Upsurge or Downturn - What’s coming next?

On one hand we have the U.S. GDP growing at its fastest rate in five years… upbeat factory data… a jump in consumer spending… and strong earnings reports from dozens of major players such as Pfizer, UPS, Archer Daniel Midlands, Cummins, and Alcoa.

On the other we’re facing soaring food, fuel, and commodity prices worldwide… a looming collapse of Portuguese and Spanish debt… a downgrade of Japan… protests in Egypt… and, some say, extreme over-confidence in U.S. stock markets – all of which hint at a MAJOR correction…

What does it all mean – are the markets poised to pick up a fresh leg of steam as the recovery continues… or are we on the verge of a painful, new downturn? As far as I’m concerned…neither possibility should play a part in deciding which trades you choose to make in the present moment.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Betting money on a future outcome is gambling, not trading.

Successful traders understand that trying to guess the future is a fool’s errand… they know the real key to keeping your profits flowing is to trade with the trend, not trying to predict it.

So, what should you do in response to the growing extremes of fervor and nervousness in the market… what impact should it have on your trades? Only two:

  1. Make sure you have your preferred type of protective measures in place – stops, hedges, exit plans, etc.
  2. Keep a close eye on the Trade Triangles as well your email inbox (for any email auto alerts you have set up in your MarketClub account) – taking appropriate action when and only when your indicators or alerts give you the signal

Of course, while it isn’t wise to let the possible future outcome of events dictate how you trade today, it is wise to talk about what’s happening and where it might lead us...

Discussing what might happen with others can reveal possibilities you may have overlooked – and allow you to watch for future trade opportunities you would otherwise have missed.

So, what do you think – are we reaching a turning point in the market? What impact do you think today’s events will have on the markets in the months ahead? What potential trades are you keeping an eye open for because of them?

I’d really like to hear what you have to say…

All the best to you,

Adam Hewison
President of
Co-founder of MarketClub

53 thoughts on “Upsurge or Downturn - What’s coming next?

  1. Hi Adam,

    First, thanks so much for changing the white letters to black in the green triangles. Those were very difficult for some of us to see. It did seem to take an extraordinary amount of time to accomplish it, but it is much appreciated.

    That said, I agree with those above who all seem to express the same concerns with the alerts. Maybe it's not as easy a fix as it would appear, but I think it would help to say that you agree (or disagree)that there ought to be a way for us to receive alerts referring only to changes in triangle color, and not that you are still kicking around what to do. The alerts to change are an extremely important part of the triangle system I would think. We need to know when those changes occur in order to follow the system...much as we do when there is an exit or entry signal for gold and you send out a notice - at least you used to I think.

    I also agree that it shouldn't be necessary to go back to the home page each time you need to look up another symbol. I don't think it's a deal breaker but it is really irritating and time consuming.

    Yes, you are a small company and it is difficult and expensive to grow. I hope most of us know and appreciate that. A suggestion might be to slow down a bit and take care of the "details" mentioned by so many others here, before trying to accomplish huge tasks such as developing a whole new portfolio system.

    Again, the care and concern you express in all the videos and blogs and webinars is very welcomed. It's obvious that you want us to be educated investors and that you want us all to do well. So I hope you don't take offense when we point out what we think are areas of concern.

    Thanks for all your efforts.

    1. Donn,

      Thanks for your thoughtful comments.

      The alerts are on the drawing board and we will do our best to make then better, more efficient and easier to use for all our members.

      All the best,


  2. Regarding what "might" happen: Chinese,Brazilian,Indian, and other EM markets suffering from rising interest rates to quell inflation may morf into problems in Australia as well. Resource trade in danger including international oils, silver,gold,ect. Inflationary pockets in "new normal" give way as discretionay income at consumer level squeezed and margins at corporate level decline.

    Dollar rally compounds problem. Oil not as strong as appears plottted against other commodities, indexes and currencies. Reach limits of natural growth rate of GNP at lower levels of interest rates than prior
    cycles. Liquidity hides potential pockets of insolvency.

  3. Thanks Adam for your reply. I've been communicating with Jeremy today about certain problems and other possible improvements to the system. I invite you to get a copy of my last e-mail to Jeremy.
    Thanks, Bob

  4. Jabalong, if you are talking Stock then the Monthly triangles determine the trend and the Weekly ones the exit and re-entry points. With Silver for example, I use the Weekly TT for the Trend and the Daily as the Exit/re-Entry.

