Bitcoin Duplicates Gold Chart

“It's not gods who make pots” as investors move the market, pushing the buttons and sending the orders to the marketplace. It’s clear that they tend to behave one way or another, and that’s why patterns exist and appear from time to time as “there is no new thing under the sun.” It doesn’t matter what the instrument is it, let it be a very old commodity or a new digital asset, it is people who “worship” it, make it valuable and move the price of it.

Bitcoin caught the hype again recently after a disastrous 2018 when it was just falling all way down. I would like to share with you an interesting similarity in the chart structure of “perpetual” gold and Bitcoin aka “new gold” to find out if this rally is a part of something bigger.

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Let’s start from the monthly gold chart as it is a model for the Bitcoin chart. Continue reading "Bitcoin Duplicates Gold Chart"

Gold Update: Calm Before Storm?

Last month I spotted the reversal Head & Shoulders pattern on the daily gold chart and shared it with you. Let’s see how it played out.

I entered the replay mode on the chart below and deleted the bars that appeared after the previous post to show you what I was expecting from the Head & Shoulders pattern. I would like to add more educational annotations for you in this post.

Head & Shoulders pattern
Chart courtesy of tradingview.com

The previous annotations were switched to gray except the target level for the Head & Shoulders pattern. So, what I was expecting to appear on the chart? First of all, there should be a breakdown below the Neckline, which would confirm the pattern (short red down arrow). Usually, after the breakdown, the price retests broken Neckline (blue up arrow). Only then, the market continues its move in the direction of a target (long red down arrow). Continue reading "Gold Update: Calm Before Storm?"

Gold Update: Reversal Pattern Emerges

Last time I updated the gold chart at the beginning of the year I focused on the long-term consolidation, which has started at the end of 2015 and has a tricky structure as all corrective stages do. I shared with you the three most feasible options of structure development.

The first one implies the straight move up beyond the former top of $1375 (blue labels), it took only 22% of your likes. The second option, which you liked the most (48%), offers triangular consolidation (green labels). The third alternative (red labels) gained 30% of your support, and it could bring gold back down to retest $1122 area before it goes up.

I am proud to have such smart readers of my posts as most of the time you accurately predict the market behavior as last time you did it with a Santa Claus rally of precious metals. These days I spotted one notorious pattern, which could terminate the first option, which collected the least support from your voting, that amazes me again and again.

Gold Daily Chart: Possible Head And Shoulders Pattern

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Chart courtesy of tradingview.com
Continue reading "Gold Update: Reversal Pattern Emerges"

A Precious Metals Update

I reserve most of the work on precious metals for NFTRH weekly reports and in-week updates because it is done on a consistent basis, with the work done previously key to the narrative making sense in real time and going forward. In other words, in order to not be out there stabbing in the dark, you need to have an ongoing, adjustable plan that makes sense at all times with the macro markets around it.

So that said, let’s take a snapshot of where things stand currently with the understanding that this work will need future updates, which will probably not be made publicly. It is up to the reader to do the work required to put context to the picture. Meanwhile, this will free up more space in next week’s NFTRH 538 to focus on some quality miner charts, which sometimes take a back seat to the macro/sector stuff.

Precious Metals Update

First off, Commitments of Traders data are only available through 12.31.18 as a result of the government shutdown. So we are flying somewhat blind from that perspective. At the end of December, the CoT for gold and silver were well on their way to a bearish alignment. Have they maxed their trends and reversed in the meantime? It is quite possible, especially since the metals have taken pullbacks (within their intermediate uptrends) recently.

We have been following an analog to 2001, which saw SPX break down below its 50 & 200 day moving averages as HUI began its bull market. What’s more, SPX then tested its breakdown in Q1 2001… Continue reading "A Precious Metals Update"

Gold Update: This Move Is Too Big To Ignore

Every year ahead of Christmas I traditionally ask your opinion about the possible Santa Claus Rally in the precious metals market. Last time it was on the 10th of December. In that post, I shared my worries about the possible Grinch effect of the emerging strength of the US dollar (DXY index), which could spoil the rally at the end of the year.

Most of you believed that the Santa Claus Rally would happen despite the possible threat from the dollar’s strength. And like many times before you were absolutely right as both metals gained at the end of the year – gold’s price surged $50, and silver’s price jumped more than $1. Tremendous gains, bravo!

At the start of the New Year, I would like to update the medium term gold chart for you. Continue reading "Gold Update: This Move Is Too Big To Ignore"