Turkeys, Trillions and Thanksgiving

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Have you ever built or remodeled a house? If you have, then you know that it always takes longer and cost twice as much as you first estimated. This is exactly the position that the US government has put itself in, only this time the house is the whole country. Now we have to gut the country and totally redo everything. It's likely to take twice as much time and cost US taxpayers twice as much money to get out of this recession.

Do you know how many zeros there are in a trillion dollars? I really didn't know myself, as that is way above my pay scale. So, I looked it up on Google and there are 12 zeros behind the 1. When this mess is all over, we will be lucky if the government doesn't spend 5 trillion dollars (5,000,000,000,000) to get everything back to some form of normalcy in the US markets.

We are continually seeing new people being trotted out in front of the cameras and microphone saying that this bailout is going to cost $700 billion and something else is going to cost $350 billion. I have a deep suspicion that they have no clue and no belief in what they are saying or doing. It's also amazing to me that the people that got us into this mess in the first place on now in charge of getting us out of this mess. This does not seem like a very smart idea to me.

One of the most interesting things about the markets is that they never tell you when a bottom is in place until much later. I think that the many economic problems that are currently sitting on the back burner, will warrant this market to continue its slide to the downside. If you haven't seen my video, "How Low Can The Dow Go," I recommend that you check it out.

The technical outlook for the stock market remains negative in my opinion. There's a great deal of overhead resistance in this market which leads me to believe we will still see further downside erosion. Unlike a bull market that constantly needs to have positive inputs like earnings and positive outlooks, a bear market simply can fall on its own weight.

One thing we rely on to tell us when the market switches gears from a negative to a positive trend is our "Trade Triangle" technology. Presently all of our "Trade Triangles" are in a negative mode for all the indices, and show little or no signs of turning up.

So what's an investor to do?

Do you buy and hold because it looks cheap? That is not the way I believe you want to trade this market. The closest parallel we have to this market is the crash of 1929 and the bear market that lasted into the early '30s. We've only been in this crisis mode for a little over a year and I believe we have a way to go before the recovery begins.

We still have a downside projection for the DOW at 6,600 and we see little or no reason to change that technical target at this time.

Make no mistake about it, these are difficult times for many people, and many people will lose their jobs before business and the markets pick up. There's still the mess with General Motors (NYSE_GM), Ford (NYSE_F) and Chrysler to take care of. How much is that going to cost? In my opinion, the auto industry has been in decline and denial since the '70s, and any money that is given to them is like throwing money down a rat hole unless there is a major new business plan and a severe downsizing of those industries.

No matter what rough times lay ahead, keep the faith, keep your head down and the computer on, because there are some great trading opportunities that I know will be coming up soon in the marketplace.

From all of our staff both at INO.com and MarketClub, we wish you success in the future. To all of our American friends and clients, we wish you a very Happy Thanksgiving. We still have a lot to be thankful for in this world.

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

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Something to remember in times like these.

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Bad Trades

A bad trade is like a dead fish: The longer you keep it, the worse it stinks.

Good Trades

When a trade is making money, the market is telling them they are right and to let the position ride.

Don't ever do this ...

Winners don't add to, or "average", losing positions. They dump the trade and go looking for a new opportunity. Successful investors may add to the winning trades. When ahead, they press their advantage while remembering that at any time the market can turn on them and prove them wrong.

In trading keep your mind clear and do not get emotional about a trade. Remember you are not married to a stock rather you are in the dating game.

Learn more about common sense trading.

Adam Hewison

Co-founder of MarketClub

Is gold the last store of value?

Posted on by The INO.com Team

Is gold the last store of value?

It has been a difficult time for gold bugs for the past two months as gold has been trapped in a broad trading range which made it seem insulated and immune to all of the financial chaos around it. Today's action on Friday the 21st, put all of that in action to rest as gold soared to trade over the $800 in a matter of hours. This may be the move we've been looking for and coming from a two-month base, it seems large enough to propel this market higher.

