How To Fight Inflation With ETFs

Many market participants, including the Federal Reserve Board members, believe that inflation is coming. The questions at this point we would love to have answers to are, how bad will it be, will the Fed be able to control it, and how long will we experience a period of high inflation.

For years, the Federal Reserve has told us they wanted to see 2% or higher inflation, and for years we were below their benchmark goal. The Covid-19 Pandemic stimulus packages, combined with very low-interest rates and the low supply of material and goods due to Covid-19 shutdowns and the belief that demand would be weak following the shutdowns, we see prices from homes to cars to toys to obviously wood and other commodities sky-rocket.

So, it's easy to see that inflation is finally here, after years of the Fed trying to get it to move higher. But, now that it is here and it's clear the Fed had very little to do with it moving higher does anyone really have control of it? If no one does, then it could go much higher than most economists would like it to go, and it could stay that way for longer than most people would want it to? Continue reading "How To Fight Inflation With ETFs"

Dollar, Gold And Silver: The Market Takes A Break

The market does not move in a straight line. I anticipated a correction to start in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) as it moved down too far without a break, and it came at the end of last week. Traders decided to book some profit ahead of a weekend, pushing the price of the dollar higher.

U.S. Dollar Index Daily Chart

I highlighted the possible retracement area between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels with the orange rectangle within the 91.60 - 92.30 range. The dollar nears the first resistance. The top of the rectangle is very close to the trendline resistance, making it a fortified barrier. Continue reading "Dollar, Gold And Silver: The Market Takes A Break"

Futures Market Trending Higher

Natural Gas Futures

Natural Gas futures in the June contract is currently trading higher by 3 points at 2.94 as prices are right near a two-month high, continuing its bullish momentum in this week's trade.

I have been recommending a bullish position initially in the May contract at the 2.66 level. If you took that trade, the stop-loss has been raised to the 10-day low, which now stands at 2.73 as an exit strategy as to chart structure will also improve daily; therefore, the monetary risk will be reduced.

Fundamentally speaking, gas prices have underlying support from expectations for increased heating demand for nat-gas after Maxar said below-normal temperatures are expected for the central and eastern U.S. from May 4-8. Strength in foreign demand for U.S. nat-gas supplies is bullish for prices. Gas flows to U.S LNG export terminals on Thursday rose +64% y/y to 11.4 bcf. On Apr 18, gas flows to U.S LNG export terminals climbed to a record 11.921 bcf (data from 2014) according to BNEF.

Gas prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as this trend remains strong to the upside. I believe the 3.08 level, which was hit on Feb 18, will be breached in the coming days ahead as the entire energy sector remains in a longer-term bullish secular trend. In my opinion, there is room to run to the upside, so stay long as the volatility also should start to escalate in the coming weeks ahead.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Cotton Futures

Cotton futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 88.80 while currently trading at 87.80, down about 100 points for the trading week. However, prices remain in a strong bullish trend to the upside. Continue reading "Futures Market Trending Higher"

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

This week we have a stock market forecast for the week of 5/2/21 from our friend Bo Yoder of the Market Forecasting Academy. Be sure to leave a comment and let us know what you think!

The S&P 500 (SPY)

SPY Daily Chart - Stock Market Forecast

The S&P 500 (analyzed here using SPY) worked to process a new short-term top this week as forecast in last week’s submission.

My short-term forecast hasn’t changed since last week and can be seen in the form of the yellow arrows on the daily chart here. I expect to see a correction to form next week and then another push back up to retest the highs over the next couple of weeks.

The patience we have had to exhibit over the last month or two is paying off as there are a lot of nice opportunities showing themselves in individual stocks this week... Let’s look at a few! Continue reading "Weekly Stock Market Forecast"

Stocks End Week With A Thud

Stocks ended the week and the month of April with a thud on Friday as traders took profits amid a flurry of better-than-expected earnings results from the biggest names in the market. The S&P 500 fell -0.7% to 4,181.17, while the DOW shed -.54% or 185.51 points to close at 33,874.85, and the NASDAQ dropped -0.9% to 13,962.68.

On a weekly level, the S&P 500 was able to eke out a gain of +.02% marking 3 out of 4 positive weeks in April. The DOW and NASDAQ didn't fare well, both losing -.50% and -.39%, respectively.

While that may be disappointing, the bigger picture tells a different story. If you look at the monthly charts, The S&P 500 gained +5.24% while the DOW rose about +2.7% this month, and the NASDAQ gained +5.4% in April.

Key Levels To Watch Next Week:

Continue reading "Stocks End Week With A Thud"