15 grams among opening up other restrictions.

Here are some more details from The Times of Israel.

If the bill becomes law, selling and purchasing marijuana for personal use will be legal for those above 21 and authorized shops will be allowed to sell cannabis product, through growing marijuana at home will still be illegal. The legislation also outlined medical cannabis reform.

On Wednesday, the legislation is expected to be brought before the Knesset for the first of three votes it must clear in order to become a law.

The bill still has to jump a few hurdles, but the outlook is promising. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has found the leadership support needed for full legalization and has vowed to “resolve the issue of decriminalization and legalization.”

If the bill is passed – it would pave the way for Israel’s medical and recreational industry to flourish. If legalization pushes through, these two stocks are in position to benefit. Continue reading "Israel's Bid To Legalize Recreational Cannabis"