I have just finished a new video on gold that goes into some depth and shows you potential upside targets for this market. The video can be played on any computer and does not need any special plug-in. It is available free of charge from MarketClub as part of our ongoing educational outreach program. Our goal is to help traders improved the timing and trade selection in a scientific way using tools that are real world tested and have stood the test of time.

Enjoy the video,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Traders Toolbox: Money Management Part 2 of 4

Posted on by lindsay

Crucial but often overlooked, money management practices can mean the difference between winning and losing in the markets.

-Amount Of Money To Risk- It's difficult to come up with hard and fast money to risk on different markets and trades. For our purpose, though, it's best to think conservatively. Although some studies suggest initially allocating equity in broad terms of original margin (40% to 50% of total equity committed to the markets at a given time in the form of original margin, 15% to a particular market, 5% to a single trade, etc.), many traders consider these percentages too high, and do not consider the market to be a accurate measure of risk or a sound basis on which to allocate funds, because a trader can always, technically, lose more than the margin amount. These traders find it more beneficial to think in terms of the actual money amount they are willing to lose on any particular trade or trades, determined by their stop level or through some other calculation.

Although in specific circumstances professional traders may actually risk comparable or even greater percentages of total equity than those listed previously, on average they risk much less-perhaps 12% to 20% of total capital at a time, and 2% - 4% per trade. Depending on the size of your trading account, these levels might seem overly strict, but again, the idea is to conserve money for the long haul.

In developing your trading goal, determine how much you could accept losing on a trade, both financially and psychologically. Based on total capital and the number of markets in which you are active, allocate your equity proportionally between individual trade, market group and total trading activity levels.

These guidelines protect you from dangers of extreme leverage in the futures markets. Though it may seen attractive to have the change to make big money on a small initial investment, the risk of loss is just as great.

-Determining Reward/Risk Ratios- Another common rule in trading is never to put on a position unless your possible profits outweigh your possible losses by a ratio of 3 to 1, or at the very least 2 to 1. So, if a particular trade has the potential of losing $100, the profit potential should be at least $200 to $300. This is not a bad rule, but like so many aspects of trading, it is somewhat intangible. Once you have formed an opinion of a market, determined your entry point and calculated the maximum amounts you could win or lose on a trade, you still are left with the uncertainty of the probability of your trade winning or losing, and unfortunately there is not secret formula for removing this uncertainty.

Some traders don't consider probabilities valid at all. The most any trader can do is perform his or her best analysis of the market, and, along with experience and intuition, come up with some rough idea of the probability of success for a given trade. This probability can then be weighed against the reward / risk ratio in selecting trades. For example, would it be better to put on a trade where the reward / risk ratio is four to one and the probability of success is 30%, or would it be advisable to put on a trade where the reward / risk ratio is only two to one but the probability of success is 75%? Using this rule, you'll be ahead of the game by directing resources to the trades with the greatest chance of success.

"Saturday Seminars" - Trading Techniques to Buy Bottoms & Sell Tops

Posted on by lindsay

Big reversal tops and bottoms occur at the peaks and valleys of long term moves. Smaller and tradable tops and bottoms also occur in trending moves. With appropriate timing and a coninuing trend, buying in an uptrend or selling in a downtrend is low risk. Walt will show you how to identify trends and trade bottoms and tops with three mechanical trading techniques.

You will acquire specific techniques for identifying trends and you will learn how to trade with the trend. You will also learn how to anticipate and trade trend reversals. Walt will show you mechanical buy/sell signals applicable to any market, in any time frame.

Finally, he will provide you with some simple, profitable money management techniques to reduce risk and take advantage of the big moves when they occur.

PDF Workbook

Walter BressertWalter Bressert has been using market cycles to trade stocks and commodities since the 1970s when his HAL Commodity Cycles was one of the most widely known advisory services focusing on cycles.

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Saturday Seminars are just a taste of the power of INO TV. The web's only online video and audio library for trading education. So watch four videos in our free version of INO TV click here.

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