Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Hog Futures

Hog futures in the February contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 67.55 while currently trading at 69.60. I am now recommending a bullish position while placing the stop-loss below the contract low and low yearly standing at the August 5th low of 63.67 as the risk is around $2,500 per contract plus slippage and commission.

The United States and China agreed on a phase one trade agreement, which certainly should pick up demand for pork. China has lost 250 million hogs due to the swine flu as that is why you see hog prices trade higher over the last 2 consecutive sessions and historically speaking, prices look very cheap.

Hog prices are trading above their 20-day but still under their 100-day moving average, which stands around the 72.40 level as prices have been depressed for quite some time because we've had no agreement with China. Still, that situation has changed as I think the risk/reward is in your favor to take a bullish position. I think the 65 level will hold so play this to the upside while making sure that you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the proper risk management strategy.

TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Live Cattle Futures

Live cattle futures in the February contract is sharply higher this Friday afternoon in Chicago up 250 points at 127.60, hitting a fresh contract high. Prices are reacting strongly because of the phase 1 trade agreement with China as most agricultural markets are higher across the board as that is an extremely bullish fundamental factor for higher prices ahead.
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Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

S&P 500 Futures

S&P 500 futures in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3143 while currently trading at 3136 up for the 3rd consecutive session rallying sharply off of the unemployment number, which showed that we added 266,000 jobs which way above estimates as the U.S. economy is on fire.

I had been recommending a bullish position from the 3006 level getting stopped out earlier in the week at 3090, which is a little disappointing. However, you must have an exit strategy as President Trump announced on Monday that no trade deal with China was imminent, which sent prices sharply lower. I'm currently sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the chart structure to improve.

The S&P 500 is now trading above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains higher. I still have a bullish bias and I still believe the holiday shopping season will be outstanding; therefore, that will push prices even higher as I see no reason to be short this market.

Volatility this week has increased tremendously, and that it's not surprising, especially at these elevated levels. I still believe the 3200 levels come year-end is possible. However, the risk/reward is not in your favor to take a bullish position at this time, so I will be patient.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the March contract is trading higher for the 4th consecutive session after settling last Friday in New York at 12.94 while currently trading at 13.16 up about 22 points for the week continuing it's very low volatility. Prices continually grind higher every week. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the March contract settled last Friday in New York at 12.73 a pound while currently trading at 12.74 unchanged for the trading week, continuing it's extremely low volatility.

I have been recommending two bullish positions with an average price of 12.67, and if you took that trade, continue to place the stop loss under the 10-day low, which now stands at 12.46. For Monday's trade, that will be raised to 12.51 as the chart structure is outstanding at the current time because prices have been stuck in the mud.

Sugar is still trading slightly above its 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend remains higher as we need some fresh news to dictate short-term price action as the Brazilian Real has hit a 4 year low against the U.S dollar as that has a negative influence on prices.

The next major level of resistance stands at the 13.00 area. I will be looking at adding more contracts at that level because the stop-loss is so tight; therefore, the risk/reward is in your favor, so stay long.

TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT
VOLATILITY: LOW

Orange Juice Futures

Orange juice futures in the January contract settled last Friday at 100.50 while currently trading at 99.00 down about 150 points for the week as prices are still stuck in a tight four-week consolidation. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the December contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,462 while currently trading at 1,466 up about $4 for the week. However, ending the week on a sour note as all of the interest still lies in the S&P 500, which is hitting another all-time high as money flows continue to come out of gold.

At the current time, I do not have any precious metal recommendations, but I do believe gold prices are headed lower as I see no reason to be a buyer as prices are right near a 3 1/2 month low. Gold prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as the trend is to the downside, and if you take a look at the daily chart, the down trend line also remains intact as optimism about a trade deal with China continues to depress prices in the short-term.

The 10-year note is currently yielding 1.90% as that has rallied from 1.30% just a couple of months ago and that is also another negative after towards gold prices so if you are short stay short in my opinion so place the stop-loss above the 10-day high which stands at 1,517 as an exit strategy.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

S&P 500 Futures

The S&P 500 in the December contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 3090 while currently trading at 3112 up about 22 points for the trading week, hitting another all-time high as the gravy train continues and I still believe it will continue throughout the holiday season. Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

Natural Gas Futures

Natural gas futures in the December contract settled last Friday at 2.45 while currently trading at 2.58 up about 13 points for the trading week as prices hit a five-week high yesterday before profit-taking took place.

Natural gas prices are trading above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend has turned higher as fundamentally speaking the EIA reported Thursday that gas inventories rose 89 bcf higher than expectations of 86 bcf and well above the 5-year average of 65 bcf.

Expectations that the spread of cold temperatures in the U.S. will boost heating demand for gas. The Commodity Weather Group said on Thursday that temperatures would be below normal across most of the lower 48 U.S. states through Nov 14 with "winter-like conditions that include heavy snows in the central U.S."

I am not involved as I still think the price gap that was created on Oct 28 between 2.48/2.50 will be filled soon. Then I will be looking at a bullish position as I believe that the 2.40 will hold, especially as we enter the volatile winter season as price swings will become more violent to the upside.

TREND: HIGHER - MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID
VOLATILITY: AVERAGE

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"