Category: General

5 Reasons To Still Be Bearish

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Please enjoy this updated version of weekly commentary from the Reitmeister Total Return newsletter. Steve Reitmeister is the CEO of StockNews.com and Editor of the Reitmeister Total Return.

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The recent rally in stocks (SPY) has been impressive. But it is still officially a bear market and there are 5 reasons that bears will not be waving a white flag soon. Lets review why stocks rallied… why they are likely to stall at this level… and the 5 reasons why the bearish argument will likely win the day.

Stocks have been rising nearly unabated for 2 months. A lot of that was because it was easy for stocks to “climb the wall of worry” created by the initial decline into bear market territory.

Meaning that it was fairly easy to find just enough silver linings or things not going as bad as advertised for stocks to bounce from that recent bottom. However, as we are finding out now… all good things must end.

Meaning that investors finally found resistance at the 200 day moving average of the S&P 500 (SPY) at 4,326 and retreated quickly from that mark into the finish line on Tuesday. Expect this level to denote the near term highs for the market as we likely enter a consolidation period with trading range to follow.

Why? And what is the parameters of this trading range? And what will cause us to break out of the range?

Market Commentary

Technically speaking… we are still in a bear market. That certainly is confusing to many investors given several weeks of upward price action. So let me spell it out for y’all.

The definition of a bull market is when you come out of a bear market and have risen 20% from the bottom. Well the recent bottom for the S&P 500 (SPY) is 3,636.87 and yet yesterday we closed at 4,305.20 which is 18.38% above the lows. Continue reading "5 Reasons To Still Be Bearish" →

Chesapeake Energy All in on Natural Gas

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Forget oil—the real money is in natural gas.

Or at least that’s the message coming from a pioneer of the U.S. shale revolution, Chesapeake Energy (CHK).

From Prince to Pauper to Prince Again?

Once upon a time—when its stock was valued at more than $35 billion and its CEO, Aubrey McClendon, had the biggest pay package of any CEO of a listed firm—Chesapeake Energy was America’s best-known fracker.

But those glory days disappeared quickly, and Chesapeake became the poster child for the shale sector’s excesses.

About a year and a half ago, in the autumn of 2020, Chesapeake was in the midst of bankruptcy proceedings after the coronavirus pandemic-led crash in energy demand proved to be the final straw in the company’s fall from grace.

And for the industry more broadly, the prospects for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports were looking bleak after a $7 billion contract to supply the French utility Engie went down the tubes on concerns over the emissions profile of U.S. natural gas.

Fast forward to 2022 and the picture has changed dramatically. Natural gas exports are booming!

Thanks to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions, Europe is in the middle of an energy crisis. It is buying up as much American LNG as it can. Those concerns about emissions are long forgotten.

In the first four months of the year, the U.S. exported 11.5 billion cubic feet a day of gas in the form of LNG, an 18% increase from 2021. Three-quarters of those exports went to Europe. And European leaders have pledged to ratchet up their imports by the end of the decade. There is also a massive opportunity in Asia, where LNG demand is set to quadruple to 44 billion cubic feet a day by 2050, according to a recent report released by think-tank, the Progressive Policy Institute.

And even here in the U.S., natural gas supplies look set to be tight this winter. Hot summer weather and high demands for power generation are sucking up supplies and leaving storage precariously low. Continue reading "Chesapeake Energy All in on Natural Gas" →

2 REITs to Buy and Hold

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Despite the macroeconomic headwinds, real estate investment trusts (REITs) are expected to remain resilient due to rising demand, appreciation of property prices amid the high inflation, and increasing rental income. Moreover, REITs are considered ideal investments in uncertain market conditions since they pay out at least 90% of their income as dividends.

So, quality REITs LTC Properties (LTC) and Getty Realty (GTY) could be ideal investments to survive the short-term market fluctuations and create solid long-term returns.

High inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainties have discouraged home buyers this year. However, increased regional population distribution, rising demand for rental properties, and appreciating property prices bode well for real estate investment trusts (REITs).

In addition, the inclination of businesses toward local sourcing after the pandemic is expected to drive further growth in this sector. The real estate sector in the United States is projected to grow at a 3.7% CAGR to $412.60 billion by 2025.

Moreover, REITs are considered safe investments in uncertain times since they must pay at least 90% of their taxable income as dividends.

Fundamentally sound REITs LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC) and Getty Realty Corporation (GTY) could offer diversification, inflation hedge, and superior dividend returns to long-term investors.

LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC)

LTC invests in senior housing and healthcare properties. It invests in four broad segments: Skilled Nursing centers (SNF); Assisted Living Facilities (ALF); Independent Living Facilities (ILF); and Memory Care facilities (MC). Its operations include sale-leasebacks, mortgage financing, joint ventures, construction financing, and structured financing solutions. Continue reading "2 REITs to Buy and Hold" →

3 Stocks Trading Near 52-Week Highs

Posted on by The INO.com Team

So far this year, the stock market has flashed more red signs than green due to various macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns. The immense volatility weighed heavily on equities and government bond yields.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) gained 29.5% year-to-date.

However, the major stock indexes rose in the last trading session to end their best month since 2020, slashing some losses from a gloomy first half of the year. The S&P 500 gained 9.1% in July, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 6.7%, reflecting their strongest month since November 2020. The Nasdaq Composite rose 12.4%, marking its best month since April 2020.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, said, “We are seeing a relief rally in the stock market, as pessimism reached extreme levels, and as longer-term interest rates have been coming back down.”

Optimistic expectations from the upcoming earnings releases have also encouraged investors to take a breather from the idea of a slowing economy and further interest rate hikes.

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH), and Greif, Inc. (GEF) are hovering near their 52-week highs and could be the ideal additions to your watchlist now given their strong fundamentals and momentum. Continue reading "3 Stocks Trading Near 52-Week Highs" →

An Oil Stock to Ride Out the Looming Recession

Posted on by The INO.com Team

At the moment, the oil market is much like the famous quote from the beginning of “A Tale of Two Cities.”

It is a tale of two markets: the futures market for oil (controlled by Wall Street) and the physical market, which reflects the real-world demand for oil. Both factor in many dynamics inputs, notably whether we’re actually heading into a recession.

Which Tale to Believe?

The price of oil dropped by about $15 a barrel in a few days in the futures market, thanks to recession worries. That pushed the global benchmark Brent crude oil price below $100 per barrel for the first time since April.

However, in the real world, there is no sign of a slowdown in demand for oil. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.

Premiums for the immediate delivery of oil are at record levels. For example, Nigerian Qua Iboe crude oil was offered at $11.50 a barrel above Brent, while North Sea Forties crude was bid at Brent-plus-$5.35—both all-time highs!

Here in the U.S., WTI-Midland and WTI at East Houston traded in June at a more than a $3 premium to U.S. crude futures, the highest in more than two years. And though both grades of oil have since edged off those highs, they are still trading more than 60% higher than at the start of June. Continue reading "An Oil Stock to Ride Out the Looming Recession" →