Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,242 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,255 down about $13 for the trading week hitting a fresh contract low as I remain bearish gold and as I have talked about in many previous blogs I think we're headed towards the 1,200 area relatively soon. The precious metals across the board continue their bearish momentum on a daily, and weekly basis as the U.S dollar remains strong, and the U.S equity market also is in a significant bullish trend as the NASDAQ 100, and the Russell 2000 hit all-time highs in yesterday's trade. Money flows continue to come out of the precious metal sector and into the equity market, and I don't see that ending anytime soon. I see no reason to own gold at this time and if you are short, stay short and place the stop loss above the 10-day high standing at 1,267 as the chart structure will also improve in next week's trade, therefore, the risk will also be lowered. Gold prices are trading far under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside as volatility is average at the current time, but investors presently don't want to own anything except for stocks and possibly the crude oil market. I'm not recommending any bullish position in gold as a bottoming pattern has not been formed yet in my opinion as prices still look expensive.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY: SOLID

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract is currently trading at 1,258 an ounce after settling last Friday at 1,254 up slightly for the week still right near a 7-month low as the precious metals, in my opinion, remain very weak. As I've written about in previous blogs, I have a bearish bias towards gold prices, and I still think 1,200 is a realistic level that we could be trading at in the coming weeks. The Trump tariff situation has been established today which has been one of the main reasons why we have seen weaker commodity prices across the board over the last several weeks. Gold prices are trading far under their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is to the downside as demand for this precious metals is weak at the current time as silver, copper, & platinum all remain bearish trading near contract lows once again this week. As I have talked about previously, all of the interest still lies in the U.S. equity market which is slightly higher in today's trade as the U.S. employment number was very impressive. We added 213,000 jobs as money continue to flow out of gold and into the stock market, and I don't see that trend ending any time soon. If you are short a futures contract place the stop loss at the 10-day high standing at 1,274 as an exit strategy as the chart structure will also improve in next week's trade, therefore, the monetary risk will also be lowered so stay short if you already have a bearish position.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING
VOLATILITY:INCREASING

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Pendulum Swing No.5: Back To Success!

It’s time to announce the result of the 5th Pendulum swing pushed this January. In that race, I put heating oil (ultimate futures winner in the second half of 2017) vs. wheat futures (the top loser). The Pendulum effect favored the top loser, i.e., wheat to beat heating oil in the six month period. The image below contains the poll results of your voting for that experiment.

Image 1. Poll results

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Chart courtesy of INO.com

Bingo! The majority of you guessed right choosing wheat as a winner and as you can see in the next chart that wheat has gained +17.56% as heating oil gained only +6.76. I would like to express my gratitude to those who chose the experiment success option for your trust! So after the first failure in the second half of 2017 (4th swing), the Pendulum experiment is back on a winning track! Let’s try it again and see what happens.

Chart 1. Half Year Futures Performance (First Half of 2018)

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
Chart courtesy of finviz.com

This time we will have an interesting race as the winner in the first half of 2018 is not a commodity, but the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) also known as the stock market fear gauge. It gained more than 40%, leaving its rivals far behind amid the roller-coaster ride in the S&P 500.

On the other side, which is red, there is the biggest loser, sugar with an almost 20% loss in the first half of 2018. The supply glut in the sugar market undermined the price for this commodity significantly. Continue reading "Pendulum Swing No.5: Back To Success!"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Crude Oil Futures

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 68.58 a barrel while currently trading at 74.11 up about $5.50 for the trading week up for the 4th consecutive session hitting a 4-year high as this is the only commodity that is experiencing a bullish trend. The next significant level of resistance is around the $80 area as I think there could be a price squeeze in the front month due to the fact that the Trump administration has stated that they will put strict tariffs on any country that buys Iranian oil coupled with the fact that OPEC only increased production by 600,000 barrels as the fundamental picture for this commodity remains very strong in my opinion. Traders reacted very positively off of the API report which was released Wednesday as we had a drawdown of about 9 million barrels as there is robust demand for oil and gasoline as we are consuming record amounts as we head into 4th of July holiday weekend with a record amount people on the roads. Oil prices are trading far above their 20 and 100-day moving average as the trend is higher and if you're extended a futures contract continue to stay long and if you are not participating wait for some price, therefore, lowering the monetary risk to enter into a bullish position. The chart structure is terrible at the current time due to the fact of the exponential run-up in prices that we have experienced over the last several days.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: HIGH

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"

Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery

We've asked Michael Seery of SEERYFUTURES.COM to give our INO readers a weekly recap of the Futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Michael frequently appears on multiple business networks including Bloomberg news, Fox Business, CNBC Worldwide, CNN Business, and Bloomberg TV. He is also a guest on First Business, which is a national and internationally syndicated business show.

Gold Futures

Gold futures in the August contract continued its bearish trend trading lower for the 4th consecutive session hitting a fresh 7-month low trading at 1,270 an ounce. I still see no reason to own this commodity as the NASDAQ 100 hit another all-time high this week and all of the interest lies in the equity market, not gold. In my opinion, if you are short a futures contract stay short as the next level of support is around 1,260 which could be tested in tomorrows trade. I still think we could retest the December 12th low of 1,251 & if that occurs prices could head down to the 1,200 level as a strong U.S dollar continues to impact gold prices as that market is also hovering right near an 11 month high & looks to even move higher in my opinion. Gold futures are trading under their 20 and 100-day moving average telling you that the short-term trend is lower and if you're short a futures contract continue to place the proper stop above the 2-week high standing at 1,313 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. I am certainly not recommending any bullish position as that would be counter-trend trading as this market is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR
VOLATILITY: INCREASING

Continue reading "Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery"