Are You A Superstitious Trader?

Your poll said no...

The Wall Street Journal claims that Shanghai's market runs off superstition – most notably Chinese investors that buy stocks on the favorability of numbers that contain 8s. This superstitious Shanghai market was the alleged trigger (among other things) of the February 2007's “Dow Dive” of 416 points.

AOL's Money & Finance “Blogging Stocks” sites a Chinese investor, Yan Caign, who bought 30,000 shares of a cement company, Jilin Yatai Co., because of a “lucky” ticker number than contained double 8s [60088]. Shortly after, his shares tripled and he walked away with $50,000 under the sheer belief that the double 8s brought him luck.

Instead of using tools like SmartScan, should we use a Jinga board to pick potential markets? Why is Shanhai's market so based around luck?

Blogging Stock's, Peter Cohan says we must look at who's doing the trading to truly understand why. In the US, the majority of trading is done by large financial institutions that use sophisticated fundamental and technical analysis. However, 60-80% of Chinese investors are individuals who gamble on numerical superstitions, with little understanding of concepts from the financial arena.

So in the US markets, we are not known to use superstition in our trading, but I am sure that we all make small behavior modifications when sitting down in front of the computer screen. Jeff White of The Stock Bandit claims that although he is not superstitious, he will never have a sports car as his PC wallpaper. He said that his cold streaks were either to blame on the computer wallpaper, or his over-eagerness to earn the money for that dream ride on the screen.

We asked Traders Blog visitors if, as traders, they were superstitious.

We heard you scream no.

But, if holding my breath, while wearing a necklace of garlic and humming the National Anthem makes me $50,000 within a matter of minutes... you can bet I'd do it.

Understanding Momentum

Listen to MP3 and Follow Along in PDF Workbook as Gary Smith Discusses Momentum


Seminar Topic: Gary's presentation details his favorite momentum patterns from past actual trades, V-bottom upside reversals, late day upside price surges, extreme momentum days, Friday-To-Monday momentum and momentum break patterns, 1% true selling days and (his favorite), divergence patterns in the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000.

He also shows you how he uses various sentiment indicators to determine how aggressively to trade these patterns. He discusses the mental and financial realities of trading for a living. Lastly, he details some of the tape reading techniques he uses for intraday trading and how he believes that the real money in trading comes from the trends that extend beyond intraday. Although this session is older, the techniques can still be applied to current practices.

 

    Covers:

  • Technical Indicators
  • Pure Price Action
  • Momentum Patterns
  • Trading Weapons
  • Mutual Fund Trading Strategies
  • Trading Stock Index Futures
  • Realizing a Realistic Return                     

 

Gary Smith is a trading maverick who, in his thirty-three year trading career, has learned to shun much of conventional trading analysis, including chart analysis, oscillators, moving averages, waves, cycles, and even computers, as pure fiction. He trades in reaction to market changes as they occur, not after the fact when they can be measured by traditional analytical tools.

                                                                           PDF Work Book (Follow Along with MP3)
                                                                                                                               
                                                                                                 Listen to Seminar w/ Smith

        Enjoy,


  

Do You Know The INTRINSIC Value of Your Stocks?

I was searching around the net for a morning read and a ran into The Financial Whiz. Like a regular blog user I first went to the WHO section. I like to feel like I can connect with the writer. Well to my surprise the blog, spreadsheets and articles were produced by a senior Finance Major at Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Bryan. This young guy already has seven years of trading under his belt, with knowledge in stocks, fixed income instruments, options and forex. Below is a post he made on June 9th and I thought that this may be of interested to MarketClub members and guests. Visit his blog by clicking on the logo above this paragraph.

[Courtesy of The Financial Whiz . com...]

One of the approaches that the Indiana University of Pennsylvania Student Managed Investment Portfolio utilizes to value companies is known as the Comparable Ratio Valuation. This method uses a spreadsheet that I developed last year in allowing a potential investment to be compared against its closet competitors to find a company’s “intrinsic value.” While this approach may ignore fundamental flaws in a company’s business model, it gives an investor a good base to start analyzing potential stocks to invest in.

To download a copy of the valuation spreadsheet model, please visit: http://www.iupsmip.com/component/
option,com_remository/Itemid,36/func,startdown/id,100/

In the above spreadsheet example, an analysis of Amgen (AMGN) was done and the spreadsheet ultimately found the company to be trading at a discount of about 19% to its peers.

This spreadsheet is not the only determining factor in an investment decision; the sheet is preliminary a tool to analyze and identify stocks that will require more detailed research before a final decision can be made. The twenty minutes that it takes to input the numbers into the spreadsheet will save you roughly two hours or more compiling due diligence. In a future post, I will present the SMIP’s fundamental analysis worksheet that must be completed prior to the company being presented to the team.

At first, the spreadsheet is somewhat difficult to maneuver, but I will guide you through the process.

The areas highlighted in green are areas that will require you to input information to be used in compiling the intrinsic value of the company.

Company Inputs Section:

The data to be used here can be found at the links provided, but when analyzing a different company, please replace the ticker symbol with that of your company.

Item

Can Be Found at

Price Per Share:
$56.94

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=
AMGN

EPS (Earnings Per Share): $4.41

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=
AMGN
under the Earnings Est section, I tend to use the Next Year Average Earnings Estimate

Growth Rate:
11.2%

the bottom of the page of the following link http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=
AMGN
under the Growth Est, in this figure I tend to use the next 5 years prediction.

Market Cap:
$66,030.0

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=
AMGN
, where the figure is $66.03 Billion, which the figure that should be used in the spreadsheet should be in millions, therefore, billions would appear in thousands. If a company had a market cap of $500 million, it should be inputted as 500.00 into the spreadsheet.

Sales:
$14,740.00

the Key Statistics in the Income Statement section at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/
ks?s=AMGN
under Revenue (ttm). This number should be listed in the spreadsheet in millions.

Book Value
per Share: $17.01

the bottom of the page at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under the Balance Sheet section.

Cashflow per
Share: $3.49

http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/
jsp/finance/compinfo/Ratios.jsp?
tkr=AMGN
under the Latest 12 Month
Data in the middle of the page, this
is a dollar amount per share.

Shares Outstanding (mil): 1,160.00

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under the Share Statistics
section, this number should also be
listed as in millions.

EBITDA (mil):
$6,480.00

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under the Income Statement section, this number should be listed in millions.

Enterprise Value
(mil): $68,610.00

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under Valuation Measures section, this should be listed in millions.

PEG Ratio: 1.23

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=
AMGN
under Valuation Measures section, this should be listed as is.


AMGN Competitors Section:

To get a good start on which companies to use as your comparable analysis, you should visit http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=AMGN and http://finance.google.com/finance?q=AMGN and look under the Related Companies section. You want to find a sample of 5-6 related companies to input their valuation ratios to value your company. When selecting companies to use as comparables, you should look for companies that have a market cap above $250 million.

I will give an example of how to collect the information for the first competitor on the list BAX, Baxter International. You will need to collect the following information:

Item

Can Be Found at

P/E Ratio: 24.8

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the Forward P/E under the Valuation Measures

PEG Ratio: 1.72

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the PEG Ratio under Valuation Measures

P/S Ratio (Price to Sales): 3.48

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the Price to Sales Ratio under Valuation Measures

EV/EBITDA: 14.32

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the Enterprise Value/EBITDA under Valuation Measures

Price/
Cashflow: 17.7

http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/
finance/compinfo/Ratios.jsp?tkr=BAX
under the Latest 12 Month Data section towards the bottom, this is a ratio and what you are looking for is Price/Cashflow Ratio

Price/Book: 5.6

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BAX as the Price/Book Ratio under Valuation Measures

After this step, repeat the above processes for the other 4-5 competitors. If the ratio is not available for a company, just leave that section blank so it will not be used in the valuation calculation. If one company’s ratio is an outlier as compared to the other companies in the spreadsheet, consider leaving that section blank so it will not give an artificially high intrinsic value.