    That aside, somebody in INO should have had the professionalism to respond to your query. I have, in the past requested that the Trendline drawing tool be modified to lose its irritating shadow but that has fallen on deaf ears, as has my problem of incorrect signals from the alerts. I guess they are suffering from downsizing because of the recession.

  5. I agree with your suggestion. I, also, want to know when we are talking about, say for example, a new weekly green triangle as oppose to a « repeat» weekly green triangle. A repeat weekly green triangle only tells me that we're still in an uptrend. I knew that upon the first green weekly triangle and now I only need to get an alert when a red weekly trade triangle comes up. I too I've talked about this suggestion in the past but falls on deaf ears. Sometimes I get the feeling that Market Club is not that interested in receiving constructive improvements to the system from those who use it every day for hours and hours. Hope somebody there can prove me wrong.

    1. Robert,

      Thank you for your feedback.

      Let me assure you that we are diligently working on many aspects of MarketClub to make it an even better service for our members. As you are aware we just rolled out our new portfolio manager which has been a huge hit with members.

      The alerts and the trade triangles which cover 258,000 symbols is a monumental amount of data. We are focusing on improving the alerts and how they are delivered. One of the ideas that is been kicked around is the idea of having the trade triangles built in to the portfolio manager. There's another idea for delivering them in a different fashion than when using now.

      So rest assured we not sitting back and ignoring member feedback. In fact nothing could be further from the truth. However great technology is not delivered in one day. It takes thousands of hours of programming and code to make things happen.

      We thank you for your business and for your patience and I'm comfortable in saying that both will be rewarded.

      All the best,

  6. Has anyone noticed the month long cycles in GLD, SLV, EWC and probably more since September? Is this QE2 leaking into the market or what?

    If they remain in place, prices should fade to the end of the month.

  7. These are the exact problems I brought up several times in the past. I thought I was only one seeing them. It's good to see that others are. Maybe they will get fixed eventually.

  8. Dear Adam,
    One day, when all the traders who ponder these questions least expect it, the markets will turn down, and keep making lower highs and lower lows for who knows how long. And your guess would be better than mine as to when that day will be. I don't even find it a very interesting question. I don't mean to be flippant, quite the opposite. I have traded the markets or been doing my home work there on for an average 14 hours a day, 5 days ac week for the last 7 years, and it has ceased to be meaningful to think about where the market will go.

    But this mucg I know for sure:-

    1. I do not know where the market will go; not in the next minue, or hour, or day, or week.
    2. I can not control the market, it will go where it will go, for as long as it wants.
    3. I do know only for sure at what level the market opens.
    4. I do know what I will do when the market does whatever it does.
    5. I do know what my long term edge is, and what gives it to me.


    Mike Cullen

  9. Multi month downturn, then a rally to new highs to finally top in Jan 2012, then downturn of EPIC proportions

  10. "Trade with the trend" So true. On another financial blog I occasionally tune into, everyone predicted doom and gloom last August. They sold everything and some even shorted the S and P using leveraged ETF's. This is why you have to turn off CNBC and throw out your newspaper. Despite the gloom and doom predictions, the market rallied incredibly and all these "experts" either missed out or lost their shirts.

    I show charts to my young daughter and she tells me which ones are going up. So I buy. At some point she says, "This one's not going up any more." So I sell. Doing this has allowed me to not only make a living from trading, but to use my money to finance entrepreneurs across the country.

    The next time an "expert" tells you what's going to happen tomorrow, please think of my little girl. I can guarantee you she's made more money in the last year than he has. And she and I only trade about 20 minutes per day because that's how long it takes to analyze everything, thanks to MarketClub.

    Predictions are for conversation. The trend is for making money.


  11. Yup, the frustrating thing about MarketClub is that it's got some significant obvious problems, which could be so easily fixed but nothing gets done about it no matter how much we talk about here. All we get is more talk. The alert problem is terrible, as is the omission of the trade triangles from the new Portfolio view. What's amazing is that the trade triangles are MarketClub's biggest selling points, yet it continuously mismanages them in the tools. It's mind-boggling really.

  12. You are so right! If I had listened to my broker in 3Q07 I would be in a far worse position right now. I said sell and pay down margin; he tried to talk me into not doing it. I only wish I had done it with the whole account.

    It's not to say that a (good) money manager has no place in your life. But I learned a) educate yourself enough so you can evaluate your broker's decisions and b) don't let any one person or institution manage all your money.

    Good luck / skill to you; I think you are on the right track.

