Tag: biiwii.blogspot.com

Using the spread between 30 year and 2 year US Treasury yields, we can gauge when policy makers are in control of market participants’ perceptions and when they are losing control to the free market’s will.

Operation Twist was announced in September of 2011 in the aftermath of the first phase of the Euro crisis as the yield curve had exploded higher, taking the monetary stress barometer, gold, with it.  Over bought on unbridled momentum, gold entered an extended correction in line with the yield curve, which complied with policy makers’ goal of calming down the system.  As shown many times in the past, gold and the 30-2 yield curve generally travel together. Continue reading "Systemic Stress is Building, and it’s Bullish (for now)" →

NFTRH 204 went like this… Crazy talk about the Outer Limits and complete control in the opening segment (It’s All Out the Window Now) and a serious talk about the DML (Dear Monetary Leader), deflationary destruction and the Crack Up Boom in the Wrap Up segment.  In between was a whole lot of nuts and bolts functional analysis of the situation.  Anyway, here’s the other half of the bookend…

Dear Monetary Leader is ushering in a brave new world and we will have to be nimble and ever in possession of a functional filter or better yet, bs detector.  I believe this is it, the beginning of the end game.  It is funny to think that so many months ago this letter had come up with another one of its little buzz phrases in ‘i2k12’ (inflationary 2012), which I had imagined holding sway in the second half of 2012 after the deflation scare had reloaded the will of policy makers to inflate.

Now we are here and I must admit there were times when I was brought to my figurative knees with respect to that view.  That is what markets do; they humble you and challenge you to be the best you can be.  That is probably the biggest reason I love this so much. Continue reading "i2k12 Back With a Bang" →

In the run up to Thursday’s FOMC announcement of open ended ‘asset’ (mortgage debt) purchases, ZIRP extension and Twist continuation, NFTRH had been using the average US presidential election cycle, sentiment backdrop and of course technical analysis to stay bullish (with associated rising risk profile).  We had incorrectly minimized the potential for QE right here and now in the interest of not running with an increasingly over bullish herd and with respect to risk management.

Well, that is all out the window now because the US has apparently conspired with Europe to jointly enter the currency depreciation sweepstakes with the US springing out of the gate to a healthy lead.  Sentiment is becoming dangerous, speculation is breaking out and liquidity warning indicators like the Gold-Silver ratio, US dollar, US Treasury Bonds, TED Spread and LIBOR have all been dispatched on a southward journey in the interest of greed, speculation… and desperation.  This is the moment of maximum hubris by Ben Bernanke and powerful policy makers the developed world over. Continue reading "It's All out the Window Now" →