Gold ... is it time for this market?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Today I'm going to take a look at the gold market. While many traders have been frustrated with this market for the past several month, it has in fact performed quite well given the generally negative feeling for most markets.

While the printing press is going at full-tilt in the US and the fact that most people are not involved in the gold market at the present time, it occurs to me that this market could indeed be setting itself up for a nice rally.

In my new video, I explain in detail some key levels to watch for in the gold market. If these levels are broken then you definitely want to take a position in the direction of the major trend.

As always, this video is available with my compliments and there is no registration required.

All the best,
Adam Hewison

President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

9 thoughts on “Gold ... is it time for this market?”

  1. Hey Rol I am with you. I have been trading physical oil commercially since the early 70s and seen it all. I went long in January because fundamentally sub 40$ prices are below marginal production costs and therefore unsustainable. It has been a scary but very profitable rollercoaster.
    Now the short term fundamentals have turned. In addition to the highest and still growing crude oil stocks in US history, despite OPEC production cuts, coupled with a weak and still contracting global economy we are faced with over 100 million barrels floating storage in VLCCs from speculators taking advantage of the existing strong forward contango.
    OPEC is the wild card. They have announced production cuts of roughly 4 million barrels per day to attain their declared price target in the $ 70 range, but I don’t see the moderate gulf producers reducing output any further while the hawkish Iranians and Venezuelans continue cheating on their production quotas. The Russians have played lip service to the OPEC cause but have not reduced supply.
    Technically June WTI could easily reach the 62 to 65 level and momentum plus US Dollar weakness certainly supports such a move, but I decided to play it safe and sold my remaining long positions today.
    I use technical indicators to time my entry and exit points but I never bet against overwhelming fundamentals.
    Long term I am very bullish on oil because E & P capital investment reductions and delays caused by a combination of recent low prices and weak capital markets will restrict future supply when the world economy and demand eventually recover and start to grow again. I fully expect to reestablish long positions to take advantage of the situation in the future. For now the sidelines are comfortable.

  2. Well Yep its me again... I think I made the right call with 920 gold to play it for a quick pop... as it has not been able to hold the 920 mark. I'm not really sure why gold is up at these levels anyway... yeah the dollar has recently gone down... hedge against inflation? hmm... not yet... we have deflation.... will the US dollar dive down against other currencies?... hmm possibly... but other currencies are in just as bad shape... the only real fact here is that inflation may kick in ; world wide that is... later... but I really think that oil is a better place to be for this bear market rally ... yes your hearing it here I'm making the 60 dollar call on oil most likely it will test that level by next week... could I be wrong perhaps.... but I wouldn't bet against me:)

    I've grown weary of trading gold.. there are way to many longs.... just today... it went above 920 then shot back down to the 904-8 level ... that tells me that there are way to many longs looking for good opportunities to dump the contracts... some type of fearful news is needed to push it up further....

    and oil.. lol.. on no real good fundamentals is shooting up for no apparent good reason other than momentum... however if anyone is taking anything I'm saying seriously again; I would not play this as a long term hold.. buy and as soon as it even grazes the 60 mark get out... because if you were a fundamental trader you'd be saying to yourself... oil really should be in the 40's... nothing has really changed.

  4. welcome back! I think we all missed your videos. Market is weird and we will like your view.

    Thanks

  5. Adam, gold has been consolidating for quite some time now and may take a little longer to break out. If and when it finally takes out the 1000 US$ level the strength of that rally will probably surprise even the most ardent bulls. Unfortunately it may be triggered by some negative events elsewhere such as a drastic fall of the US$, the bond market or some type of military catastrophe.
    A traders blog on the crude oil market would also be of great interest at this juncture.
    Thanks,
    Manny

  6. Robert? Lol..I think Adam was pretty clear on when to enter a gold position 920 mark and above...

    Now for you gold bugs... hmm... I've been trading gold for sometime (futures)now.... and yes it has consolidated somewhat at this level... some of it due to the sinking dollar and also the stress tests.. the stress tests are already priced in..... I've been puzzling over its behavior... IMF came out and said it wanted to sell tons of it lol... it still held 865 as low as it went..... I would say for a short term trade if it does go above the 920 level enter for a short pop 925, 928 level and get out. Do I think it will go back to 1000 nope.. not as long as the bear market rally in the S&P lasts. and I would not trade against that freight train yet..... when that's over.. perhaps... also if you want a hedge against inflation... look at oil no IMF there... but I also think oil is overpriced at this level... should still be in the 40's... 465,000 jobs lost in the US ( and there saying its not that bad??) with 11% unemployment coming on its way; tha means less drivers, less everything; sometimes the greed momentum takes over...

  7. this is what I needed, Adam. glad you're back safe and, of course, sound! Now, as to gold options, are there any we should especially be watching? Three months (or sooner) -- Six months (or longer) and, what prices should we be considering?

    I have written about the possible attack of Israel on Iran. My recent sojourn in Israel confirms that it will occur and in the not-to-distant future. Now, should this occur, what do you think its effect on the price of gold would be? I would say that the immediate effect on gold ... and also oil although Israel will not hit the oil fields, at least not directly ... would culminate in a sharp upwards movement.

    Also Adam, kindly respond, it was not perfectly clear if you meant that now is a time to buy gold; that if gold closes above $902.82 to buy; or if we should wait until (and if) gold drives above $920? As the timespan to act may be quite brief, can you respond to all questions but especially the latter immediately?

    thanks, robert

  8. Excellent analysis on gold---marketclub is wonderful--thanks so much

  9. Great videos.

    I missed those videos while you were gone. They are great educational trading materials.

    Thanks again for those.

    Loic

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