  13. When all the sheeple sucker retail is back in the rosy hyperinflated market and buy at the top jp morgan and friends turn out the lights and go short. minor corrections here and there with inflated market so when you hear everyone is in it's time to get out. rumor is wed starts a minor correction for 2 weeks followed by another rally

  14. Double off the 666 lows for the S&P 500 based on what exactly? Fraud, lies & scams? Great investment backdrop......

    I'm in!

  15. I wonder if the M,W,D Triangles are showing similar signals on Silver (SLV)as they do on Gold (GLD)? Does one stand aside, at present, on Silver as well?

  16. Amen, brother. My complaints fall on deaf ears. Alerts are uselss with regard to triangle changes.

  17. Thanks Jeremy for your explanation. I will look back further at the trend and the triangles and also study your strategy for short term trading of gold.

  18. The rise in the stock market is most likely the result of the federal reserves printing of money. Since not all trading methods are trend-following, this will have differing impacts on traders strongly correllated to each trader's particular style.

  19. Bernanke is committed to QE. He even admits, "see, the S&P is at 1300", I am a genius. I hope the S&P tanks and takes him with it.

  20. are you sure ISM is worth anything.

    The survey gives three possible responses - fast, no change, slower. Therefore results are unspecific.
    The index is not rigorous - respondants answers are unaudited, qualitative and subjective.
    The index leaves out employment costs, which are a large portion of manufacturing costs.

    asking 400 people once a month if things are better, the same or worse

    sounds like the answer to an economists dream

  21. It's just a matter of time as it's been forever, protect your profits,run with the big three,follow your triangles and the trends. IT WILL correct it ALWAYS does don't panic but always be prepared,and everything will be fine. Truthfully I'm for hiring all the Walmart people to run the government, they know how to run a business, and they don't fail, like the post office, fanny,freddy,medicare, and on and on ALL Failures, all government programs. AMEN !

  22. It's definitely a crossroads. A stock market fueled largely by Mr. Bernanke's fueling inflation by issuing short and long term notes and buying them back. Whether that's called Monetization or Quantitative Easing, its a natural followup to the huge production and issuance of currency for stimulus and bailouts. This extended use of Keynesian philosophy puts a whole new and far greater meaning to Fiat Currency's ability to undergo endless issuance.

    If it is true that endless amounts of currency can be created and issued without repercussions and the Stock Market will survive the next blast of found debt CDS failures from Fannie or more stupid use of that private market from Wall ST; we may be home free!

    I do know the rich are richer and the poor is far poorer and the middle class is disappearing.

  23. Doug, creating UI that works for everyone isn't as easy as you might think. The UI for adding stocks works pretty darn well actually.

    Bulk adding is a feature that could be added, but that doesn't make the existing UI unusable.

    Trust me when I tell you that if you've never worked on usability, you have NO idea how difficult it can be.

    RE the alerts system, Adam I could implement the updates people have asked for in this thread in less than a week. You guys need to lean on the talents of your user base as your development team (which does do good work) is clearly swamped.

  24. Why does anybody consider GDP as useful statistic? That number is so inflated with debt that it would be impossible to separate the real change in domestic product versus debt spending.

    The real numbers to watch are the internals to the ISM. Manufacturing is one of the only "tangible" drivers of growth and stability left.



  26. I believe the answer to your question is very simple: Look at a 20 year Dow chart an put some Trade Triangles on it! I see the Dow and the S&P forming massive multi-year head and shoulders patterns. The Fed pump effect has to end sometime.

  27. I agree with the comments about the e-mail alerts being redundant. I used to get "alert" when I saw an email announcing a new Trade Triangle, only to find on looking at the chart that the Triangle is not new at all. This doesn't serve as an alert to a possible trade, it's just junk in the email in-box.

    While I'm on a roll here, my other main complaint since the recent changes to the system is the lack of ability to simply enter a symbol and get a chart. Once you are in Portfolio view, you have to go to the main menu to simply enter a symbol.

    While Market Club has helped me with my trading, these two irritations really detract from the experience. They also seem to be very easy to fix.

  28. Hi Terry:

    I agree with your comments. Many years ago the best Chairman of the Fed, William McChesney Martin, said that the role of the Fed is "To Take the Punch Bowl Away When the Party Gets to Wild." It appears that current Fed Chairman Bernanke rather than taking the punch bowl away, has decided to fill it with Vodka.

    Sooner or later there will be a price to pay.



