Trader's Blog Contest For October

“At what price will the DOW close for the last day of 2009”

Pick a price that you think will match the close for December 31st, 2009. You can simply enter a price (i.e. 1100) or you can enter a price and a short analysis of how/why you chose that price. Unlike our other monthly contests, we are giving away a small prize pack to a random participant for the month as well as a grand prize to the person that comes closest to the actual price. We will be contacting the grand prize winner on Monday, January 4th via email. Just leave a comment on this post stating that price at which you believe the DOW will close for 2009 and a brief comment (optional). ONE ENTRY PER PERSON OR YOU WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE CONTEST.

Michelle & Jeremy of MarketClub

Monthly Prize Winner will receive...

MarketClub Hat

MarketClub Shirt

1 Complimentary Month of MarketClub

Grand Prize Winner will receive...

MarketClub Hat

MarketClub Zip Drive

MarketClub Shirt

3 Complimentary Months of MarketClub

How To Enter:

Comment on this post telling us the price at which you think the DOW will close for 2009. You may add a little bit of commentary or opinion if you would like to... just keep it clean and remember that there is only one entry per person. All multiple entries will be deleted without notification.

Rules

1. This contest is open until 11:59 PM (Eastern) on October 31st, 2009.

2. No wrong answers. Any participation counts as an entry.

3. One entry per email address.

4. Winner will be picked by random integer software.

5. Monthly Prize Winner will be contacted on Monday, November 2nd, 2009 via email. The Grand Prize Winner will be contacted on Monday, January 4th via email.

Good luck!

194 thoughts on “Trader's Blog Contest For October

  1. The Dow will fall out of bed in the next 2 months as the dollar is destroyed by the fraud of our politicians and the Federal Reserve.
    I predict it will end up at 8.592

  2. 8701, wave 3 has begin, and major support is this are, with a lot of previous price action in this range, it might take a couple of weeks to punch through these bands. I wrote a blog about this coming wave 3, and tied it together with some fractals that formed in 2008. It is done on the SPX, so I had to super-impose my chart over the DOW to get the number I did. For anyone interested in fractals, you might enjoy this post from my blog, EW Trends and Charts.
    http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/2009/10/fractals.html

  3. The DOW will be at 8250 by year end. Asset valuations will come down with strengthening dollar.

  4. ever the optimist;I want the DOW at 12500.why not ?we live in interesting times,Don't we??????????

  5. Dow stänger 8671, fler bubblor och tråkiga nyheter är att vänta,byxorna är inte färdigtvättade

  6. I think dow still have some upside potential and my target will be at 9489 by the end of this year.

  7. My guess is 10850. That number corresponds to where the wheels really started to come off back in the beginning of Oct 08. I'm guessing that number will constitute some resistance that will be hard to get through.

  8. Here in southwest Arkansas the economy is holding its own as of now..
    Potlatch has closed a plant sometime back.. When the weather improves (we had record amounts of rain for the year) things will improve for the loggers and farmers. I see things getting better from now to the next 3 to 4 years.....Arkansas unemploymnent rate is 7.1% not bad compared to many other parts of the US....We are a diversified economy in Arkansas.... Agriculture based...

  9. I like you website and I find it very interesting.By the way Adam,I saw your picture and you and I look very much alike.I may subscribe to your website in the future and I like the way you teach online.I nevere saw that before and you seem to know what you are talking about.I saw your ad on Blumberg on a New York Channel last night and it's a good ad.Looking forward to future e-mails.
    Sincerely,Robert

    1. I think that @ the yr.-end 2009 the Dow will be trading somewhere below the $10,300 level. And if I had to put a no. on it I would say: 10,292.35.

  10. Here is a quote from Lao Tzu:

    "Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."