The Intrinsic Price Calculation:

The spreadsheet then takes the average of the 5-6 competitors’ ratios and then applies those ratios to the information provided about the main company under analysis. It then gives a price of the company for each of the valuation ratios: Price/Earnings, PEG, Price/Sales, EV/EBITDA, Price/Cashflow, and Price/Book. All of the prices that are given from those ratios are then averaged together to give the “Average Intrinsic Price”, which is then compared to the current stock price. Finally, a percentage drawn from these calculations shows if the company is overvalued or undervalued—and by how much it is. If the percentage is positive, then the company is undervalued as compared to its peers, and if the percentage is negative, then the company is overvalued.

I hope you enjoy as much as I did!

Email me with any ideas, questions, or comments.

Lindsay Bittinger


li*****@in*.com











My MarketClub Book Report


More Insight on
Stops & Money Management

On Friday I posted a seminar by Joe Ross on Stops. I am very curious about stops like so many other members of Marketclub and the guests that visit our blog. I was looking at the selection of trading books that we have at our office as well as searching the internet for more insights on stops and money management... here's what I found.

The Stock Bandit had a review on a book called "Pit Bull" by Marty Schwartz. Jeff White, President of Stock Bandit, listed quotes from the book... particularly noted the portion of "Pit Bull" entitled "Honor Thy Stop."

I found this quote very powerful, "... a stop is an investment in self-preservation because if you're wrong, it saves you those extra dollars that you'd lose by hanging onto a losing position. It keeps you from digging the hole deeper and makes it easier for you to climb back out."

I also ran into another piece by Mr. Joe Ross. Trading Educators had this book reviewed as a "must see." They say that Ross "emphasizes the how, why, and when of stop loss and profit protecting stop placement." In the book he also explains hedging positions, identifies his methods for identifying trends and sites ways to breakout from congestion. See all of Trading Educators book reviews.


It is also a rare known fact that MarketClub (parent company INO.com) has a plethora of trading books by various gurus. We don't make a point of advertising our collection, however we do sometimes sell these books to make room for future inventory. These prices are the lowest price you are likely to find over the net... be please keep in mind we have a limited quantity.

Only $10.00 per book + Shipping and Handling

Contact Melissa at 1-800-538-7424 or

me*****@in*.com











for purchase inquiries


"Starting Out In Futures Trading (5th Edition) " By - Mark J. Powers

"The Day Trader - From The Pit to The PC" By - Lewis J. Boresellino

"The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders" By- Jack D. Swchwager

"The New Options Secret: Volatility" By - David L. Caplan

"Trading 101 -
How To Trade Like A Pro" By- Sunny J. Harris

Stops - Where Do You Place Your Stops?

I promised MarketClub member, Tommy Beard that I would release this today...

Here is Joe Ross's Seminar on "STOPS"

Joe Ross, an active professional trader, author, and educator, is president of Ross Trading International . He holds a degree in business administration from U.C.L.A. He is best known as the inventor of the Ross hook. He has written Trading by the Book, Trading by the Minutes, and Trading is a Business.

In the workbook below, Joe raises the question, "Where Do You Place The Stop?" You will learn which specific items are important to consider for stop placement. You will learn several techniques for placing protective, objective, entry and exit stops. You will learn to place stops based upon natural support and resistance and volatility. You will be taught about small profit objective stops and full profit objective stops. You will learn how to properly trail stops and how to increase the size or your protective stops using OPM. Joe shows you how to "curve fit" market volatility, and how and when to use Fibonacci expansions for objective stops.

Learn about:

  • Mechanical Stops: As dictated by mechanized trading systems.
  • Protective Stops: To protect against loss, or to protect profits.
  • Entry Stops: To initiate a trade.
  • Exit Stops: To terminate a trade.

Also Learn About Stops Considerations based around:

  • The size of the margin account
  • Margin requirements
  • Individual psychological and emotional tolerance
  • You economic tolerance for loss
  • The number of existing open positions already held
  • Market volatility
  • The rate of trade
  • The tick size

Read about this and more in Joe Ross's work book, "Stops- Where Do You Place The Stops?"

Listen to Joe Ross on "Stops"
Follow Along In Workbook

"The point I'm trying to make here is that a lot of traders end up stopping themselves out of a market when there is no need." -Joe Ross


Enjoy,