  29. I too had to turn off the alerts because of constant repeating. Also, could they have made entering stocks into the my portfolio any harder. Manually entering them one at a time is rediculous. Doug

  30. We are in a depression. Job participation rate is only going down. The UK is already back in recession, Europe crisis has only just begun, munibonds sell-off, Baltic Dry index in decline since 3 months, etc. etc. etc. There's a whole flock of black swans out there and some are already biting. The future is quiet obvious. There's no way we are in a recovery. So I definitely disagree that betting on future outcome is gambling. This time it isn't. It will get much worse. The underlying problems have not been solved.

    The further the stock market goes up the harder it will go down. We are in a rally within a longer-term bear market rally. We haven't even seen this long term bear market's bottom yet. Check out Tim Wood on Financial Sense for more info on Dow Theory. Tim has been spot on in his calls.

  31. PS: the GDP and UNEMPLOYMENT figures are a crock! Don't drink the KoolAid!
    Be informed, be prepared ...

  32. I agree with Butch that there is a euphoria about the markets right now. Doesn't that mean to watch's about to take a significant drop. I only hope that it is temporary.

  33. Yes...good basic Human 'greed' is obvious now ,which is showing in the DJ etc..the ruling class is powering up the stock market for the reversal that they are all going to be short with,and all the suckers will be left broke......history will always repeat itself!!!

  34. I agree, Adam ....

    I see further movement, generally upwards ... For a while. Thing is, most companies posting great profits are doing so because they have tightened the belt. But, you can only cut so much, fire so many, reign in so far, and then ... If the buying/selling isn't there, then there is stagnation. Reality will hit, probably 2nd Q onwards!

    Things have to normalize, so unless investing in companies with large international markets, there will be a downwards movement. The only question I see is, how soon, how fast, how far?

  35. Well, I see a bear around the corner, but I found myself having to close some shorts this AM -- moved too soon, yet again. The flood of bearish articles this morning (well above the norm in my news sources) seems almost a contrarian indicator. Either a whole bunch of people just "got it" or....

    Euphoria is usually a sign of the end of an uptrend, because it means everyone goes all in, and there are no buyers left when the first batch want to sell...When I start seeing parabolic blow-off rises, I think it's time to consider getting out before the exit ramp gets too crowded, myself.

    But I agree with Adam too - let the trade triangles guide you, and most should use some kind of stops. My strategy when I think it's about time to get out of a long is to use a fairly tight trailing stop -- so if I'm a little early, I still make a little more on the trade, and if I'm right -- I still do well. Going for that last little bit of profit tends to be quite dangerous if things turn and the euphoria collapses -- that's always faster than going the other way.

  36. "Successful traders understand that trying to guess the future is a fool’s errand…"

    Adam, I love you and think you're a good man. Your statement is correct - as far as it goes. Yes, good traders don't look too far ahead. But investors? Ah, that's a very different story. Looking beyond the horizon is exactly what successful investors do. That's what defines the difference between 'investors' and 'traders'.

  37. Dear Adam,
    My congratulations for being and showing discipline of trading. But one thing we all forget is the looming U.S. debt and rising commodity prices, can U.S. be too far behind Japan in downgrade? How long can printing money by bernanke & company work. If it is so easy to get out of debt by printing money why are the european nations following austerity? How long can dollor retain it's value and status? Only time will tell. It will be a miracle if U.S can print it's way out of this debt issue.

  38. Common sense and history tell us that the market should pull back since we have been in a up-market since September of last year, more than 6 months. In view of these factors, I have tightened the stops on my portfolio. Most stocks I have bought since January '11 have been on a side ways trajectory. Jean Rene

  39. I am a novice at this. Professionals of all types who I have entrusted to do my investing for me have been inconsistent with their results. Disillusion becomes paramount and shying away from market investing seems to be a good choice. Yet, since I have joined Market Club and consider all the advice and comments, it seems personal investing with caution may be worth a try. Following Adam's advice "Successful traders understand that trying to guess the future is a fool’s errand… they know the real key to keeping your profits flowing is to trade with the trend, not trying to predict it." is likely the way to go. Professional brokers seem to have difficulty adhering to this for the benefit of the individual investor. I was told once by a sage financial investor that an individual can do much better investing on his own than having a large firm do it for him. I think he is right. The catch is it probably takes education and a bit of effort to have reasonable success.

  40. Hi Adam,
    I am a trial member here and have been looking at the charts for gold (I am in the jewelry business and buy and sell gold all the time). I would think that Gold would be going higher, and clearing $1400 again but it keeps trading in a tight range. My question is in regards to the triangles. Why do we see green triangles and then the price goes down? I am still waiting for an answer from Melissa, but nothing. Since this chart is the most important to me as well as USD/JPY it will the major reason for becoming a full time member. Look forward to your answer or Melissas. Thank you.