    So I admit that I don't know and I am just guessing like everyone else here, but since I could use a hat and a t-shirt, here it goes:

    Dow by Dec. 31, 2009 = $8,597.48 (which is 1 std. deviation down from the current price)

  11. As you are asking for a prediction for the "PRICE" of the DOW and not at what value the DOW will be at at the end of the year: The ticker symbol DOW (DOW CHEM CO COM) will have a cost at the end of the year at $28.00 per share. 🙂

  12. I'm looking at 100 points +/- 11,751...(this from one who has been studying charts for only 5-6 months so don't put to much on it) 🙂

  13. My guess is that the Dow will close at the end of the year at 11,283 ---

    but I will add that after the start of the new year it will once again fall, fall to the 8,000 level

  14. I believe the Dow will close at 11,574 on the 31st of December 2009. I hope I'm right so that we can all enjoy a happier 2010!

  15. My guess is the Dow will certainly gain through the last Quarter, closing at an easy 11600. Next year might be a little different though!!

  16. The DOW will close at 11,109 on the last day of 2009. Then watch out for 2010 first quarter, as it heads down...

  17. I am a bear with this market. Fundelmentals still weak. To many people not working. Consumer goods not being bought. Christmas sales will determine to a large extent what the market will look like.
    DOW 8107

  18. I think Dow will close at 10500, slightly higher than its 50% Fibonacci retracement from its lowest point in February 2009.

  19. Dow will be at 11111 - because the dollar is weak. Real value in 2007 peak terms will be approximately a 50% retracement of the current rally. Dollar is falling so fast that retracement has to include a "correction factor" - thats not the way it was back in the day when the retracement math was conceived.

  20. The Dow will close at 7797 on Dec. 31, 2009. A 61% retracement of this floundering Bear market "super rally" that began in March 2009.

    Now if the US Dollar falls over the cliff at 76, the Dow could be in orbit around the Moon by Christmas, but I'll stick with 7797.

  21. The DOW will be at 10,015 after falling to re-test support from previous highs.
    (Everthing is backwards right now - so stocks will break above 10,000 during October/November, become over-sold and then fall during the year-end period ... instead of rally further).

  22. a health level in a slow recovery,but still a recovery.retail sales and the consumer back to work will have hit bottom and will be beginning to bounce up,with housing having positive numbers gdp increasing by eoy.

  23. My prediction is that on Thursday, December 31, the Dow will close at 11,237. A crush of short covering by inverse funds will cause this spike, soon to be followed by a pull-back. Gradually, the realities of back-breaking unemployment, falling expectations, repositioning of the epicenter of global growth, and a surge in bets on the short side will cause the Dow to tumble. Considering the meteoric rise from first touching 2,000 in 1987, to crashing 20% in October of the same year, to spiking from 3,200 when Bill Clinton was inaugurated in 1993 to 11,200 when Clinton left office in 2001, we can expect the Dow to migrate to the mathematically predicted normal level of about 6,700. After the following depression sets in, the Dow will stumble along and after a few years, will hit a low of 4,783. Overpopulation, diminishing resources, overcrowding, and gradual increase in misery will be the inheritance of our children.

  24. I'm looking for Dow at 7989 by the last day of 2009, the end of a medium term cycle low.

  25. Dow will close at 8475, dollar must go up or currency markets fall apart, therefore stocks must come down.

  26. the down, let me see.... i thing about 9645 points!!!!....will see...

    congratulation for the web!!

  27. Closing price for Dow 31 Dec.8543.68

    and ---- I think gold will rise to $1328
    I know that wasn't the question but its more interesting!

  28. I think the it will drop to around 8000 completing the head of a future head and shoulders top. I think that by then some more ugliness will be upon us driven by higher inflation.

  29. Gold, silver and oil rising by then should offset some of the crashing we will hear, so I say 10053.

  30. Elliott Wave on a weekly chart indicates a close of the DOW at 7723 at the end of the year.

  31. 8000 Around 50% Retracement of Sep High.

    P.S
    Thanks Adam for your Help regarding S&p 500 MACD divergence it worked a treat. Made few pounds on FTSE100 index as I trade from England,also thanks regarding Gold late videos.

    1. I believe that the Dow will close out the year at 10291.35 to maybe up to the 10,300 level, but if I was to guess 1 no then 10,292.35 would be it.

  32. My best guess is 11,383 then watch out below. It should be lots of fun for us traders. BTW -- I used a combination of Fibs and found a rest area which I think will be the test of the DOW.

    Thanks for the opportunity.

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