    1. Mark,

      Keep in mind that we are not day-trading or intra-day trading with MarketClub. Gold prices have to hit certain levels and requirements to signal entry/exit points for a short/long position according to our algorithm. You will see days where we have exited or gone short and the market makes a move up. It's not uncommon to see a move up after we exit, but most times the downward trend will continue as we are looking for a longer term. Below is our Strategy for Short-term trading Gold, as you see we are not using the daily Triangles to trade. You need to have both the weekly and daily correspond with each other.

      Weekly Triangles determine trend and possible entry points.
      Daily Triangles determine timing: exits, entries and re-entries.

      The last triangle issued on the weekly chart should always be used to identify the overall trend. You can also use the weekly triangle as a potential entry point if you can get into the market within the last 3 trading days of the signal. Then you are to look at the daily triangles for possible exit and re-entry points, or entry points if your weekly is in a steady trend.

      Key Rule: always trade with the trend. Make sure your weekly and daily triangles correspond in direction.


  41. Thank you Adam, I agree with your comments, there is a euphoria about the markets right now, so I'm anticipating a continued up trend.

  42. ""Successful traders understand that trying to guess the future is a fool’s errand… they know the real key to keeping your profits flowing is to trade with the trend, not trying to predict it.""

    That's a given. Of course trader want to trade WITH the trend, but the problem is where is the trend going tomorrow? The Trend tends to change course on a dime.

  43. The manner in which GDP,CPI,Employment,Unemployment,PMI, and virtually all economic reports are calculated and the lack of consistency with past calculation methods make most of them worthless as indicators. They are, however, very useful tools with which to guide the sheeple towards the greater good (for DC and Wall Street).

  44. I can't help but think that we are seeing an A, B, C retracement in metals and we are getting ready for Part 2 of the next leg down and then a bounce and another leg before we shoot for new highs. Adam, you had a video a few months back that showed a period of 18-22 months in between higher lows and the next high in metals. It could be a good time to revisit that chart.

    I do expect more from rising energy this year and then metals will kick back in later on. Food prices are probably going up this year as well.

    As the public usually gets it wrong, and there is a lot of talk about gold out there, i suspect we are ready for a contrarian move downwards. Then people will get shaken out, hate metals and we should be buying hand over fist.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Dr. Joe

  45. QE is responsible for the huge rise in commodity prices, prompted by a handful of fundamentals. Where else would the Banks with their $2 Trillion line of credit put their cheap money? Of course, the Stock markets because they don't trust paper money and T Bonds so much.

    The rolling 60 year commodity cycle had a major peak in January 1951 and that means we are due a crash in the prices about now.

    Once the phoney money stops flowing, the markets will react and sell off a cliff. I would not be investing in anything right now. Cash is King.

  46. "Keep a close eye on the Trade Triangles as well your email inbox (for any email auto alerts you have set up in your MarketClub account)..."

    This would be nice if the alerts actually told us when a new triangle is in play, rather than swamping us in alert emails telling us about new scores on existing triangles.

    This issue is more than a year old and is so easy to fix (just make an option for alerts on changes in triangles - or at least add the word "NEW" in the subject line on existing alerts where the triangle has actually change). This has all been discussed a long time ago, but no progress.

    I've long since had to turn off my alerts as it just turned into a pile of spam and too much trouble trying to dig through them for new triangles. I'd happily give them another shot if you can fix this issue.

  47. Hi Adam,
    Excellent question!

    My take is that the US economy has finally found the bottom FOR NOW, well the housing market has not recovered but in no less than a year it could, so this could be the true bottom for the housing

    We have inflation but Criminal Reserve Cartel's take is that we don't need food and/or energy to survive while we are working harder for our hard earned money and the employer is not going to able to increase
    the pay just so it could keep up with the true rate of inflation.

    On the other hand AGAIN the Criminal Reserve Cartel is destroying my currency with the help of my economically challenged government, so as the result of that the stock market will keep on going up
    so it can keep up with the rate of devaluation of US dollar, we don't want our friends and certainly our
    enemies to become the owner of our military industries, but again the market can go up so much and it will not be able to keep up with rate that US is going to be falling (re-valuating).
    So yes, we are having a Upsurge that will be followed by a MAJOR down surge and who knows what else it will take down with it!

    Not a pretty picture!

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